J. Ryan, Volpe, T. Bradley, Wallner, R. Blanco

Ryan's shoulder strain caused him to miss the final two months... Joe Ryan (RHP, MIN) had a 3.60 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 27% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate in 135 innings. Ryan bounced back after a down 2023 season, but we'll examine whether the skills changed. Should we buy back into Ryan in 2025?

Season	IP	ERA/xERA	WHIP	H%/S%	FB%	BB%	K%	SwK%	HR/F	BPX
2021	26.2	4.05/3.78	0.79	25%/53%	52%	5%	30%	12.0%	11.8%	162
2022	147	3.55/4.25	1.10	29%/73%	53%	8%	25%	12.1%	9.5%	110
2023	161.2	4.51/3.89	1.17	36%/69%	49%	5%	29%	14.2%	14.9%	182
2024	135	3.60/3.54	0.99	30%/69%	45%	4%	27%	13.2%	11.7%	169

Buy back into Ryan, especially if he's healthy:

• After an xERA over 60 points lower than his actual ERA in 2023, Ryan's xERA improved in 2024, aligning with his ERA. That's supported by his skills, evidenced by his K-BB% and SwK. Ryan showed high-end control, with a 32.1% ball rate in 2024, similar to the career average (32%). That's a fruitful combination to boast reliable control and elicit above-average swinging strike rates.
• We saw a slight dip in the overall SwK, due to his four-seamer's SwK falling by over two percentage points to 13.2% in 2024. Meanwhile, the slider (13.8%) and splitter (11.4%) remained similar to his career averages and previous seasons. Interestingly, Ryan's four-seamer added about two mph (94 mph) while losing an inch of induced vertical break (13.8 inches) and 1.5 inches of arm-side movement.
• That's notable because we've seen Ryan's extension numbers increase by 3-4 inches, giving him mediocre to above-average extension metrics. Theoretically, that's a positive change for the four-seamer, which we saw in the results. 
• Ryan's four-seamer allowed a .238 wOBA (.254 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters with a .303 wOBA (.277 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters in 2024. For context, that's better than his results from 2023 versus lefties (.298 wOBA, .259 xwOBA) and righties (.335 wOBA, .298 xwOBA).

We can't deny the high-end skills for Ryan, drawing us on a per-inning basis while projecting about 150 innings or so. It's hard to poke holes in Ryan's profile, besides the potential home run issues as a flyball pitcher, though they haven't been an issue. Make Ryan a starting pitcher target because of his control, strikeout skills, and added extension, leading to a potential ceiling scenario in 2025.

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Massive volume for Volpe in 2024, but is there another level?... Anthony Volpe (SS, NYY) had 21 home runs and 24 stolen bases, with a .209 BA in 601 plate appearances as a rookie in 2023. He followed it up with 12 home runs, 28 steals, and a .243 BA across 688 plate appearances. Did Volpe make skills changes in 2024 to latch onto for 2025?

Season	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	ct%	GB%/FB%	PX/xPX	HR/F	Spd	SB%/SBO	BPX
2023	601	21/24	.209/.237	69%	41%/37%	109/113	15%	113	83%/25%	61
2024	688	12/28	.243/.249	76%	50%/29%	78/80	9%	147	80%/23%	82

Volpe showed skill changes with a path for volume again in 2025:

• Volpe's xBA in 2023 hinted at better results, mainly via the xPX, since he struggled to make contact. Surprisingly, the data showed Volpe making more contact while losing exit velocity, possibly due to more groundballs in 2024. That's evident in Volpe's barrel rate per plate appearance, falling to 2.8% compared to 5.7% (2023).
• Besides the heavier groundball rate, he seemed to avoid selling out for power, given his pull rate dipped to 32.1%, over 13 percentage points above his 2023 numbers. Maybe there's a happy medium of more pulled balls and not sacrificing too much contact.
• Volpe's speed and stolen base opportunities have consistently been a part of his profile. That's evident in the similarly high stolen base opportunity rate while converting them at a high rate, leading us to 25-30 stolen bases as the norm.

Volpe had 51.4% of his plate appearances in the leadoff spot compared to 33.3% in the bottom third of the lineup last season. Volpe should move toward the leadoff spot, with the Yankees losing Juan Soto and Gleyber Torres. That's especially true if his plate discipline skill improvements stick around in 2025. Prioritize Volpe in drafts.

 

Could Bradley take another step forward in 2025?... Taj Bradley (RHP, TAM) posted a 4.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 26% K%, and 8% BB% in 138 innings in 2024. Bradley had a delayed start due to a strained pectoral on his throwing side but dragged us onto the roller coaster ride. New park factors aside, do Bradley's skills warrant a potential step forward in Year 3?

Season	IP	ERA/xERA	WHIP	H%/S%	GB%/FB%	BB%	K%	SwK%	HR/F	BPX
2023	104.2	5.59/4.12	1.39	36%/66%	36%/41%	9%	28%	12.0%	19%	145
2024	138	4.11/3.73	1.22	33%/72%	42%/39%	8%	27%	13.2%	15%	135

Look for Bradley to break out in Year 3 and post career bests:

• Progress isn't linear, but we've seen Bradley's xERA in 2023 turn into his actual ERA in 2024, with a better xERA in 2024. Could that lead to better results in 2025 based on his xERA hinting at improved ratios? We've seen a slight uptick in skills via the SwK improving by over one percentage point. However, the luck factors (H%, S%) fell in his favor compared to 2023.
• Bradley's splitter SwK fell by over 3.5 points to 16.1% in 2024. However, Bradley used his splitter more often overall (26.9%), especially against right-handed hitters from 5.4% (2023) to 19.8% (2024). Bradley had issues against right-handed hitters in 2023, but the cutter (.225 wOBA) and splitter helped him avoid the reverse split challenges in 2024.
• He continued to use the splitter as his second-most used offering versus lefties (33%) up from 22% in 2023. Bradley's splitter has been his best pitch to righties (.258 wOBA) and lefties (.263 wOBA).
• The four-seamer teases us, with near-elite levels of induced vertical break at 18.7 inches, generating flyballs 46% of the time. Home runs have been an issue for Bradley, mainly via the four-seamer since right-handed hitters (.348 wOBA) and lefties (.390 wOBA) crushed the heater. 
• Theoretically, Bradley's four-seamer should perform better via whiffs and outcomes. However, Bradley's four-seamer issues seem to be the lack of extension and command since hitters destroy it in the zone.

We see above-average skills based on Bradley's pitch movement profiles and swinging strike rate. Starting pitchers can overcome home run issues if they elicit whiffs and weak contact with the rest of their arsenal. He appeared to "fix" the challenges against right-handed hitters in 2024, giving us more confidence in the potential to take another step forward in 2025.

 

Can Wallner survive with a brutal contact rate?... Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) finished 2024, with 13 home runs, 26 runs, 37 RBI, and three stolen bases, with a .259 batting average in 261 PA. Wallner started the season on the Opening Day roster, was sent down in mid-April, recalled in early July, and closed the season with a left oblique strain. He teased us with the power again, but can we trust the skills?

Season	PA	HR	BA/xBA	BB%	ct%	h%	GB%/FB%	PX/xPX	HR/F	BPX
2022	65	2	.228/.202	11%	56%	37%	53%/28%	141/48	22%	-41
2023	254	14	.249/.239	11%	62%	33%	32%/47%	176/117	22%	168
2024	261	13	.259/.240	9%	57%	39%	30%/48%	222/176	22%	182

The elite power showed up, but that's a scary contact rate:

• Wallner's contact rate is one of the worst in the league, the third-worst among hitters with 200 plate appearances behind Joey Gallo and Will Benson. Wallner typically made up for the plate discipline challenges by having above-average to elite exit velocity numbers.
• He teased us with a maximum exit velocity of over 116 mph, ranking in the top 2-3% of the league over the past two seasons. However, Wallner's xPX caught up with his output in 2024, with the fourth-highest among hitters with 200 PA. That put Wallner behind Aaron Judge (207), Kyle Higashioka (195), and Michael Toglia (184) in xPX. Wallner should be able to boast higher HR/F rates with the elite xPX and pull-heavy (47.6%) and flyball (47%) approach.
• Unfortunately, the lefty splits remain a concern, evidenced by his 80 wRC+ compared to a wRC+ over twice that versus right-handed pitchers (171) in 2024. It's more drastic in his career, given the 44 wRC+ versus lefties and 167 wRC+ against righties. Though we're dealing with a small sample of 108 plate appearances (18.6%) in his career against lefties, he peaked in 2024 with a .234 wOBA against fastballs via left-handed pitchers while struggling versus other offerings.

We can project around 500 plate appearances, leading to 20-25 home runs as the floor as a strong-side platoon bat. The ceiling outcome is 30+ home runs and his power skills support a higher xBA if he makes enough contact. Wallner's power tools make him an outfield sleeper again in 2025, and fantasy managers must build around the flaws.

 

Is Blanco's breakout season repeatable?... Ronel Blanco (RHP, HOU) posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 24% K%, and 10% BB% in 167 innings. Blanco had been used as a reliever and a starter in his previous MLB stints, but garnered the chance to be a reliable starting pitcher in 2024. There were some red flags in Blanco's profile, but does that make him an automatic fade in 2025 based on the skills?

Season	IP	ERA/xERA	WHIP/xWHIP	H%/S%	GB%/FB%	Ball%	BB%	K%	SwK%	HR/F	BPX
2022	6.1	7.11/5.46	1.89/1.41	40%/64%	20%/40%	38%	13%	22%	16.1%	13%	29
2023	52	4.50/5.09	1.48/1.53	34%/78%	35%/47%	38%	13%	23%	18.2%	18%	51
2024	167.1	2.80/4.06	1.09/1.35	26%/81%	40%/42%	36%	10%	25%	13.5%	12%	91

Expect regression, but Blanco's skills point toward a streamer with strikeout upside:

• Blanco's xERA being over one run higher than his actual ERA is a red flag. That typically tells us the skills don't support the outcomes, though the luck factors (H%, S%) played a role. While Blanco's K-BB% worries us, he elicited an above-average swinging strike rate.
• Blanco needs to generate whiffs if his control remains an issue. He had a 36% ball rate in 2024, which should give us hope for a lower walk rate of around 7.5-8%. That aligns with Blanco's xBB% of 8% per the Baseball Forecaster. While it may not seem like a drastic difference, we could see Blanco's SwK boost the strikeout rate to improve the K-BB%.
• It's worth highlighting Blanco's slider (17.6%) and change-up (16.6%) SwK finished about 1-2 percentage points higher than the league average. Though the movement profiles on the slider and change-up don't pop, Blanco's slider was his most-used pitch (42.1%) and best offering (.210 wOBA) against right-handed hitters besides the curveball he used 6% of the time for a .046 wOBA.
• Meanwhile, Blanco's change-up and slider had identical results, with a .265 wOBA versus left-handed hitters, giving him two pitches to attack opposite-handed players. Blanco's four-seamer possesses high-end levels of induced vertical break, but it doesn't generate whiffs or weak contact to either side of the plate. However, his four-seamer fades over seven inches to the arm side, sometimes leading to right-handed hitters crushing it on the inside corner.

The BaseballHQ projections of an ERA near his xERA and a WHIP near his xWHIP (1.35) suggest a more realistic outcome for him in 2025. If the luck factors regress and the SwK remains consistent, Blanco should be valued as a streaming pitcher with strikeout upside. Don't pay up for a repeat of 2024, but understand the most likely outcome.

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