(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Suzuki, Quintana, Callaspo, F. Rodriguez, B. Miller
Jul 30 2013
Age is catching up to Suzuki…In the midst of a two-year contract, Ichiro Suzuki (OF, NYY) will celebrate his 40th birthday in a few months. While many thought his playing time would decline this year, injuries to others have kept him a stalwart in the Yankees’ outfield.
Year AB BA xBA vsRH bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX Spd SBO SB ==== === ==== ==== ==== === === == ======== == === === == 2009 639 .352 .289 .359 5 89 38 56/18/26 66 157 17% 26 2010 680 .315 .271 .318 6 87 35 57/17/25 55 136 23% 42 2011 677 .272 .275 .268 5 90 30 60/19/21 40 124 24% 40 2012 629 .283 .292 .283 3 90 30 51/25/24 63 127 23% 29 2013 359 .279 .273 .245 5 89 30 52/21/27 56 137 18% 15
While still productive, Suzuki’s numbers have declined:
- His ct% remains elite, but his percentage of hard-hit balls (18% the past two years compared to low-20s earlier in his career) has decreased. He’s simply not doing as much when he makes contact.
- Early in career, Suzuki’s h% was routinely in the upper 30%. That hasn’t been the case for a few years, so his BA has dropped below .300.
- While he typically does well against RHP (career .316/.361/.416), he’s struggling this year (.245/.295/.328).
- While Suzuki’s SBO is down, he still runs frequently enough to generate decent SB totals.
On his way to the Hall of Fame, Suzuki is aging better than most players nearing 40 years old. But not surprisingly, his skills are fading. If you’re looking for some stolen bases over the rest of the season, Suzuki makes an acceptable target—just don’t expect production elsewhere.
Quintana showing skills growth…While trade rumors swirl on the south side of Chicago, a young, unheralded starter has quietly put up solid numbers. While not matching the star power of Chris Sale (LHP, CHW) or Jake Peavy (RHP, CHW), José Quintana (LHP, CHW) has become a mainstay in the White Sox rotation.
Year IP ERA xERA vsRH Ctl Dom Cmd H% S% G/L/F hr/9 hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== ==== === === === == == ======== ==== ==== === 2012* 185 3.65 4.03 .284 2.8 5.7 2.0 30 74 47/22/31 0.7 11% 56 2013 127 3.55 3.99 .232 2.6 7.0 2.7 28 74 44/18/37 1.0 10% 78 *- inc MLEs
The 24-year old Quintana has stepped up this year:
- His Dom has gone up. Combined with fine Ctl, his Cmd is heading up to the 3.0 level.
- He’s dominating righties. While he gave up a .284/.349/.426 line against them last year, he’s limiting them to .232/.288/.370 in 2013.
- He’s also gained some speed on his fastball; it averaged 90.1 mph last year, 91.3 this year.
- His improved dominance is seen in his 52/14 PQS-DOM/DIS in 21 starts. He was at 32/32 in 2012.
xERA shows that Quintana’s ERA may rise over the last couple of months of the season. Even so, solid growth makes him an intriguing pickup, especially in keeper leagues.
Ct% alone not helping Callaspo…When you check out HQ’s list of top batting average skills in the AL, you see a bunch of familiar names. Miguel Cabrera…Robinson Canó…Mike Trout…Alberto Callaspo (3B, OAK). Wait, what? Callaspo takes his batting skills to Oakland, where he'll play second base.
Year AB BA xBA vsLH bb% ct% h% G/L/F HR PX hr/f ==== === ==== ==== ==== === === == ======== == == ==== 2009 576 .300 .283 .361 8 91 32 31/17/42 11 93 5% 2010 562 .265 .270 .233 5 93 27 45/18/38 10 67 5% 2011 475 .288 .262 .306 11 90 31 41/22/37 6 60 4% 2012 457 .252 .255 .306 11 87 27 44/21/36 10 68 7% 2013 290 .255 .283 .262 10 93 26 41/26/33 5 59 6%
Despite the lack of star power, Callaspo does have a fine plate approach:
- He walks a lot, and doesn’t strike out much. Last year was the first time his ct% dropped below 90%, but he’s recovered his form.
- Callaspo doesn’t have the power of a prototypical 3B, but he’s good for a few HR a year. Low FB% and hr/f limit his power upside. The move from Angel Stadium to O.co Coliseum won't matter much, since they both depress power.
- The lack of power means Callaspo’s value is dependent on h%. It’s low this year. xBA shows that there is BA upside over the next couple of months.
- He usually rakes vs LHP (career .301//345/.416), but he’s not doing as well this year (.262/.323./405).
Callaspo remains, as always, a good contact hitter with little power or speed. If you’re in need of BA down the stretch and have an opening at 2B or 3B, he could help out. But there are likely to be better options in shallow leagues.
ERA correction looms for Rodriguez …With his recent trade back to the American League, Francisco Rodríguez (RHP, BAL) finds himself in the midst of a pennant race. Rodriguez put up phenomenal numbers for the Brewers since his mid-May call-up; it’s likely the Orioles will put him to good use.
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd H% S% G/L/F hr/9 hr/f BPV ==== == ==== ==== === ==== === == == ======== ==== ==== === 2009 68 3.71 4.27 5.0 9.7 1.9 27 74 35/19/46 0.9 9% 51 2010 57 2.20 3.19 3.3 10.5 3.2 31 83 42/19/39 0.5 5% 120 2011 72 2.64 3.17 2.2 9.9 3.0 34 81 52/17/31 0.5 6% 120 2012 72 4.38 3.87 3.9 9.0 2.3 30 69 42/26/33 1.0 12% 77 2013 27 1.35 3.85 3.4 9.1 2.7 24 96 29/20/52 1.0 9% 80
Rodriguez has made some adjustments as he ages, but luck has played a factor in his results:
- He no longer has the power stuff of his youth. While he averaged 94.4 mph on his fastball in 2007 he’s down to 91 mph this year.
- Rodriguez has gone pretty much exclusively with his four-seam fastball this year (56%; 39% in 2012) compared to the two-seamer (1%; 23% in 2012).
- The changes have resulted in a stellar ERA, but it’s mostly due to H% and S%. xERA shows he has the same skills as last year, when his ERA was more than three runs higher.
- He’s also given up a lot more fly balls than usual; it’s helped that his hr/f isn’t abnormally high. Camden Yards plays similar to Miller Park in that they’re both hitter’s parks, so the move is unlikely to have much impact.
While closer Jim Johnson (RHP, BAL) has struggled on occasion, there’s no indication that he’s about to lose his job to Rodriguez, despite his career 304 saves. With an upcoming ERA correction as H% and S% normalize, be careful adding Rodriguez to your team down the stretch.
First Impression: Brad Miller (SS, SEA)
CALLED UP: June 29, 2013
CURRENT ROLE: Starting SS
POTENTIAL FUTURE ROLE: Starting SS
Year AB BA xBA h% bb% ct% G/L/F HR PX SB Spd ====== === ==== ==== == === === ======== == === == === 2012 AAA MLE 147 .289 12 79 3 4 2013 AA, AAA 257 .319 36 12 81 12 6 2013 majors 99 .253 .279 29 11 81 52/20/28 2 105 2 127
While Miller isn't yet producing like he did in the minors, there’s a lot to like in this skill set:
- He walks frequently and makes adequate contact; xBA hints at the BA upside.
- While he’s not going to hit a ton of home runs, he’s displaying above-average PX so far. Fewer ground balls would help the HR totals; he hit 12-15 in each of the past two minor league seasons.
- Miller also has above-average speed; he had 23 SBs in the lower minors in 2012.
While Miller gets less press than his middle infield colleague Nick Franklin (2B, SEA), he’s making a good early impression. Since he’s got more offensive upside than Brendan Ryan (SS, SEA), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miller hold onto the regular SS in Seattle.
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