(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Tellez, I. Anderson, Segura, Freeland, Crawford
May 24 2022
Tellez flexes barrels in 2022... With 11 HR in 2021, Rowdy Tellez (1B, MIL) was a post-300 pick at a 349 ADP in 2022 fantasy drafts. In 2022, he has increased his home run pace, as he has nine HR in 144 plate appearances. How are his skills behind the results?
Year PA HR xHR BA/xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX QBaB Brl% ==== === == === ======== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== ==== 2018* 501 15 4 .263/.268 7 78 38/26/36 31 115 106/138 CCd 12% 2019* 514 27 20 .249/.257 8 69 39/24/38 30 99 138/114 BCc 13% 2020 127 8 7 .283/.288 9 82 46/20/34 28 123 125/ 97 BCc 8% 2021* 383 14 16 .242/.252 7 77 41/21/38 27 112 104/111 ACf 12% 2022 144 9 N/A .244/.258 8 73 36/13/51 26 118 170/186 N/A 19% *-Inc. MLEs
His power metrics back his power, and he's making hard contact:
- His career-high Brl% in the 97th percentile and elite xPX firmly support his power. While he has a 39% career FB%, his 19% career HR/F and home park (+15 LHB HR) can help his power efforts.
- An above-average HctX says he deserves a little better BA, as seen in his xBA. He has a .247 career BA with a 74% career ct% and 28% career h%.
- According to Statcast, his 49.0% HardHit% is in the 87th percentile, and his xBA is in the 83rd percentile.
With his only double-digit R$ finish in 2020, Tellez's early power skills (64 BPV) are a fact. He is supporting his increased home run power with a higher Brl% and xPX, and his home park could continue (seven home HR) to boost his HR results. The hard contact he makes should keep his BA playable. With a 75% projected PT at 1B, those fantasy managers that rostered Tellez should enjoy the power results and counting stats going forward.
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Anderson's skills slip early... As Ian Anderson (RHP, ATL) settles into the National League with almost 200 career IP, his 2021 and 2022 results have not been as strong. Through seven games started, he has a $3 R$. How are his early 2022 skills?
Year IP ERA/xERA BB% K% K-BB Ball% SwK Vel G/L/F H%/S% HR/F ==== === ========= === ==== ==== ===== ==== ==== ======== ===== ==== 2018# 20 2.87/2.47 11% 26% 15% 38% N/A N/A N/A 31/74 N/A 2019^ 137 4.77/4.37 12% 25% 13% 39% N/A N/A N/A 32/69 N/A 2020 32 1.95/3.45 10% 30% 20% 39% 12.3 94.1 53/20/28 28/82 5% 2021 128 3.58/4.05 10% 23% 13% 39% 12.4 94.6 49/20/31 28/74 15% 2022 36 3.75/4.99 12% 16% 5% 40% 12.6 93.6 48/19/33 25/75 11%
His early skills (17 BPV) have been the lowest of his career:
- Even with losing a tick of velocity, he's maintained his SwK with a change-up (20% SwK) and curveball (14.5% SwK) that create swings and misses. He has a 23% career K%.
- An elevated Ball% hasn't helped, and his BB% is in the 19th percentile. Even with a 10% career BB%, his Ball% carries some risk.
- He has a 49% career GB%, and he has a 58% career GB% with his change-up. He has posted a 13% career HR/F, 27% career H%, and 3.96 career xERA.
While he can struggle with control at times, his change-up does a good job of missing bats and inducing ground balls. With a low fastball spin that is missing fewer bats (6% SwK), his 2022 results may not feature the upside from his early first-round pick status in the 2016 MLB Draft. Even though he can help roster's ERA, his rising WHIP could make him more of a mid-rotation arm for most formats. With his below-average skills, another single-digit R$ season looks possible.
Segura starts quickly... To start the 2022 season, Jean Segura (2B/SS, PHI) has built on his 2021 success. With a $21 R$ that put him near pick 200 in 2022 fantasy drafts, he's providing across-the-board contributions. Can he continue to help rosters?
Year PA HR SB BA/xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX Spd Brl% ==== === == === ======== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== ==== 2018 632 10 20 .304/.272 5 88 51/19/29 33 84 63/ 59 123 4% 2019 618 12 10 .280/.291 5 87 52/21/27 30 100 72/ 61 112 3% 2020 217 7 2 .266/.240 11 77 48/18/34 31 96 80/ 64 156 6% 2021 567 14 9 .290/.275 7 85 52/19/29 32 100 79/ 68 107 6% 2022 133 6 5 .293/.271 7 83 50/20/30 31 112 84/ 71 78 7%
Yes, he can help in all five categories:
- Although his Spd has dropped, his Sprint Speed is in the 64th percentile, and he has an 83% SB% with a 17% SBO% in 2022. He has a 136 career Spd.
- An increase in HctX pairs well his ct%, and he has a .285 career BA.
- His below-average xPX and Brl% in the 42nd percentile have some doubts about his 19% HR/F when compared to his 9% career HR/F. When he hits a fly ball, he has an 89.9 MPH exit velocity with a 299 feet average fly ball distance in 2022.
Even if his power pace slows with a lower HR/F, there is plenty to like in his variety of skills. As a high-contact hitter that makes hard contact, he can provide an above-average BA. While he has lost some Spd early, his 20% career SBO% and 75% career SB% back a chance at a double-digit SB season. Add in some counting stats, and his well-rounded profile fills in nicely on most fantasy rosters.
Freeland's ratios can sting... When we last checked in on Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL), he was in the middle of a 2021 second half run that featured a 3.80 ERA. His 2022 results have not been near the same quality. Are there signs of hope in his skills?
Year IP ERA/xERA BB% K% K-BB Ball% SwK Vel G/L/F H%/S% HR/F ==== === ========= === ==== ==== ===== ==== ==== ======== ===== ==== 2018 202 2.85/4.19 8% 20% 12% 36% 9.6 91.6 46/19/35 29/80 8% 2019 104 6.73/5.30 8% 17% 8% 36% 9.9 91.9 47/21/33 32/62 22% 2020 71 4.33/4.72 8% 15% 8% 37% 9.4 91.9 52/23/35 31/73 16% 2021 121 4.33/4.35 7% 20% 13% 36% 9.2 91.4 45/21/34 32/75 16% 2022 43 4.85/4.42 7% 17% 11% 36% 10.7 90.6 46/26/28 37/70 10%
His below-average skills (79 BPV) aren't that hopeful:
- Throwing his slider (25.8%) more often has slightly boosted SwK. He has an 18% career K%.
- While his H% hovers above his 31% career H%, his 41% HardHit% against is in the 39th percentile. He has a 48% career GB% with a 4.39 career xERA.
- His HardHit% allowed and an xwOBA in the 24th percentile could keep his WHIP elevated. Pitching in Coors Field can add to the hits with a +12 LHB BA and a +22% RHB BA.
Even though he did improve his 2021 second-half skills, his early 2022 skills don't offer many hopeful signs ahead for the lefty. Although a H% swing could help his ratios, his home park and the number of hard-hit balls he allows could continue to keep his ratios higher than MLB average. Outside maybe a few mono leagues, his results can hurt more than help.
Crawford has a slow start to 2022... In his 2021 season, Brandon Crawford (SS, SF) posted a career year with five-category contributions and a $30 R$. His 2022 season hasn't been much of an encore so far, as he has a $9 R$. Can he turn it around in 2022?
Year PA HR/SB xHR BA/xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX Spd SBO% ==== === ===== === ======== === === ======== == ==== ======= === ==== 2018 594 14/ 4 13 .254/.258 8 77 44/25/31 31 103 88/ 91 77 6% 2019 560 11/ 3 15 .228/.252 9 77 48/23/28 28 104 69/106 78 4% 2020 193 8/ 1 7 .256/.259 8 73 42/23/35 31 102 127/123 72 8% 2021 549 24/11 33 .298/.266 10 78 40/19/41 34 101 126/137 103 10% 2022 148 3/ 1 N/A .223/.234 9 78 46/18/36 27 55 71/ 61 106 6%
Even though his career skills support improvement, his results will likely stay below his 2021 performance:
- A below-average xPX, lower FB%, and a lower HctX have contributed to a slower power pace in 2022. After his 12% Brl% in 2021, he has an 8% Brl% in 2022. When hitting the ball in the air, he has a 90.2 MPH exit velocity (94.8 MPH in 2021) with a 301 feet average fly ball distance. (333 feet in 2022) He has a 34% career FB% with a 10% career HR/F, and he has a 108 career xPX with a 102 career HctX.
- Even with a lower HctX, his ct% is consistent. According to Statcast, his 29.7% HardHit% is in the tenth percentile. He has a 30% career h% with a .253 career xBA.
- His SBO% has dipped to his 6% career SBO%, and he has a 56% career SBO%.
While some better h% fortune should help improve his BA to improve, his 2022 skills (20 BPV) claim that most of his results are a fact. Although his career skills say his HR pace should pick up, his lack of SB success could keep his SB total below his 2021 SB result. After hitting fourth in the lineup earlier in 2022, he has been hitting sixth or seventh in the San Francisco lineup over the last week. His ability to contribute in most categories with a chance at a double-digit R$ should keep him viable for most leagues.
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