(*) F/F SPOTLIGHT: Yoan Moncada
May 10 2019
When a top prospect doesn’t turn his pedigree into results after a year or two, there is a natural inclination to move on. Or at least be pessimistic. Hope can turn into disappointment quickly.
Such is the case with Yoán Moncada (3B/2B, CHW), a former top prospect who hasn’t posted anything better than a .750 OPS during his career.
But Moncada’s early returns in 2019 are better than anything we’ve seen from him in the majors before. He’s flirting with a .300 batting average. He’s on pace to break 20 HR for the first time in his career.
Let’s put Moncada under our Facts & Flukes Spotlight to see what—if anything—has changed in Moncada’s toolbox. That exercise will help us determine if his early success is sustainable.
There’s more where this came from to help you win your fantasy league in 2019. Take the title home with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com.
Background
Moncada left Cuba in 2014 and signed with the Red Sox in February 2015. He made his professional debut at Low-A Greenville later that season.
His multi-faceted tools were immediately on full display:
Minor League History
Year Age Level AB BA HR RBI OPS SB Eye ==== === ======== === ==== == === ==== == ==== 2015 20 Low-A 306 .278 8 38 .817 49 0.51 ------------------------------------------------------- 2016 21 High-A 228 .307 4 34 .923 36 0.75 2016 21 Double-A 177 .277 11 28 .910 9 0.42 ------------------------------------------------------- 2017 22 Triple-A 309 .282 12 36 .823 17 0.48 -------------------------------------------------------
Moncada checked in as a top-5 prospect after both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. We rated him a 9B prospect in late 2016.
Moncada made his major-league debut with BOS at age 21 in 2016 after accumulating just 177 AB at Double-A. He struck out 12 times in 19 AB, then was traded to CHW in the Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) deal. He got an extended taste of the high-minors in Triple-A in 2017. Still, it’s fair to say that Moncada was rushed to the big leagues.
Pre-2019 MLB Stats and Skills
Moncada had an ADP in the 150s during 2019 drafts, a reflection of both his upside as a former top prospect as well as the pessimism that comes with consecutive years of underperformance.
Indeed, Moncada generated only $13 in 5x5 leagues during his first full season in 2018, even though he produced decent power (17 HR) and speed (12 SB). Blame a .235 BA for his so-so fantasy return. And it wasn't the product of a fluky hit rate, as his 35% h% actually was higher than what he showed in 2017 (32% h%). The primary reason for his struggles was a continued lack of contact:
Year ct% xBA ==== === ==== 2017 63% .223 2018 62% .213
In 2018, Moncada really struggled to make contact on pitches outside of the strike zone, and even his contact rate on pitches in the heart of the strike zone left room for improvement (heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs.com):
Converting his shaky contact skills into his batting average output reveals that he had many more cold BA zones than hot (Hot Zones courtesy of ESPN.com):
In addition, the balls in play that resulted in hits for the switch-hitting Moncada in 2018 mostly landed in right field (spray charts provided by baseballsavant.mlb.com):
While Moncada didn’t end the 2018 season with a flourish and these warts prevented us from forecasting a breakout this season, some modest growth in his plate discipline late in 2018 gave us more reason for optimism heading into 2019:
Period bb% ct% Eye ======= === === ==== 2018 1H 9% 61% 0.24 2018 2H 12% 64% 0.39
Since it's clear that a high rate of strikeouts has stalled Moncada’s development, even marginal gains there were worth noting.
Those holes in his swing were hiding consistently above-average power and speed skills.
2019 MLB Stats and Skills
Through the first five weeks or so of the season, Moncada has turned his modest production into results:
Year AB BA OPS ==== === ==== ==== 2017 199 .231 .750 2018 578 .235 .714 2019 133 .293 .876
The key for Moncada's quest for consistency can be found in his contact rate, which we've shown has struggled to reach even an acceptable level. At least until this season.
Contact Rate
Year ct% ==== === 2017 63% 2018 62% 2019 73%
When trying to determine if gains in contact rate can stick, there are a couple of additional metrics we can use.
One is O-Swing%, the percentage of pitches a batter swings at that are outside the strike zone:
Year O-Swing% ==== ======== 2017 26.8% 2018 23.3% 2019 27.6%
Moncada is swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone that we’ve seen from him before. Normally, that would be an ominous sign. But it turns out that he’s making a lot more contact on those pitches than he did in 2018:
Year O-Contact % ==== =========== 2017 58.1% 2018 49.9% 2019 57.7%
Another method of analyzing a hitter’s plate metrics is to look at the percentage of pitches he swings at inside the strike zone, called Z-Swing%:
Year Z-Swing% ==== ======== 2017 63.9% 2018 63.9% 2019 66.9%
Moncada is doing a better job of identifying pitches within the strike zone. Is he making more contact against them? Yes, and it’s been a multi-year climb:
Year Z-Contact % ==== =========== 2017 77.5% 2018 79.8% 2019 84.7%
Finally, we can also look at a hitter’s swinging strike rate to analyze the foundation of his contact rate, just like we can do with a pitcher’s ability to generate strikeouts.
Moncada is heading in the right direction there:
Year SwK% ==== ===== 2017 12.6% 2018 12.2% 2019 11.0%
Let's take a visual look at Moncada's contact improvements. His contact heat map so far in 2019 shows a lot more pink and a lot less blue than it did last season, which confirms that he's making a lot more contact on pitches outside of the strike zone as well as making more contact on pitches over the heart of the plate:
Those gains have given him many more hot zones in 2019:
Moncada also is doing a better job of using the whole field, a reflection of his improved approach against lefties (.265 BA vL in '19):
In summary:
- Moncada is swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, but he’s making much better contact on those pitches
- He’s swinging at significantly more pitches inside the strike zone, and making a lot more contact on those pitches too
- His heat maps and hot zones reflect those adjustments
- His swinging strike rate is in the midst of a multi-year reduction
- In total, there is good reason to believe that Moncada’s gains in contact rate can stick
In fact, he has managed a 70%+ ct% against both lefties and righties after never reaching that level against either-sided pitcher.
Moncada’s increased contact rate gives much better support to his near-.300 BA. Check out his xBA trend:
Year xBA ==== ==== 2017 .223 2018 .213 2019 .271
Power
Moncada consistently has shown good power skills over his career, but they haven’t reached the levels suggested by his scouting reports. But they are continuing to inch in the right direction:
Year PX xPX ==== === === 2017 121 112 2018 123 113 2019 135 116
A batter’s home run per flyball rate (HR/F) can also impact his power output. When big swings in HR/F are not accompanied by supporting changes in his flyball distance, there is reason to be pessimistic. While Moncada's average batted ball distance has dipped in 2019, his average flyball distance is on a steady upward trajectory:
Year HR/F Flyball Distance ==== ==== ================ 2017 18% 314 ft 2018 12% 321 ft 2019 21% 351 ft
This means that we can't dismiss Moncada's jump in flyballs leaving the park as a fluke that's likely to regress.
Furthermore, Moncada has shown an improved ability to barrel the ball so far in 2019. Only 12 bats have barreled more balls than Moncada (data courtesy of MLB Statcast):
Likewise, Moncada rate of hard-hit balls as measured by exit velocity can validate a hitter’s power.
Moncada’s early exit velocity also is some of the best in the game:
In summary:
- While Moncada’s current HR/F isn’t supported by his flyball distance, his power skills and home park give him the right recipe for power
- Further gains in his power skills are supported by his upper-tier barrel rate and exit velocity
Speed
A glance at Moncada's stolen base output in the minors (36 SB in 228 AB at High-A in 2016) shows that he has the raw speed to be a true multi-category producer at his peak.
Moncada's speed skills suggest that he carries the potential for double-digit steals, but it's no longer reasonable to expect anything close to the production he showed on the basepaths in the minors:
Year Spd ==== === 2017 133 2018 128 2019 111
MLB Statcast provides a Sprint Speed metric that aims to measure a player's foot speed. Moncada is trending in the wrong direction there too, which confirms that his speed skills might be tapped out:
Year Sprint Speed Rank ==== ================= 2017 57th 2018 71st 2019 107th
Conclusions
There’s a lot to like about Moncada’s quick start to the season:
- The gains in his contact rate come with some pretty strong underlying support. If those hold, he’ll be able to sustain a lot of the batting average gains he has shown.
- The ingredients for more power are there. He’s posting barrel rates and exit velocities that support further growth, and his average flyball distance keeps going up.
- After posting an overall BPV of 15 and 9 during his first two seasons in the majors, he’s carrying a 50 BPV now. That’s a reflection of the overall gains he has made in 2019.
- While Moncada's BA growth and HR potential are for real, it's hard to see him developing into a 20+ SB producer due to his declining foot speed, even if his improved contact will give him more stolen base opportunities.
Moncada's early-career inconsistency likely was fueled by the fact that he was promoted to the majors before he was ready. At age 24, the window to buy low on this post-hype version of Moncada is closing quickly.
More From Facts & Flukes
Is Cole Ragans a legitimate ace? We'll examine the skills and luck factors for Ragans, Josh Lowe, Gavin Williams, Matt Wallner, and Seranthony Domínguez.
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing 2024 season, but at least his power has returned in the second half. How are things under the hood? Plus, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ezequiel Tovar, and Carlos Estévez.
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill runs hot, David Bednar looks for better results, Spencer Steer cools off lately, Paul Sewald loses some skills, and Luis García increases his R$.
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
If Royce Lewis stayed healthy, he could put up massive numbers. We'll look at the skills and luck factors for Lewis, Bryan Woo, Jose Siri, Osvaldo Bido, and Dylan Carlson.
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
After belting 40 HR in 2022 and 46 HR in 2023, Pete Alonso has 27 HR through 556 PA. How are things under the hood? Plus, Zac Gallen, J.D. Martinez, Michael Kopech, and Joey Bart.
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
