C. Walker, M. King, Keller, Toglia, Tellez

Walker offers steady production … Christian Walker (1B, ARI) enjoyed a breakout 2019 campaign in his age-28 season and aside from an injury-plagued 2021 has offered steady production, including seasons of 36 HR and 33 HR, respectively, in 2022-23. Through 456 PA, he has a .258 BA and 23 HR. How are the underlying skills?

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Brl%	HR/F	Spd/SBO/SB%
2021	445	10/0	.244/.234	8/73	39/22/38	30	106	89/101	6%	8%	103/0%/0%
2022	671	36/2	.241/.263	10/77	38/17/44	25	123	138/138	12%	17%	98/2%/50%
2023	660	33/11	.258/.270	9/78	38/17/45	27	108	135/119	11%	15%	90/7%/100%
2024	456	23/2	.258/.241	11/71	36/15/49	30	115	146/149	15%	16%	79/3%/50%

Still strong, but with a couple changes:

• Walker’s xPX would be a career high and he has never posted a Brl% above 13% in a full season. He should again finish with 30-35 HR.
• His ct% has slipped several points. While it hasn’t hurt his BA, the drop in xBA is notable. 
• His bb% ranks in the 77th percentile and gives his OBP a nice boost.
• The 2023 SB outburst was never likely to be replicated. 

It took Walker awhile to get an extended look at the MLB level, but he finally got that opportunity in 2019 and hasn’t looked back. Since the beginning of 2022, only six MLB hitters have more HR than Walker’s 92 (.252 BA). Though the severity of his Monday oblique injury is still to be determined, the 33-year-old was on pace to again exceed 30 HR; though now his outside shot at threatening his career high of 36 HR is in jeopardy. 

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King rebounds from sluggish start … When we last checked in with Michael King (RHP, SD) back on May 8, he had a 4.29 ERA, 23% K%, and 11% BB% in 42 IP. Since then, he has a 2.73 ERA, 31% K%, and 7% BB% in 82 IP. What changed?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2021	63	3.55/4.15	8%/22%	7%	11.0%	45/23/30	31/74	10%	94.2	100
2022	51	2.29/2.68	8%/33%	6%	16.6%	47/24/28	29/79	9%	96.1	183
2023	104	2.75/3.45	7%/29%	8%	12.2%	42/21/35	32/80	10%	94.3	167
2024	124	3.26/3.62	8%/28%	7%	12.4%	38/21/38	30/76	11%	93.2	138

Improved skills:

• He has done a much better job of pounding the strike zone and missing bats since May 8, sporting a 35% Ball% along with monthly SwK% of 13.6%, 10.7%, and 15.5%.
• After posting a 4.38 xERA in his first eight starts, his monthly xERA has been 3.35, 3.46, and 2.98, respectively, in May-July.
• Overall, the skills look similar to those he posted in 2023 when just 9-of-29 appearances came as a starting pitcher. His velocity is down a tick, but that’s to be expected with the role change.
• King’s 2023 IP total was his highest since 2018 (161 IP in minors), so it will be interesting to see where the Padres cap his 2024 IP.

King began 2024 in disappointing fashion due in large part to poor command. However, he has made adjustments and has pitched extremely well over his last 14 starts. The 29-year-old figures to see some degree of workload management over the final two months, but the skills have gotten better with each passing month, so he hasn’t yet shown signs of slowing down.

 

Has Keller taken a step forward? … After posting career highs in IP and R$ in 2023, Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) entered 2024 with an ADP of 163. Through 121 IP, he has compiled what would be new career bests in ERA and R$. Is it sustainable?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2021	100	6.17/5.13	10%/19%	8%	9.0%	39/25/33	40/65	9%	93.9	54
2022	159	3.91/3.96	8%/20%	8%	9.1%	48/22/28	33/73	10%	95.1	88
2023	194	4.21/3.77	6%/25%	6%	10.2%	43/22/33	34/69	13%	94.6	149
2024	121	3.34/4.00	6%/20%	6%	9.7%	41/22/35	32/76	9%	94.2	118

Probably not:

• Keller’s K% is a couple ticks below the MLB average for qualified starting pitchers (38th percentile overall) and his SwK% offers little hope for upside (20% xK%).
• On the bright side, his control has again been better than average with full xBB% support (33% Ball%).
• He has been aided by some S% and HR/F good fortune, as evidenced by the ERA/xERA gap. It’s also worth noting that his pitcher-friendly home should help him a bit with HR (PNC Park: -14% LHB HR; -24% RHB HR) and has done so thus far in his career (lifetime 10% HR/F in 336 IP at home; 13% HR/F in 316 IP away).

Keller’s heightened focus on pounding the strike zone has carried over from 2023. However, his 38th percentile K% and subpar SwK% stifle his upside. Look for the 28-year-old’s ERA to move closer to 4.00 going forward. 

 

Toglia shows off power … Michael Toglia (1B/OF, COL) made the 2024 Opening Day roster as a reserve, but was optioned to Triple-A in late-April after batting a pitiful .106 with 4 HR in 49 PA. He has been on a tear since being recalled on June 6, blasting 14 HR and batting .247 in 183 PA. How are things under the hood?

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Brl%	HR/F	Spd/SBO/SB%
2022*	582	21/6	.206/.220	7/62	37/24/39	29	106	131/112	8%	8%	106/9%/63%
2023*	489	15/3	.193/.214	8/69	40/18/43	24	106	91/114	6%	10%	97/5%/55%
2024	232	18/4	.215/.253	8/64	36/20/44	23	111	193/162	18%	30%	111/10%/100%
*Includes MLEs

It's a mixed bag:

• The power metrics are in great shape, including elite marks in xPX, Brl%, HH%, and average exit velocity. He also hits lots of fly balls, which enhances his HR upside.
• The ct% and BA issues have persisted, though his xBA and a 66% ct% since June 6 provide at least a glimmer of hope for a slightly less awful BA (lifetime: 63% ct% in 504 MLB PA). 
• Toglia possesses average wheels and doesn't run often, but he's capable of a handful of SB. 
• It's still a tiny sample, but after struggling vL previously, the switch-hitter has launched 9 HR in 78 PA vL in 2024. Of course, that's been fueled by a crazy unsustainable 41% HR/F.
• Interestingly, 16 of Toglia's 24 lifetime MLB HR have come away from Coors (home: .221 BA, .691 OPS, 8 HR in 245 PA; away: .180 BA, .654 OPS, 16 HR in 259 PA).

The former first-round pick has shown elite power thus far in 2024. Though his 30% HR/F is ripe for some negative regression, his blend of top-tier contact quality and lots of fly balls gives him intriguing HR upside. If your roster can handle the BA drag, the 25-year-old is worth adding for the power potential.

 

Tellez heats up … Rowdy Tellez (1B, PIT) got off to a poor start, slashing .177/.239/.223 with 1 HR in 142 PA, but since June 1 he has a .325/.366/.583 line with 8 HR in 134 PA. How are the skills?

Year	PA	HR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%	OPSvL
2021	325	11	.242/.265	8/78	41/20/38	27	112	117/129	12%	12%	.730
2022	599	35	.219/.259	11/77	39/15/45	21	131	144/146	18%	13%	.644
2023	351	13	.215/.225	10/72	38/20/44	25	99	93/119	13%	9%	.530
2024	276	9	.248/.236	6/77	43/18/40	28	100	92/77	11%	7%	.737

Rather lackluster overall, but much better of late:

• His ct% has bounced back after a down 2023. The aforementioned BA spike since June 1 has come with a .284 xBA in June, a .293 xBA in July, and an 80% ct%.
• The horrid start dragged down his xPX. His xPX has been essentially average since June 1 (94 xPX in June, 104 xPX in July) and doesn’t fully support the 21% HR/F he has boasted in June/July. He has tallied a combined 11% Brl% in June/July.
• He often finds himself on the bench vL (lifetime: .691 OPS in 917 PA). Most of his damage has come vR, including 86 of 101 career HR. 

We wrote back in February that Tellez carried some profit potential at his 555 ADP as, when healthy, his 2023 skills were close to his norm and the 2023 ct% decline belied an improved SwK%. The 29-year-old has rewarded those who took a flyer on him with a torrid June/July. There figures to eventually be some pullback and the recent back spasms are a concern, but he can continue to be useful in deeper leagues.

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