(*) FACTS/FLUKES: McCutchen, J. Garcia, Duda, Hammel, Duffy
Feb 9 2016
Is McCutchen still elite? ... Andrew McCutchen's (OF, PIT) impressive run of first round production from 2012-14 made him a top-five staple entering 2015 drafts. While his performance was strong (.292 BA, 23 HR, 11 SB), it failed to return $30 for the first time since 2011. McCutchen's stock has dipped somewhat entering 2016—does this unveil a buying opportunity?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === === ===== 2011 572 .259 .266 13 78 135 30 38/20/42 135 142 12% 113 19% 23/23 2012 593 .327 .280 11 78 126 38 44/22/34 140 147 19% 139 16% 31/20 2013 583 .317 .289 12 83 136 36 41/24/35 125 123 12% 129 19% 21/27 2014 548 .314 .284 13 79 139 36 40/19/41 159 155 14% 127 11% 25/18 2015 566 .292 .269 15 76 132 35 38/24/38 132 159 14% 105 8% 23/11
McCutchen's elite track record and stability make for a fine building block:
- McCutchen's relatively "low" BA was the result of a few more Ks. His ct% trend is worth monitoring, though a healthy LD% and h% baseline suggest he'll flirt with .300 again—bb% makes him an elite OBP play, as well.
- McCutchen posted a career-high xPX in 2015, so the power is alive and well. He wasn't able to hold 2014's FB% gains, but it's fair to expect another 25-HR campaign in 2016.
- One potential red flag from 2015 is the depressed SB total—Spd is in a three-year decline as McCutchen approaches 30, and he was much less aggressive on the basepaths (SBO).
McCutchen's "down" year can mostly be attributed to a lack of SB, which was likely related to a nagging knee injury throughout the season. McCutchen is one of just three players with three or more $30 seasons since 2012 (Trout, Cabrera), he's still under 30 years old, and his reliability and skill foundation provide one of the higher floors in the game. If an offseason of rest helps the knee and unlocks more SB, McCutchen has a great shot at another $30+ campaign.
Garcia posts career year... While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Jaime García (LHP, STL), he was able to throw 130 IP in 2015—his highest since 2011—while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. If Garcia can stay healthy, do the skills support a repeat?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f Ball% FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== ===== === === === 2012 121 3.92 3.61 2.2 7.2 3.3 54/20/26 34/71 7% 33.6% 63% 12% 103 2013 55 3.58 3.35 2.4 7.0 2.9 63/14/23 31/76 15% 33.4% 68% 12% 101 2014 43 4.12 2.89 1.4 8.0 5.6 55/20/25 28/65 19% 34.5% 60% 13% 139 2015 129 2.43 3.25 2.1 6.7 3.2 61/16/22 27/78 7% 34.4% 59% 9% 104
Not quite. Another sub-3.00 ERA is pretty unlikely:
- Garcia benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (H%, S%, hr/f) in 2015. His xERA, while still in decent shape, suggests a sharp ERA correction is looming.
- His Dom fell to career-low levels, and a similar dip in swinging-strike rate (SwK) suggests this might be the new norm. Garcia was able to maintain excellent Ctl, however, which kept his Cmd strong.
- Garcia's strength is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, and that remained the case in 2015. His elite GB% will keep ERA in favorable territory.
Though he stayed relatively healthy in 2015—a groin injury did force him to the DL in July—Garcia's "F" health grade still looms large over his profile. His FpK/SwK combo, along with some luck factor correction, suggest 2015 was likely Garcia's career year. An elite GB% and strong Ctl still make Garcia a decent mid-rotation option when healthy, but paying for 2015's production on draft day would be a big mistake.
Can Duda push the envelope? ... With another strong power performance in 2015, Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) has cemented himself as a legit HR source in the National League—his 57 HR since 2014 are tied for 5th-most among NL hitters. The power has come at a cost, however, as Duda hit just .244 in 2015. Now 30, should we expect more of the same from Duda moving forward?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f OPSvL HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== ===== == === 2012 401 .239 .224 11 70 117 30 35/23/42 106 134 13% .662 15 5 2013 318 .223 .232 15 68 117 28 32/20/48 148 181 14% .610 15 42 2014 514 .253 .263 12 74 132 29 31/20/49 165 181 16% .516 30 66 2015 471 .244 .263 12 71 121 29 27/22/51 174 167 16% .878 27 66 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15-2H 181 .238 .280 14 70 123 24 27/14/59 231 182 22% -- 17 114
While a major breakout is unlikely, there are plenty of things to like:
- The power skills are very real and Duda's excellent FB% allows them to flourish. His elite PX/xPX combo and 2H hr/f suggest that 40-HR upside could be lurking.
- Duda's swing-and-miss game (and all those fly balls) cap any hopes for major BA growth, though xBA hints that we could see it jump above league average in 2016.
- Duda made some significant gains vs. LHP. The 38% h% he posted off southpaws in 2015 won't hold, but Duda's PX against them jumped from 66 in 2014 (111 AB) to 207 in 2015 (123 AB).
Duda's immense power and ability to get plenty of loft suggest he'll be a perennial 30-HR candidate, though his subpar ct% puts a lid on any significant BA upside. Duda hit for power vs. LHP in 2015, his FB% inched above 50%, and his 2H skill surge—in a limited sample—all provide room for further growth. Duda is an excellent choice to fill your 1B slot after the top tiers are off the board.
Hammel stumbles in 2H, again ... Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC) looked to be on his way to a career year in 2015, as he owned a 2.89 ERA and 137 BPV on July 1. He stumbled to the finish line—for the second year in a row—with a 5.03 ERA in the second half (and a 6.46 ERA in September). Does the 2H swoon sour Hammel's outlook?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f Ball% FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== ===== === === === 2012 11 3.43 3.48 3.2 8.6 2.7 53/19/28 30/74 10% 37.7% 57% 11% 100 2013 139 4.97 4.52 3.1 6.2 2.0 40/22/38 31/70 13% 37.4% 56% 8% 46 2014 176 3.47 3.52 2.2 8.1 3.6 40/22/38 28/74 12% 36.2% 57% 10% 103 2015 171 3.74 3.57 2.1 9.1 4.3 38/25/37 30/73 13% 34.5% 61% 11% 122 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15-2H 68 5.03 3.99 2.9 9.0 3.1 39/26/35 35/70 17% --- 60% 11% 101
Despite another second half slide, Hammel's skills continue to improve:
- Hammel's Dom jumped to a career-high level, and it was supported by SwK. Hammel continued to lean more on his excellent slider in 2015 (36% of pitches), which generated a filthy 18% SwK.
- In addition to the K gains, Hammel was able to maintain his Ctl improvement from 2014, and it came with strong FpK and ball% support.
- A brutal h% and hr/f combined to wreck Hammel's 2H ERA. His triple-digit BPV over that time, while not quite in line with his first half, suggests he deserved a better fate.
Though Hammel's 2H woes put a damper on his overall numbers, there are still reasons for optimism—most notably in his career-high BPV and Dom. With a nasty slider that he's using more often, a growing Cmd, and xERA/BPV stability, Hammel presents a solid option when filling out the back end of your rotation.
Gauging Duffy's strong debut ... Matt Duffy (3B, SF) did more than just tread water in his first full season, he tore through MLB pitching with a .295 BA and double-digit HR and SB—he was the only 3B to post those numbers in 2015. At just 25 years old, can we expect even more from Duffy in his sophomore campaign?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ===== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === === ===== 2014* 427 .291 .267 8 79 -- 36 41/33/26 72 56 0% 123 17% 2/16 2015 573 .295 .276 5 83 104 34 53/21/27 83 91 9% 136 8% 12/12 *Includes MLEs
Duffy has a high floor, but don't expect a repeat:
- While Duffy's plate approach and GB/LD profile provide a decent BA cushion, we don't yet know if 2015's inflated h% will be his baseline. It's fair to expect a bit of pullback towards xBA.
- His PX/xPX combo was underwhelming, particularly in the second half (65/85). Couple that with a paltry FB%, and it's tough to see much more than 10 HR from Duffy's bat in 2016.
- Duffy's wheels look like a potential avenue towards more value. He possesses excellent Spd, but just needs to run more to unlock 20-SB potential.
Duffy's debut was impressive, and his ability to hit for a plus BA offers plenty of staying power. But feeble hard-hit metrics and a checkered minor league power history (13 HR in 942 career AB) say he'll be hard-pressed to repeat 2015's HR total. Duffy has a high floor, but unless he gets a green light on the basepaths, it'll be tough for him to post another $20 season.
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