(*) FACTS/FLUKES: S. Marte, Minor, Gattis, Roark, A. Hill
Dec 17 2014
Marte on the verge of another step forward? … Starling Marte (OF, PIT) fell just shy of matching his 2013 fantasy value. He produced so-so overall numbers in the first half before closing the season with an exceptionally strong final two months. Can he carry that into 2015?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% G/L/F PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === === ===== 2012 167 .257 .249 5% 70 94 34 57/18/25 110 83 18% 205 46% 5/12 2013 510 .280 .260 5% 73 100 36 51/22/28 116 98 12% 193 47% 12/41 2014 495 .291 .264 6% 74 105 37 47/23/29 119 114 13% 167 32% 13/30 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14-1H 278 .259 .248 6% 70 100 35 55/22/23 104 83 12% 165 35% 5/18 14-2H 217 .332 .286 6% 78 112 40 38/26/36 148 148 14% 154 28% 8/12
Marte flashed plenty of positive signs:
- He displayed gains in ct%, bb%, xPX and HctX on the season as a whole, but his 2H growth in ct%, xPX and FB% is exciting.
- xBA shows how much a favorable h% inflated his BA. However, this is a player with above average pop and elite wheels, so while his h% may regress, don’t expect it to be a sizeable drop.
- Spd and SBO% dropped from previous years, but remains elite.
At the age of 26, things seem to be coming together for Marte. If he can hold on to those 2H gains, he could post his first 20 HR season. Combine that with 30-40 SB and you've got a truly special player. Pay for something along the lines of the past two seasons, but know that the potential is there for more.
Can Minor bounce back? … Mike Minor (LHP, ATL) had a dreadful 2014 campaign as he posted his worst ERA since his rookie season and highest WHIP (1.44) since 2011. What happened to the pitcher who seemed so full of promise after a strong 2013 showing?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd SwK FpK hr/f G/L/F H%/S% BPV HH% ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ==== ======== ===== === === 2011 83 4.14 3.88 3.3 8.4 2.6 9% 64% 8% 37/27/35 36/73 78 28% 2012 179 4.12 4.18 2.8 7.3 2.6 8% 59% 12% 35/21/44 26/69 68 30% 2013 205 3.21 3.68 2.0 8.0 3.9 10% 64% 9% 35/22/43 28/75 102 29% 2014 145 4.77 4.02 2.7 7.4 2.7 8% 61% 13% 41/23/36 33/70 79 37%
Minor’s skills declined pretty much across the board, but if you look really hard there is some reason for optimism:
- His Dom slid from just above league average in 2013 to slightly below in 2014 as his SwK% dipped 2% to a roughly average 8%.
- He allowed much more hard contact as evidenced by a whopping 37% HH%.
- After benefitting from a somewhat fortunate H% and S% the previous two seasons, his H% and S% were slightly unlucky in 2014. xERA shows things weren’t quite as bad as they seemed.
- A 6% uptick in GB% was a positive development.
It seems likely that at least a portion of the blame for his issues in 2014 could be attributed to health. A urinary tract procedure done in December 2013 kept him from his normal offseason workout routine and as a result he was forced to play catch up. That led to shoulder inflammation in spring training and reportedly discomfort and fatigue at times during the season, though he wasn’t forced to the disabled list after making his 2014 regular season debut in early May. (Incidentally, an MRI performed in late September showed no structural damage.) While it wouldn’t be wise to expect a full 2013 repeat, Minor is a good rebound candidate.
Another up and down season for Gattis … For the second consecutive year, Evan Gattis (C/OF, ATL) saw his season interrupted by injuries. After getting off to a rip-roaring start in the first half (.900 OPS, 16 HR, 39 RBI in 224 AB), a variety of injuries including a bulging disc, strep throat and kidney stones hampered him in the second half. What can we take away from his injury plagued season?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% G/L/F PX xPX HR hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === == ==== === 2013 354 .243 .263 6% 77 115 26 41/14/45 160 136 21 17% 68 2014 369 .263 .258 6% 74 124 30 39/17/45 156 165 22 18% 54
Gattis again showed great power:
- He continues to make plenty of hard contact (165 xPX, 124 HctX, 39% HH%) while hitting lots of fly balls (45% FB%).
- Below average Eye and xBA suggest his BA isn’t likely to get better, but a .250-.260 BA is nothing to sneeze at when it comes with this type of HR potential.
- Subpar bb% hurts OBA, but that's not why you own him.
One has to wonder what Gattis could do with more AB. That’s one reason the Braves have given serious consideration to moving the jumbo sized player from behind the dish to left field. Such a move would likely mean more playing time and it may help him hold up better health-wise over the long haul. There is no denying the power and with more playing time, a 30+ HR season could be well within reach.
Was Roark’s breakout legit? … Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) surprised many by posting a dazzling sub-3.00 ERA in his first full season as a major league starter. Those who were able to add him in fantasy leagues saw quite a return on their investment, but will Roark be able to sustain that level of production in 2015?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd SwK FpK hr/f G/L/F H%/S% BPV HH% ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ==== ======== ===== === === 2013 54 1.51 3.17 1.8 6.7 3.6 7% 71% 3% 50/24/26 25/83 99 25% 2014 199 2.85 3.79 1.8 6.3 3.5 9% 65% 7% 41/21/38 28/77 84 23%
Luck certainly played a role, but some solid skills are present:
- Favorable H% and S% assisted in posting an ERA nearly a full run below his xERA.
- Superb Ctl helps him limit baserunners and SwK% suggests his below-average Dom could creep slightly closer to league average.
- Doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but has done a good job thus far of restricting hard contact.
- Dwindling GB% is something to keep an eye on going forward. After posting a strong 50% GB% in 2013, it plummeted to 41% in 2014 (36% in 2H 2014).
As evidenced by his 2014 xERA, Roark wasn’t truly a sub-3.00 pitcher. However, that doesn’t mean he should be completely ignored. Roark will most likely be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but he can still be useful, particularly if the downward trend in GB% can be reversed and growing SwK% can translate into a few more strikeouts.
Can Hill rebound from a disappointing 2014? … Aaron Hill (2B, ARI) entered 2014 seemingly primed to provide solid value after an injury plagued but productive 2013. Instead, he posted his lowest OPS since 2011 along with the worst ct% and bb% of his career. Does the 33-year-old have anything left in the tank?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% G/L/F PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== === ======== === === ==== === === ===== 2010 528 .205 .245 7% 84 106 20 35/11/54 115 132 11% 80 4% 26/2 2011 520 .246 .250 6% 86 104 27 37/21/42 75 85 4% 95 22% 8/21 2012 609 .302 .286 8% 86 129 32 34/21/45 132 145 11% 113 12% 26/14 2013 327 .291 .278 8% 85 109 31 39/22/40 112 120 10% 87 5% 11/1 2014 501 .244 .253 5% 82 114 28 34/25/41 85 116 6% 85 6% 10/4
Upon closer inspection, there were some positive signs:
- Above average HctX, xPX and FB% suggest the power is there and that he deserved better than a paltry 6% hr/f.
- It seems unlikely that the .290 BA from 2013 will return, but minimal h% regression from a somewhat unlucky 28% could push him closer to .260-.270 range.
- Though Hill did post his worst ct% and bb%, he showed some improvement in both areas during the second half (1H: 81% ct% and 5% bb% in 302 AB; 2H: 83% ct% and 6% bb% in 199 AB).
A quick glance at his year-to-year statistics shows how maddeningly inconsistent he has been. Since Hill figures to be rather inexpensive, he could be a sneaky value pick on draft day as a second baseman with the upside to slug 20+ HR. However, it's more likely to be accompanied by a batting average much closer to .260 than the .290 mark he posted in 2013.
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