(*) RELIEVERS: Flamethrowers and vultures

Relief Pitchers

Doug Dennis

Jun 9 2015 11:04pm

(*) RELIEVERS: Flamethrowers and vultures

Doug Dennis

Jun 9 2015

During the traveling road show First Pitch Forums this spring, BaseballHQ.com put up a slide aimed at whether relievers can add value through strikeouts in AL-only or NL-only formats. You will have to be the judge of the value in your own format, but there are currently eight relievers on pace for 100 strikeouts in 2015:

June 5               IP   K  xERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 BPV 
============        ==== === ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===
Betances (NYY)      29.3  49 1.90 0.75 15.0  4.1  0.0 198
Chapman (CIN) (L)   24.3  41 3.14 1.44 15.2  2.7  0.4 134
A.Miller (NYY) (L)  25.0  40 2.06 0.72 14.4  4.0  0.4 191
Y.Garcia (LA)       22.0  36 3.01 1.18 14.7  4.0  1.6 168
Scribner (OAK)      30.7  35 2.24 0.82 10.3 17.5  0.9 193
A.J.Ramos (MIA)     26.3  34 2.51 0.84 11.6  4.2  0.0 160
McAllister (CLE)    29.3  34 3.43 1.57 10.4  3.4  0.6 128
C.Allen (CLE)       23.3  34 3.57 1.50 13.1  2.6  0.4 114

Not surprisingly, Dellin Betances (RHP, NYY) leads relievers in strikeouts, with a 15.0 Dom across 29.3 innings. Betances has 49 strikeouts through two months—on pace for nearly 150 strikeouts in 90 innings. Betances shows no signs of slowing down, and he is used in the exact same role as in 2014 when he broke out. Yankees closer Andrew Miller (LHP, NYY) is not far behind, with 40 strikeouts in 25 innings—a pace of 125 strikeouts in 75 innings. These are two very elite skill sets and they are at the peak of their powers so far in 2015.

Aroldis Chapman (LHP, CIN) is a unique talent from the left side and has a crazy 15.2 Dom, giving him 41 strikeouts in 24.3 innings to date. The Reds would be wise to use Chapman more and get this skill set in earlier innings for multiple-inning saves. Given the Reds' fortunes, it is quite possible that some other team will trade for Chapman and that could affect his strikeout numbers. No pitcher has more pitches over 100 mph than Chapman. That velocity and those strikeouts are part of what owners are paying for when rostering Chapman.

More surprising entries on this list are Yimi García (RHP, LA) and Evan Scribner (RHP, OAK). Garcia had a tremendous spring training and has not really looked back, although he has had some bumps in the road in late May/first week of June. Scribner has been the A's best reliever and his 17.5 Cmd ratio is ridiculous. Scribner has the most innings on the list at 30.7—that may get tamped down later in the season. Note that Scribner also has the lowest Dom on this flamethrower list at a still healthy 10.3.

The big story in Miami's pen was the implosion of closer Steve Cishek (RHP, MIA), now exiled to Double-A. But just as surprising was the breakout of A.J. Ramos (RHP, MIA) with a Dom over 11.0, Cmd ratio over 4.0, no home runs allowed and a 160 BPV. Ramos has 34 strikeouts on the season—a pace of 105 for the year. That's excellent value over the first two months. Marlins observers believe that Ramos can keep it up, with just 26.3 innings logged so far.

Two Indians make this strikeout list, closer Cody Allen (RHP, CLE) who has been scuffling through the season but has been better of late, and set-up Zach McAllister (RHP, CLE) who like Allen, has a 1.50+ WHIP. These relievers were discussed in this column last week; both are pitching at a high level now after starting the season very poorly.

More serendipity with usage than anything, relievers add value by vulturing wins as well. Old-timers will recall Xavier Hernandez and Mark Petkovsek—relievers who entered games down a run or tied and would come up a winner more than other relievers. There are no promises that the current vulture leaders will keep it up, but it is worth noting which teams are using which relievers to vulture wins. Here are the ones on pace for over 10 wins:

June 5               IP   W  xERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 BPV 
============        ==== === ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===
Betances (NYY)      29.3  4  1.90 0.75 15.0  4.1  0.0 198
Robertson (CHW)     21.7  4  2.20 0.88 13.3 10.7  1.2 220
Blazek (MIL)        29.3  4  3.20 0.89  8.3  2.7  0.0 100
Chafin (ARI)        28.0  4  3.43 1.25  6.4  2.2  0.3  80
Benoit (SD)         22.0  4  3.57 0.91  8.6  2.1  1.2  68
Kela (TEX)          24.7  4  3.64 1.26  8.0  3.1  0.4 100
Casilla (SF)        22.3  4  3.90 1.48  8.9  2.2  1.2  77
Hoover (CIN)        21.0  4  3.96 1.05  7.3  1.5  0.0  32

You will note right away that Betances is at the top of this list, too. Betances adds value in every way except saves—most vulture wins, most reliever strikeouts and ridiculous skills that give him a stellar ERA and WHIP. He is the best reliever in baseball over the first two months of 2015 and it is just the save category that keeps him from being the highest earner as well.

Two closers grace this vulture win list, David Robertson (RHP, CHW) and Santiago Casilla (RHP, SF). Robertson has the crazy 220 BPV, so the skills are elite and he comes into save situations and ninth inning ties and converts them. Casilla is a victim of his own up and down skill set with a mediocre 1.48 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9. Casilla may blow a save here and there and then hang on for the vulture win. So far, neither Sergio Romo (RHP, SF) nor Hunter Strickland (RHP, SF) have taken Casilla's job. Note, however, that Casilla is the only reliever on this list with a WHIP over 1.26. Have to prevent runners to vulture wins.

You don't have to play for a winning team, though. Michael Blazek (RHP, MIL) is a Brewer and J.J. Hoover (RHP, CIN) is a Red. Hoover has a particularly poor Cmd ratio, but he hasn't allowed a home run and his WHIP is working at the moment. The Cmd ratio says that will change for Hoover, though and tank his value-add. Blazek is faring better and if Francisco Rodríguez (RHP, MIL) gets traded in July, Blazek could well earn his way toward being the Brewers Plan B closer over Jonathan Broxton (RHP, MIL)--it just has to play out.

Keone Kela (RHP, TEX) is up and coming and has a nice 100 BPV supported by a solid Dom, strong Cmd ratio and he keeps the ball in the park, which is important in Texas. Joaquín Benoit (RHP, SD) is really a luxury on San Diego where Craig Kimbrel (RHP, SD) is the closer. Benoit handles high leverage situations for the Padres, including tie games late.

Andrew Chafin (RHP, ARI) is a curiosity on this list, with a far lower Dom at 6.4 and otherwise non-descript skills. Right place at the right time for the Diamondbacks, but it is hard to see Chafin having continued success.

Next week this column goes back to chart the best xERAs halfway through June.

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