(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Machado, Verlander, Forsythe, Osuna, S. Castro
Aug 15 2016
Checking on Machado's encore ... After a massive 2015 breakout, Manny Machado (3B, BAL) was the center of first-round debates entering 2016. His $30+ season at age 22 made the case for a top-10 pick; yet an incomplete MLB track record and a pair of previous knee surgeries introduced some risk. Machado has thrived this year with a career-high BA and 30+ HR pace, though he's yet to steal a base. Do the skills place him as a first-round fixture?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA h% HctX bb% ct% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO% ==== === ===== ==== ==== == ==== === === ======== === === ==== === ==== 2012 191 7/ 2 .262 .252 29 113 5 80 46/14/40 110 100 12% 147 5% 2013 667 14/ 6 .283 .277 32 101 4 83 47/21/32 107 73 8% 122 9% 2014 327 12/ 2 .278 .262 32 100 6 79 49/20/31 106 101 15% 112 2% 2015 633 35/20 .286 .279 30 120 10 82 44/18/38 127 122 18% 113 15% 2016 441 26/ 0 .306 .293 33 123 9 82 37/20/43 147 123 17% 103 3%
Despite a lack of SB, Machado's an anchor:
- Machado makes plenty of hard contact, as his contact rate (ct%) and hard-contact index (HctX) are both well above average. Expected batting average (xBA) suggests he'll continue to flirt with .300.
- He's getting more loft on the ball, as his FB% continues to head upwards. With excellent raw power in place (PX, xPX, hr/f), Machado's a legit 30-HR source.
- The speed game has vanished, however, due to lack of aggressiveness on the basepaths. Spd and age hint at SB upside, but he hasn't attempted a steal since May 10.
Machado's encore to 2015's breakout season has been impressive. His excellent plate skills and plus raw power at such a young age make him keeper league gold, though a lack of steals will likely prevent another $30 season. But with SS/3B eligibility and two years of top-notch production and skills, Machado looks like a first-round cog entering 2017.
There’s more where this came from to help you win your fantasy league this season. Take the title home with a subscription to BaseballHQ.com.
Verlander inching back? ... After looking like a shell of his former self in recent seasons, Justin Verlander (RHP, DET) showed flashes of his Cy Young days with a 2.68 ERA in the second half of 2015. His 3.42 ERA this year has been better than average, but should fantasy owners give up on chasing the vintage Verlander?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === ==== === 2012 238 2.64 3.35 2.3 9.0 4.0 42/22/36 29/78 8% 61% 12% 94.3 121 2013 218 3.46 3.75 3.1 8.9 2.9 38/23/39 33/76 7% 65% 11% 93.3 94 2014 206 4.54 4.27 2.8 6.9 2.4 40/20/41 33/68 7% 64% 9% 92.3 66 2015 133 3.38 4.04 2.2 7.6 3.5 35/20/46 28/72 7% 63% 10% 92.8 92 2016 160 3.42 3.71 2.4 9.5 4.0 36/19/45 28/72 10% 63% 12% 93.2 121
While not quite vintage, Verlander's been impressive:
- Verlander's recovered some fastball velocity, and his 11.0% swinging-strike rate (SwK) on this pitch is a career high. He's also generating more whiffs on the changeup (14.4% SwK in 2016; 7.6% in 2015), which makes the Dom spike well deserved.
- First-pitch strike rate (FpK) says he's able to consistently get ahead in the count, which should keep Ctl in favorable territory.
- His luck factors have been fairly neutral, as a career-high hr/f has been washed out by another sub-30% h%.
From a pure skills perspective, Verlander's 2016 campaign hasn't been far off from his 2011-12 peak. His strikeouts have surged thanks to renewed velocity and an ability to miss bats, and it hasn't come at the expense of his control. At 33, we can't expect peak Verlander again, but with BPV comfortably above the triple-digit plateau, this version isn't too shabby.
Forsythe keeps pace ... Logan Forsythe (2B, TAM) exploded with a near-$20 season in 2015 after numerous seasons of mediocrity in part-time duty. The magnitude of a breakout like Forsythe's usually screams regression the following year, but the 2016 Baseball Forecaster said that it "should be gentle." Were we right?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd OPSvR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === ===== === 2012 315 .273 .258 8 82 116 32 36/29/35 74 107 7% 145 .603 49 2013 220 .214 .250 8 75 100 26 42/28/29 80 105 13% 94 .593 12 2014 301 .223 .224 8 76 83 27 41/19/40 80 100 6% 107 .596 19 2015 540 .281 .255 9 79 108 33 40/20/41 109 106 10% 112 .728 59 2016 345 .281 .272 8 77 120 33 42/25/33 114 119 15% 111 .787 49
Forsythe has kept rolling:
- Forsythe continues to show decent plate skills, while career-highs in HctX and xBA suggest his BA is legit.
- While Forsythe may not be able to hold this season's hr/f spike, underlying PX/xPX suggests he can make a push for 20 HR—particularly if FB% recovers to 2014-15 levels.
- Once a major liability vs. RHP, Forsythe's skills have become passable against them this season (77% ct%, 106 PX), which has led to everyday playing time.
Now with two years of solid production—and the underlying skills to back it up—Forsythe deserves to be mentioned among mid-tier second basemen going forward. His plate skills are in great shape, he has above-average power, and his ability to hit RHBs has elevated him from a platoon role. The 29-year-old Forsythe lacks that sexy upside, but there's nothing wrong with rostering these skills up the middle.
Osuna's early dominance ... Though his 2016 role was unknown until late March, Roberto Osuna (RHP, TOR) was a highly coveted target thanks to a 2.58 ERA in his rookie season as TOR's closer. Osuna's stayed in that role this year with even better numbers (1.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP). Still just 21, how bright is Osuna's future?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Vel BPV ==== == ==== ==== === ==== === ======== ===== ==== === === ==== === 2015 70 2.58 3.41 2.1 9.7 4.7 34/20/46 25/77 9% 63% 15% 95.6 131 2016 52 1.89 3.26 1.9 11.0 5.8 32/17/51 26/83 6% 69% 17% 95.7 157
Extremely bright—there's a lot to like here:
- His Dom and Ctl are both in elite territory, and they get plenty of support from underlying SwK and FpK, respectively.
- Not surprisingly, Osuna's BPV is firmly among the best you'll see over a full season.
- Osuna's extreme fly ball rate is somewhat of a double-edged sword—it's likely kept h% in favorable territory, but there's considerable HR risk if his hr/f ever spikes.
Osuna's slider is a nasty pitch (29% SwK), and he pairs that with upper-90s heat to form a rare combination of missed bats and first-pitch strikes. In fact, he's one of just three pitchers with a 17% SwK and 69% FpK this season (Kershaw, Doolittle; min. 30 IP). It remains to be seen what Osuna's long-term role may be, but these BPIs lay the foundation for an exciting career ahead.
Castro unable to breakout ... It's been an odd career path for Starlin Castro (2B, NYY), who put up a career-high $28 in 5x5 value as a 21-year-old in 2011, but has since eclipsed the $20 mark just once. 2016's been another ho-hum year, as Castro's flirting with a .260-ish BA with mediocre counting stats. Is this what he is?
Year AB BA xBA ct% h% HctX GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === == ==== ======== === === ==== === === ===== 2012 646 .283 .271 85 32 99 47/21/32 87 100 8% 158 23% 14/25 2013 666 .245 .249 81 29 105 51/20/29 75 99 6% 116 10% 10/ 9 2014 528 .292 .271 81 34 102 45/22/32 107 105 10% 94 6% 14/ 4 2015 547 .265 .251 83 30 87 54/17/29 70 75 8% 110 8% 11/ 5 2016 431 .260 .265 79 30 94 50/21/29 92 86 14% 102 3% 14/ 3
Castro's skills continue to flounder:
- Castro's striking out a bit more this season—BA is right in line with xBA, as his h% has settled near league average.
- We're skeptical that Castro's power spike can last. He rarely hits fly balls, his hr/f is easily a career-high, and his PX/xPX combo remains below league average.
- The elite speed from early in his career has vanished, as Castro rarely runs with NYY. Tough to expect much more than a handful of SBs going forward.
Though we can't forget about Castro's early-career success, he simply hasn't shown the skills needed to sniff another $25-$30 season. 2016's power spike looks fluky, he's been shy on the basepaths, and his plate skills (bb%, ct%, HctX) are mediocre at best. Without a green light on base, Castro's YTD numbers seem like the right baseline.
More From Facts & Flukes
Is Cole Ragans a legitimate ace? We'll examine the skills and luck factors for Ragans, Josh Lowe, Gavin Williams, Matt Wallner, and Seranthony Domínguez.
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing 2024 season, but at least his power has returned in the second half. How are things under the hood? Plus, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ezequiel Tovar, and Carlos Estévez.
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill runs hot, David Bednar looks for better results, Spencer Steer cools off lately, Paul Sewald loses some skills, and Luis García increases his R$.
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
If Royce Lewis stayed healthy, he could put up massive numbers. We'll look at the skills and luck factors for Lewis, Bryan Woo, Jose Siri, Osvaldo Bido, and Dylan Carlson.
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
After belting 40 HR in 2022 and 46 HR in 2023, Pete Alonso has 27 HR through 556 PA. How are things under the hood? Plus, Zac Gallen, J.D. Martinez, Michael Kopech, and Joey Bart.
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
