Early-season changes for Bubic, Alcantara, Burnes and May

Kris Bubic is Maintaining the Arm Angle Changes

Besides the velocity sticking around, Kris Bubic was one of my breakout starting pitchers after he made notable changes in 2024. He changed his arm angle by having his horizontal release point closer to his midline by 1.5 inches in 2024 versus 2023. Bubic's horizontal release shifted 1.5 inches closer in 2025.

His arm angle is between 2023 and 2024, especially with his four-seamers, leading to near-elite levels of induced vertical break (18-19 inches). Bubic's arm angle change translated into pitch movement adjustments and more whiffs, evidenced by a 20.8% swinging strike rate via the four-seamers.

Bubic has been locating his four seamers in the upper third of the zone, making it a fun fastball to pair with his slider and change-up. Though the whiffs weren't there via the slider or change-up in his first outing, his change-up resulted in a 40% SwK against the Orioles on Sunday. Seven of Bubic's eight change-up whiffs came down and away from right-handed hitters versus the Orioles, an optimal pitch location for him.

With the additional whiffs from the change-up, the pitch has added over three inches of downward movement and lost over two inches of arm-side fade. Bubic brought his horizontal release closer to his midline by over 2.5 inches (2.6) while maintaining the velocity gains from 2024 as a reliever. When Bubic commands it lower in the zone, right-handed hitters will continue to whiff and make weak contact against it.

Summary

If fantasy managers hesitated on starting Bubic in his two-start week, they had regrets. Though the outcomes have been fun and exciting, the inputs and processes for Bubic to break out aligned. He checks a few boxes we should target, including near-elite four-seam IVB, high-end extension, a filthy changeup to opposite-handed hitters, and a sweeping slider to attack lefties. That's all supported by the release point and arm angle changes from 2024 and 2025.

 

---

Tools. Analysis. Commentary. And most of all—a tradition of winning. Access it all with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com. 

---

 

Sandy Alcantara's Release Point Changes

Alcantara has a vertical release point over 1.5 inches lower and a change of over two inches via his horizontal release point. The horizontal release point shifted two inches closer to the midline of his body, leading to an inch more horizontal fade for his arsenal.

Alcantara's four-seam added over two inches of arm-side movement, with the sinker gaining nearly three inches. With his arm angle, Alcantara's pitches tend to move more horizontally than vertically, evidenced by his sinker, four-seam, and change-up.

Speaking of Alcantara's change-up, we've seen it elicit a near-elite level of whiffs. That's evident in Alcantara's change-up swinging-strike rate of 19.5% in 2025 versus a career average of 17.3%. The sinker, change-up, and four-seamer with additional arm-side run theoretically bodes well against left-handed hitters. However, Alcantara has been having the sinker (39%), change-up (22%), and four-seam (22%) against right-handed hitters.

Meanwhile, Alcantara's curveball has been one of his better pitches against lefties (.000 wOBA, .227 xwOBA). That's notable because he throws his curveball 26.2% of the time against lefties compared to 3.2% (2024), under 1% (2022), and 3.8% (2021).

In the small 2025 sample, Alcantara's curveball induced a 19.2% SwK compared to a career average of 7.8%. For context, Alcantara's slider (15.8% SwK) typically served as his second-best pitch for whiffs throughout his career. So why has Alcantara's curveball worked well in 2025 against left-handed hitters?

Alcantara's curveballs were down and inside the left-handed hitters in 2025. However, he possibly had trouble commanding it, as locations were mostly lower in the zone, but somewhat inconsistent.

Summary

It's early, but Alcantara's control has been an issue, evidenced by a 37.8% ball rate, over four percentage points higher than his career average (33%). After researching post-Tommy John surgery pitcher release points, it's somewhat of a mixed bag, but we've seen pitchers make arm angle changes in spring training, which might stick into the larger sample of 2025.

With the release point adjustments, we've seen movement changes for Alcantara's pitches, mainly via the sinker, four-seam, and change-up. If Alcantara commands and locates a breaking pitch going in the opposite direction from those offerings fading toward the arm side, we'll want to monitor these actionable changes.

 

Corbin Burnes' Cutter Changes

The cutter has been linked to Burnes' successes and struggles. He typically leaned on the cutter throughout his career, but the usage jumped to a career-high rate (66.3%) in 2025. For context, Burnes threw the cutter a previous high of 55.4% in 2022 and 45% in 2023.

He has been pumping cutters to righties (64.8%) and lefties (66.9%). It's been most notable against right-handed hitters, with a previous career-high cutter usage of 53% in 2023. While we don't want to overreact to the usage change after 1-2 starts, Burnes' cutter dropped by nearly two inches more in 2025 (19.4 inches). That's another career high, with 17.5 inches of drop in 2024 and 19.2 in 2023.

His cutter velocity dropped by about 1.5 mph in 2025, similar to his one from 2023 from a vertical and horizontal movement profile. Burnes showed a similar vertical release point in 2025, with a slight shift around two inches (1.8) in his horizontal release closer to his midline. The horizontal release point change with the velocity decline likely contributes to the cutter's movement changes.

Though Burnes' cutter doesn't typically elicit whiffs, it can limit damage, with a .291 wOBA (.322 xwOBA) in 2023 and .335 wOBA (.342 xwOBA) in 2024 versus righties. The small 2025 sample shows his cutter allowing a .579 wOBA (.453 xwOBA) versus right-handed hitters.

However, Burnes' cutter has been relatively consistent against left-handed hitters, which resulted in a .264 wOBA (.281 xwOBA) in 2024 and a .281 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) in 2023. Like the early splits against right-handed hitters, his cutter results have been inflated (.468 wOBA, .401 xwOBA), but don't panic.

Summary

We saw Burnes' swinging-strike rates fall from 17.3% (2021) to 15.7% (2022), 12.4% (2023), and 13.4% (2024). Through two starts in 2025, Burnes's swinging strike rate fell to 12%. That hinted at a near-elite SwK to an above-average one in recent seasons, making us wonder if we should value him as an ace or SP1-type player. If the cutter isn't working, he'll need the slider against righties and the curve or changeup versus lefties to pick up the slack. 

 

Dustin May's Release Point Changes

Lance Brozdowski wondered about Spencer Strider's release points changing after Tommy John surgery. It led to research on several starting pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery by examining spring training release points. Dustin May showed a lower vertical release point by nearly 3.5 inches in spring training.

May's lower vertical release point continued from spring training in the 2025 regular season with a four-inch (4.3) difference, lower than the 2023 season. That, theoretically, should lead to more vertical and horizontal movement across most or all his pitches.

We had a similarly drastic horizontal release point, moving six inches farther away from his midline versus 2023, though it was similar to 2022. That has given him a lower arm angle of 18-19 degrees, dramatically different from his 30-degree arm angle in 2023. 

May's arm angle changes potentially gives him more horizontal movement on his pitches, if possible, with his GIF-worthy sinkers and sweepers. However, the main issue involves fewer whiffs with the east-to-west pitch movement. 

Surprisingly, May's sweeper lost nearly five inches of vertical movement (40.3 inches) and maintained the glove-side horizontal break (16.9 inches) compared to 2023. However, when we compare May's release points and arm angles, we might need to refer to 2022 since those were closer to his early 2025 numbers after Tommy John surgery.

Meanwhile, May's GIF-worthy sinker gained 5-6 inches of downward movement (26.5 inches), yet a similar amount of arm-side fade. That's notable when we consider May's sinker velocity dropped by around two mph compared to 2022 and 2023. The velocity decline and the release point changes would support the movement differences. 

Since May has been using a lower arm angle, his four-seam lost induced vertical break by over three inches. That makes his arsenal even more focused on side-to-side movement than in the past, which might not be positive.

It's worth mentioning that May's cutter lost two mph, and the changeup gained around 2-4 mph of velocity, though he hardly used them in 2025, so tread cautiously. The cutter might be one to monitor because he used it more often against left-handed hitters in 2023 (18.9%) and 2022 (32.6%). 

That's notable because May's cutter resulted in a .183 wOBA (.255 xwOBA) against lefties in 2023, though it was destroyed in 2022 (.463 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). Unfortunately, the new movement profile doesn't suggest success. It might not be worth comparing to two seasons ago before May's injury, but that's what we have for reference.

Summary

One of my more negative bold predictions was to fade all Dodgers' starting pitchers besides May. That was mainly because of the injury risks and the higher real-life dollar values spent toward hurt pitchers in 2024. As the saying goes, don't hate the player, but we can dislike the price in drafts. May fit the mold of a low-risk, high-upside pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation, especially considering the actionable items like his release point changes in spring training and 2025. 

May's arm angle changes can work, though it might be more east-to-west than we would like. The sweepers and sliders with his lower arm angle might be the key to unlocking more whiffs. Don't expect May's SwK to be much more than average at best. 

More From Arsenal Report