Taj Bradley increases his splitter usage
Aug 16 2024
Taj Bradley increases his splitter usage
Through 17 starts, Taj Bradley (RHP, TAM) has provided an $8 R$ for fantasy rosters. The right-hander has improved his ratios in 2024, as he has a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 95 IP. He has lowered his HR/F and induced more ground balls in 2024.
How is Bradley's 2024 arsenal?
Bradley has more than doubled his split-finger fastball usage, as he has increased it from a 13.6% usage in 2023 to a 28.5% usage in 2024. While he has thrown slightly fewer four-seam fastballs and cutters, he has trimmed his curveball usage from 16.7% in 2023 to 9.2% in 2024.
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With his increased splitter usage, how has the pitch performed in 2024?
The pitch is performing well, and his splitter is arguably the best pitch in his arsenal. The splitter's 15.6% SwK is the highest in his arsenal, and the pitch has a 41.9% K%. Throwing more splitters is also helping his GB%, as his split-finger fastball has a 54.5% GB% with a 53% career GB%.
With the whiffs and ground balls, where is Bradley locating the pitch?
As seen in the graph above, his split-finger fastball is largely staying in the zone, and its 51.4% Zone% is the second-highest Zone% in his arsenal. While it can stay in the middle of the zone, many of his splitters are in the bottom third of the zone. Even with its higher Zone%, the pitch has an 80.5% Z-Contact% against. The pitch is in the heart of the zone 28.9% of the time and in the shadow of the zone 39.1% in 2024. His 2024 splitter has a 34.5% Ball%.
When looking at platoon splits, how does the splitter perform versus RHH?
With his splitter's heat map above versus RHH, his splitter is generating whiffs against RHH, as it has a 36.2% K% with a 13.5% SwK vs. RHH. Bradley has a 50% FpK with his splitter vs. RHH. Even with a 30.3% Heart% vs. RHH, the pitch had yet to allow a barrel vs. RHH through 16 GS. Bradley's splitter can also limit hard contact allowed, as the splitter's 30.4% HardHit% against vs. RHH is the second-lowest HardHit% against vs. RHH in Bradley's arsenal.
In 168 split-finger fastballs to RHH, his split-finger fastball's statistics and expected statistics are the strongest in his arsenal. RHH are hitting .167 versus the pitch with six singles and only one HR allowed. The pitch's BA against is backed by a .120 xBA against vs. RHH with a .167 xSLG against vs. RHH and a .201 xwOBA against vs. RHH.
Bradley's splitter effectively induces ground balls vs. RHH with a 60% GB%, and the pitch's 16% FB% vs. RHH is the lowest FB% vs. RHH in his arsenal. The splitter keeps it on the ground and generates an 84 mph exit velocity against when facing RHH.
With his splitter's success in generating ground balls vs. RHH, how does the pitch fare when facing LHH?
As seen in the heatmap above, Bradley has more success in keeping his split-finger fastball in the bottom third of the zone versus LHH. His splitter has a 28.1% Heart% vs. LHH and 39.6% Shadow% vs. LHH.
Bradley has increased his splitter usage to LHH from 21.9% in 2023 to 34.1% in 2024. The increased usage has been effective in supporting his SwK and K%, as his splitter has a 45.1% K% vs. LHH with an 18.1% SwK vs. LHH, which is the highest in his arsenal. His 15.2% CallStr% vs. LHH is the second highest in his arsenal vs. LHH, and his 33.3% CSW% vs. LHH is the highest in his arsenal when facing LHH.
When the pitch isn't missing bats vs. LHH, it has a 56.1% GB% vs. LHH with a 4.9% Brl% against vs. LHH. In 275 split-finger fastballs to LHH, the pitch has allowed four doubles and one HR.
With a few extra base hits allowed, his split-finger fastball has a .177 BA against vs. LHH, .166 xBA against vs. LHH, and it has a .266 SLG against vs. LHH with a .241 xSLG against vs. LHH.
LHH are pulling 63.4% of Bradley's splitters, and the pitch's 90.1 mph exit velocity against vs. LHH is the second-lowest exit velocity against in Bradley's arsenal when taking on LHH.
With the whiffs on his splitter vs. LHH, ground balls the pitch generates, and its expected stats, the pitch can help Bradley's K%, GB%, and HR/F.
When zooming out to both sides of the platoon again, where is the pitch having the most wOBA success in 2024?
As seen in the graph above, Bradley is having wOBA success in most areas of the zone. With only one HR allowed in 422 pitches, his splitter's .200 wOBA against is supported by a .196 xwOBA against. The splitter's 87.8 mph exit velocity against and its .212 xSLG against are the lowest in Bradley's arsenal.
While his 42% GB% is above his 38% career GB%, throwing his splitter more often is supporting a higher GB%. With continued use of the splitter, the pitch can continue to help Bradley's GB% versus his four-seam fastball's 28.2% GB% and 26.3% career GB%.
As seen in the wOBA against and SLG against, his splitter can help his HR/F stay below his 16% career HR/F. With the swings-and-misses it generates, throwing the pitch more has supported his 13.1% SwK.
With the pitch's success, when is Bradley using the split-finger fastball in counts?
Bradley is throwing the pitch in almost every count except for 3-0 counts. With his splitter's 42% K%, it has been an effective offering in two-strike counts, and the split-finger fastball's 41.4% usage in two-strike counts is the highest two-strike usage in his arsenal. Bradley relies on his splitter in 47.7% of 1-2 counts, 43.3% of 2-2 counts, and 39.4% of 0-2 counts. The splitter's 28.6% PutAway% is the highest in Bradley's arsenal, and throwing his splitter in two-strike counts can continue to help his strikeout totals.
Bradley's splitter offers fewer inches of vertical drop compared to MLB average, as his splitter has 28.2 inches of vertical drop in 2024.
With the success of his increased split-finger fastball usage, how is Bradley's curveball faring with its reduced usage?
As his curveball's heatmap above shows, the pitch can find the middle of the zone but also has erratic locations. With 145 curveballs thrown, it has a 20.8% Heart% and 32% Shadow%, but its 16.8% Waste% is the highest in Bradley's arsenal.
With its erratic locations, the pitch has a 50% Ball% in 2024, and hitters aren't chasing it out of the zone. Bradley's 21.3% O-Swing% is the lowest O-Swing% in his pitch mix. His curveball is not missing as many bats either, as its 9.7% SwK is the lowest in his arsenal.
Despite its low SwK, his curveball does feature a 24% CallStr%, which is the highest CallStr% in his pitch pix. Bradley is using his curveball to pitch backwards early in counts to keep hitters off balanced if they are expecting a fastball, as seen in his called strike rate. He has featured his curveball in 18.3% of 0-1 counts and 12.8% of 0-0 counts. He mostly stays away from his curveball when he's down in counts.
When hitters make contact, the pitch has an 80% Z-Contact% against, and its 88.6 mph exit velocity against is the third highest in Bradley's arsenal. His curveball's .167 BA against and .389 SLG against is below his curveball's .221 xBA against with a .431 xSLG against, which is the second-highest xSLG against behind Bradley's four-seam fastball's .573 xSLG against.
In a small sample, Bradley's curveball has generated ground balls with a 58% GB%.
Where are hitters having success versus his curveball?
As seen in the wOBA graph above, hitters are punishing middle-middle curveballs and some just off the zone. Even though RHH have one HR versus 71 curveballs, his curveball has a .385 SLG against vs. RHH with a .430 xSLG against vs. RHH. His curveball has a 36.4% K% with a 9.1% SwK vs. RHH.
Although his curveball can also induce ground balls, throwing more splitters instead of curveballs when facing RHH helps boost his SwK vs. RHH.
Outlook
Ramping up his split-finger fastball usage gives Bradley a strong weapon in his arsenal, as his splitter's K% and SwK back his current SwK. The splitter's heavy GB% supports his higher GB%, and his splitter has fared better vs. RHH when compared to his four-seam fastball. Throwing his splitters for more strikes is also helping his 2024 efforts and skills (127 BPV).
While his four-seam fastball can get hit hard at times (.573 xSLG against), maintaining his increased split-finger fastball usage can help his ratios, GB%, and HR/F. Despite the pitch's success, his 75% S% is above his 70% S%, and his 3.95 career xERA has some doubts about his 3.49 ERA. Monitor Bradley's home-road splits, as he has a 35% home K% versus a 20% away K%. Even though he has a 50% away GB%, he has a 44% away HardHit% against. Bradley does have a more fortunate 82% S% and 25% H% at Tropicana Field, but his 3.25 home FIP is still below his 4.73 away FIP.
So even with the split-finger fastball's effectiveness, Bradley's ERA could finish closer to his 3.69 projected ERA. Monitor his pitch mix going forward, as throwing more split-finger fastballs could help his future results.
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