Research & Analytics

December 04, 2011 2:28 PM GMT
In short, should we use the new, highly complex version of xERA or switch to a simpler metric?
November 22, 2011 1:00 AM GMT
Accurately evaluating a player's future performance is essential for building a successful franchise. But, how do we arrive at these judgments?
November 11, 2011 1:00 AM GMT
First, do players get "hot" (defined by a hitting streak) more often than we would expect by chance? And second, do players who have hitting streaks of at least 10 games, show improved performance over the next 10 games? If so, we should target these players.
November 04, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
The question, then, is whether we can estimate the "correct" hr/f for a given player. An even more important question is whether we can use that information to predict regression from one season to the next. In two words: yes and yes.
October 26, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
A statistic frequently used to fuel speculation is the number of doubles a player hits - there is often conjecture that a player with a lot of doubles in one year might turn them some of them into HR the next. But does this actually happen with reliable frequency?
July 14, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
Part two of our series on rookie 2H/1H splits that span two seasons. This week, the pitchers.
July 08, 2011 12:00 AM GMT
Blurring the lines of rookie "seasons" to look for mid-year trends of 2010 callups.
June 23, 2011 12:01 AM GMT
There are many ways to get on base, but none are as dangerous or painful as being hit by a pitch. Bruise Rate, or BRU, measures the rate of HBP per 600 PA—or about one season. Check out the active leaders in BRU.
May 18, 2011 2:01 AM GMT
Many thousands of words have now been written about Toronto's Jose Bautista. No worthwhile forecasting system should have predicted more than 18-24 home runs for him entering 2010. But were there any logical indications that he could have not only beat that forecast, but that he could have more than doubled it?
May 11, 2011 12:00 PM GMT
We compare pitchers' 2010 and 2011 year-to-date performances with swing strike percentages, looking for pitchers where the change in SS% indicates a change in Dom different from what has happened so far.


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