Riley, C. Holmes, Muncy, Gore, J. Ortiz

Riley looks to rebound … After averaging 36 HR and a .286 BA per season from 2021-23, Austin Riley (3B, ATL) got off to a poor start in 2024 and finished the season with a .256 BA and 19 HR in 469 PA as a fractured right hand ended his season in August. How are the underlying skills?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%
2021	662	33/32	.303/.264	8/72	38/25/37	38	103	138/111	20%	13%
2022	693	38/44	.273/.279	8/73	38/24/39	32	125	167/150	22%	16%
2023	715	37/38	.281/.262	8/73	41/19/40	33	123	137/138	19%	14%
2024	469	19/25	.256/.253	8/72	36/21/43	31	129	136/162	14%	15%
2H24	176	10/11	.267/.280	6/69	28/28/46	33	137	181/211	20%	19%

They’re still in fine shape:

• The plate skills were steady throughout and the 2H xBA signals there is no reason to worry about his BA.
• Riley suffered some poor HR/F luck in the 1H, as evidenced by xHR. The power metrics came roaring back to elite level in the 2H. There is still 35-40 HR potential.
• As we wrote back in June 2024, it seemed as though Riley’s timing was off just a touch early in the season and that it was only a matter of time before he resolved the issue. Through the end of May, his pull percentage for balls in the air was 14%, but it jumped to 23% from June 1 on as he hit 16 HR with a .275 BA and .531 SLG in 286 PA. He had a combined 20% in that same metric in 2021-23. 

Riley was one of the most consistent performers in the game from 2021-23, so it was surprising to see him struggle early in 2024. An intercostal strain that sidelined him for a couple weeks in May could’ve played a part in that since he looked much more like himself upon his return. The 28-year-old is an excellent bet to rebound in 2025.

---

Get the 2025 season started off on the right foot! Access articles like these and our diverse range of tools with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com. Winning. Fantasy Baseball. Insight.

---

Holmes moves from bullpen to starting rotation … Clay Holmes (RHP, NYM) amassed a 2.85 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 74 saves in 190 combined IP from 2022 to 2024 as a member of the Yankees. He inked a three-year, $38 million contract with the Mets in December and will be a starting pitcher in 2025. How are things under the hood?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	xWHIP	Vel	BPX
2021	70	3.60/2.97	10%/27%	8%	11.9%	68/13/18	29/70	16%	1.28	95.9	142
2022	64	2.54/2.35	8%/25%	7%	14.1%	76/12/12	28/75	10%	1.21	97.0	151
2023	63	2.86/2.88	9%/27%	7%	11.7%	65/18/17	31/75	7%	1.22	96.0	161
2024	63	3.14/2.97	8%/25%	7%	13.0%	65/16/19	34/77	12%	1.24	96.6	154

This is a solid collection of skills:

• His K% dipped a tad in 2024, but a slight uptick in SwK% quells any concern there (27% xK%).
• A 2H BB% spike cost him the closer job in September (11% BB%). His recent xBB% history, including an 8% xBB% in the 2H, suggests that was likely just a blip.
• The xWHIP column sets a fair baseline for what to anticipate in the WHIP category. 
• The extreme GB% helps him avoid HR and work out of jams (lifetime: 0.5 HR/9).
• His fastball velocity ranked in the 88th percentile in 2024. As with all relievers who convert to starting, we can expect a slight decrease in velocity. 
• While he has dominated vR (24% K-BB% in 2021-24), he has had a little trouble vL over that span (9% K-BB%).

Holmes utilized a three-pitch arsenal in 2024, throwing the sinker, slider, and sweeper at usage rates of 63%, 20%, and 17%, respectively. A new kick-change has garnered lots of swings and misses this spring and figures to help him vL. The 31-year-old has said that he wants to throw at least 160 innings in 2025, but that seems awfully ambitious for a guy who hasn’t logged more than 75 IP since throwing 128 IP combined between Triple-A and MLB back in 2018 and has never exceeded 136 IP in any season (2016 at Double-A). 

 

Muncy aims to put injury-plagued 2024 in the rearview … A right oblique strain sidelined Max Muncy (3B, LA) for three months of the 2024 season, but he was productive when in the lineup, batting .232 with 15 HR in 293 PA. How are the skills?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%	vL
2021	592	36/39	.249/.278	15/76	38/21/41	26	122	153/154	23%	16%	.961
2022	565	21/25	.196/.227	16/70	32/19/50	23	125	129/182	13%	13%	.674
2023	579	36/34	.212/.246	15/68	34/18/50	23	104	158/148	22%	15%	.641
2024*	317	16/15	.229/.245	16/67	26/21/56	28	94	170/143	17%	11%	.743
*Includes MLEs

Typical Muncy:

• The power metrics were similar to what we’re accustomed to seeing, keeping 30-35 HR on the table. 
• Lots of strikeouts and a low BA are part of the package, though 2023-24 xBA provides hope for a more palatable BA.
• Elite bb% gives him a boost in OBP leagues.
• He was better vL in the tiny 2024 sample of 76 PA, but issues vL in 2022-23 (.659 OPS in 317 PA) have cost him some playing time. However, it’s worth noting that his h% has been absurdly low vL of late, ranging from 12% to 17% in 2022-24.

Muncy has been a reliable power source since exploding onto the scene back in 2018. Prior to 2024, Muncy had blasted at least 35 HR in four of the past five non-COVID seasons. The 34-year-old still has the skills to make a run at another 35 HR season, but he’ll likely need better results vL in order to avoid slipping closer to a strict platoon role.

 

Can Gore take the next step? … Through the first two months of 2024, MacKenzie Gore (LHP, WAS) posted a 2.91 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 29% K%, and 7% BB% in 59 IP, but he faded to the tune of a 4.43 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 23% K%, and 10% BB% in the 108 IP that followed. What happened?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	xWHIP	vR
2022	70	4.50/4.46	12%/23%	8%	10.9%	37/22/38	33/70	9%	94.7	1.42	.752
2023	136	4.42/4.27	9%/25%	8%	12.5%	38/20/39	35/75	18%	95.0	1.31	.762
2024	166	3.90/3.96	9%/25%	7%	13.0%	39/25/35	35/74	9%	96.1	1.29	.706
1H24	85	3.60/3.75	8%/27%	7%	13.4%	35/27/37	37/76	8%	96.6	1.20	.703
2H24	81	4.20/4.19	10%/23%	8%	12.7%	43/24/33	33/73	10%	95.5	1.39	.711

Things weren’t truly as bad as they seemed:

• The 1H line showed gains across the board, including a 1.6 mph uptick in velocity that propelled his overall 2024 velocity to the 80th percentile.
• He gave back most of the 1H gains in the 2H. The silver lining in the 2H was that his SwK% and xBB% didn’t support the worsened K% and BB%. The enhanced GB% he displayed in the 2H is another positive.
• Overall, an unfortunate h% contributed to a bloated 1.42 WHIP, per xWHIP. 
• He showed some improvement vR, but left-handed batters have given him fits (2024 vL: .834 oOPS, 11% K-BB%; lifetime vL: .815 oOPS; 11% K-BB%). An inflated H% vL hasn’t helped matters (lifetime: 37% H%).

Gore appeared to be turning the corner with his performance through the first two months, but he was unable to sustain it over the long haul. Still, the underlying metrics indicate there was a degree of bad luck involved in the 2H slide and we cannot ignore the promise he flashed in that 1H line. The 26-year-old had three pitches that garnered a SwK% ranging from 14% to 22% in 2024, led by the seldomly used change-up (9% usage), and could just be an adjustment or two away from a breakout campaign.

 

Keep an eye on Ortiz … It was a tale of two halves for Joey Ortiz (SS/3B, MIL) in his first full MLB season, as he started strong before losing steam in the second half, finishing with a .239 BA, 11 HR and 11 SB in 511 PA. Is there reason for optimism as we head into 2025?

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	HR/F	Brl%	Spd/SBA/SB%
2022+	589	14/5	.228/N/A	5/79	N/A	26	N/A	90/ N/A	N/A	N/A	113/6%/68%
2023*	415	5/7	.254/.266	5/77	63/21/21	32	75	78/50	0%	8%	110/13%/61%
2024	511	11/11	.239/.246	11/77	49/15/37	29	98	101/88	9%	5%	134/14%/65%
1H24	251	7/5	.275/.267	14/81	47/17/37	31	99	109/76	11%	6%	114/11%/63%
+Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
*Includes MLEs

Yes, cautious optimism:

• The 1H plate skills, BA/xBA, contact quality (HctX, PX) gains were encouraging.
• A sore neck that cost him roughly two weeks in July may have contributed to the 2H woes.
• His power metrics point to the potential for around 15-20 HR.
• Ortiz owns 85th percentile sprint speed, but subpar SB% has stifled SB output. While it’s just a small sample, he has been more efficient this spring with an 80% SB% in five attempts.

Though he was unable to sustain it, Ortiz enjoyed an impressive May, batting .307 with 4 HR, 10% bb%, and 85% ct% in 88 PA. While he probably overachieved a bit during that stretch, it suggests that there could be another level here beyond what he did in 2024. The 26-year-old is slated to be Milwaukee’s primary shortstop and there is some profit potential near his ADP (270 ADP in the past month). 

More From Facts & Flukes