(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Syndergaard, C. Anderson, Rosario, Cervelli, Winker
May 4 2018
Thor dominating again ... After missing most of the 2017 season with a torn lat muscle, Noah Syndergaard (RHP, NYM) was a wild card heading into 2018, carrying a ton of upside, but also a lot of risk. He eased concerns with his spring performance, and has been pretty dominant through his first seven starts, striking out 49 batters in 40.1 innings. Can owners relax and be confident in him going forward?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2015* 180 2.99 2.87 1.9 9.8 5.1 64% 13% 97.1 46/20/34 29 76 14% 145 2016 184 2.60 2.90 2.1 10.7 5.1 64% 15% 98.0 51/22/27 34 79 9% 164 2017 30 2.97 2.75 0.9 10.1 11.3 56% 14% 98.3 58/19/24 36 69 0% 194 2018 41 3.10 2.81 1.3 10.8 8.2 59% 14% 97.3 48/24/28 36 74 10% 185
Syndergaard hasn't missed a beat:
- His velocity is down slightly, but he's missing bats at his typical rate, and racking up a lot of strikeouts in the process.
- Always stingy with the walks, he's really kept them to a minimum this season, an encouraging sign coming off injury. His Ctl history combined with a lower than usual FpK hint at a few more walks going forward, but don't expect it to be a problem.
- He keeps the ball on the ground pretty well, and plays in a park that slightly suppresses home runs. After serving up two home runs on Opening Day, he's allowed only one since, and should keep his home run rate pretty low.
Syndergaard is showing no signs of rust, and has eased concerns that his skills wouldn't be quite as elite coming off a major injury. He is dominating opposing batters once again, and should continue to be among the highest skilled pitchers in the game as long as he's on the mound. The F Health grade is well-deserved, though, considering the injury he suffered in 2017 plus the elbow issues he has dealt with, and never had surgery for. Bottom line, not much has changed regarding Syndergaard—he is sure to be in the Cy Young conversation by season's end if healthy, but still carries more risk than most other top tier hurlers.
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What can Anderson do for an encore? ... Coming off a breakout 2017 season, Chase Anderson (RHP, MIL) looks to be off to a pretty solid start, with a 3.38 ERA through his first seven starts. But underneath the hood, is there any cause for concern?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK Vel G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ==== ======== == == ==== === 2014* 153 3.23 3.79 2.7 7.9 2.9 63% 10% 91.0 40/24/36 30 78 14% 82 2015 153 4.30 4.16 2.4 6.5 2.8 62% 8% 91.5 42/24/34 30 69 11% 74 2016 152 4.39 4.75 3.1 7.1 2.3 58% 9% 91.1 36/23/41 29 74 15% 57 2017 141 2.74 4.11 2.6 8.5 3.2 61% 11% 93.1 39/18/43 27 79 9% 99 2018 40 3.38 4.63 3.2 6.1 1.9 62% 8% 91.9 39/17/44 21 81 16% 41 *Includes MLEs
Anderson's current skills don't resemble those of a season ago:
- He hasn't held the velocity gains he made in 2017, and isn't fooling many batters, as shown by his weak SwK and Dom.
- The walks are up a bit, and he served up four free passes in his most recent outing, his most since July of 2016.
- He's further proving that he is a fly ball pitcher, which is dangerous when pitching half one's games in a park that increases LHB HR by 31 percent and RHB HR by eight percent.
- He has benefited from some good fortune, as balls in play aren't finding holes, and he's stranding a very high percentage of base runners.
Anderson's ERA looks good on the surface, but his skills have taken a turn for the worse. He's lost some zip on his fastball, isn't missing bats, is walking more batters, and his fly ball rate continues to creep up. Anderson looks like even more of a long shot to repeat last year's performance than he did a month ago, and owners may be wise to heed xERA's warning, and try to sell while his value is still pretty high.
Rosario off to slow start ... As a 21-year-old in 2017, Amed Rosario (SS, NYM) showcased his power/speed combo following his August call-up, hitting four homers and swiping seven bases in 165 at-bats. But as the second month of 2018 gets underway, he's still searching for his first tally in either category. What are the chances he starts to produce soon?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== == === === === 2016* 214 2/5 .307 N/A 8 72 N/A 42 N/A 83 N/A 114 11% 2017^ 558 10/21 .267 .246 4 77 51/20/29 33 75 65 73 169 23% 2018 84 0/0 .226 .216 4 71 47/18/35 32 92 64 103 138 12% *MLEs ^Includes MLEs
Rosario's plate approach needs some refining:
- After improving his contact rate in 2017, his strikeouts are back up. On a positive note, after ranking fourth in percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone last year (Min. 150 PA), he's cut the rate from 46 percent to 40 percent this season.
- He got on base at a .392 clip at Double-A in 2016, and .367 in Triple-A last year, but has shown no virtually no patience in the majors. He took only three walks in 170 plate appearances in 2017, and four in 84 plate appearances this season, resulting in a three percent walk rate for his young career.
- He entered 2017 with just 10 home runs in over 1,500 career professional plate appearances, albeit at a young age, then hit 11 homers combined between Triple-A and the majors. He will hit one again at some point, but his modest power metrics suggest double digits may be a stretch.
- Speed is his greatest strength, but he's been caught on both stolen base attempts in 2018. Both his inability to get on base, and in turn, his spot low in the batting order, aren't creating opportunities to run.
Rosario was productive from a fantasy standpoint following his call-up last year, but the skills left much to be desired. Still, it was reasonable to expect some growth for the 22-year-old heading into 2018, but he's fallen flat so far, as he's striking out more, showing very little power, and not contributing on the base paths. The future is still extremely bright for Rosario, and this could potentially be a good time to buy low on him in a dynasty league. But while he's still a good bet for double digit steals in 2018, his skills and batting order position suggest he won't be making much of a short-term impact in the other categories.
Cervelli showing unexpected power ... Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) is using a new batting stance, and has been one of the more surprising players during the first five weeks of the 2018 season. His slugging percentage is up more than 200 points from last year, while he's just three home runs away from his career high of seven. What the heck is going on, and can it last?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === 2014* 172 2/1 .274 .247 7 73 44/26/30 36 112 97 126 6% 97 2015 451 7/1 .295 .249 9 79 52/21/27 36 106 69 100 7% 128 2016 326 1/6 .264 .236 14 78 56/20/24 34 86 44 59 2% 99 2017 265 5/0 .249 .246 11 75 52/21/27 31 100 75 101 9% 106 2018 80 4/0 .313 .275 10 81 34/16/49 34 122 138 120 12% 122 *Includes MLEs
It appears Mr. Cervelli has made a conscious decision to hit for more power:
- Always an extreme ground ball hitter, he currently ranks 15th among all qualified hitters in fly ball rate so far in 2018.
- He's making way more hard contact than usual, and his power skills now have him looking like a player with some pop.
- Not only has the power improved, but Cervelli has also improved his contact rate. His xBA says he's lucky to be hitting over .300, but also that he's showing significant improvement from years' past.
- He possesses very good speed for a catcher, but has stolen more than one base just two times, in 2011 (4) and 2016 (6). The potential is there for a handful of steals, but don't count on it.
Cervelli's new approach has worked wonders for his numbers early on. Instead of simply providing a decent batting average, he's showing plenty of power, with an even better average. Odds are very much against Cervelli maintaining his current pace, but this looks like a situation where we need to take notice that he's made some changes, and at least slightly adjust expectations. He's not likely to be a huge difference maker for his owners, but should continue to hit for a solid average, and another 10-12 home runs appears well within reach.
Winker's power lacking ... Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) had quite an impressive big league debut in 2017, putting up a .298/.375/.529 line with seven home runs in 137 plate appearances. This came after he connected for a total of five home runs in 795 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Fast forward to 2018, and a homerless April begs the question: was his late year power surge a fluke?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd/SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== == === ==== ======= 2015* 443 13/7 .264 N/A 13 78 N/A 31 N/A 96 N/A N/A 95/8% 2016* 380 3/0 .280 N/A 12 82 N/A 33 N/A 55 N/A N/A 80/0% 2017^ 420 9/3 .283 .247 10 81 53/16/31 33 118 77 100 23% 80/6% 2018 83 0/0 .313 .278 15 78 31/34/35 40 114 69 74 0% 84/0% *MLEs ^Includes MLEs
Don't count on another power explosion from Winker:
- He certainly makes a lot of hard contact, but his fly ball rate, PX, and xPX have all been below average since his call-up last year. Even in a home park that increases LHB home runs by 19 percent, this isn't the type of profile that can support an elevated home run per fly ball rate like he had in 2017.
- He was known for his outstanding hit tool during his rise through the minors, and is a career .300 hitter across all levels. His line drive rate and hit rate won't stay quite this high, but he should deliver a strong batting average for his owners.
- His knack for drawing walks gives him an additional boost in OBP leagues, and also has helped him lock in a spot near the top of the order, which obviously helps the counting stats.
- Winker used to make minor contributions on the bases, but didn't attempt a steal in 2016, and was successful on just three of eight tries last year.
Winker's power has been lacking this season, but that shouldn't come as too much of a surprise based on his performance at the Triple-A level, and his call-up report last April saying "he'll probably never hit more than 20 HR in a season." He simply doesn't possess the kind of power he showed during the final two months of 2017. Winker does have the potential to still reach double digit homers, though, and his line drive stroke and placement at or near the top of the order should yield a high BA and plenty of runs, making him a reasonably valuable piece in all formats.
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