(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Lucroy, Kemp, Russell, Wisler, Straily
May 19 2016
Lucroy returns to form ... Jonathan Lucroy (C, MIL) had a rough April in 2015, when he went 6 for 45 and suffered a broken toe which knocked him out for six weeks. He was back to his usual self upon his return, though, as he put up a .282/.342/.420 line in 364 plate appearances the rest of the way. He's got the average back above .300 again this year, and after a homerless April, has already gone deep six times in May.
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2012 316 12/4 .320 .284 7 86 41/21/37 34 131 112 129 12% 122 6% 2013 521 18/9 .280 .281 8 87 39/23/38 29 133 104 135 10% 109 7% 2014 585 13/4 .301 .298 10 88 42/22/36 33 132 119 128 7% 97 5% 2015 371 7/1 .264 .274 9 83 45/26/29 30 128 83 104 8% 98 1% 2016 132 6/0 .311 .279 9 80 35/25/41 35 112 121 146 14% 119 0%
Lucroy's BPIs say he's back:
- After a down year in the power department in 2015, he's rebounded in a big way this season. If he stays healthy, it wouldn't be surprising if he reached 20 homers for the first time in his career.
- He's striking out more than usual, but a high percentage of his balls in play have been line drives, which has helped lead to an elevated hit rate. He isn't likely to keep his batting average at its current level, but should remain one of the best at his position in the category.
- He still has some speed, but can't be counted on for stolen base contributions anymore, having attempted only one steal since the beginning of last year.
Lucroy's cost was down entering 2016 following a disappointing 2015 season in which his numbers were down across the board, and he was hampered by injuries, including a concussion in September. It took his power a little time to come around this year, but after his recent surge, his power metrics are as high as ever. Lucroy may not quite be able to maintain his current pace, and odds are high that he will be traded, which is cause for concern in many NL-only leagues. His skills through the first quarter of the season, though, indicate he's still one of the top catcher options in the game.
Take charge of your league in 2016 with a BaseballHQ.com subscription that unlocks articles like these all season long. Winning. Fantasy baseball. Insight.
Kemp off to strong start ... In 2015, for the second consecutive year, Matt Kemp (OF, SD) started slow, but went on a tear throughout the second half of the season. He didn't waste any time this year, with seven April home runs, but he's taken a step back in May. What should owners expect the rest of the way?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2012 403 23/ 9 .303 .277 9 74 43/22/35 36 122 155 158 22% 103 11% 2013 263 6/ 9 .270 .237 8 71 40/25/35 36 105 103 142 9% 79 13% 2014 541 25/ 8 .287 .287 9 73 43/26/31 35 128 168 140 20% 89 9% 2015 596 23/12 .265 .258 6 75 43/21/35 32 137 119 150 14% 91 10% 2016 156 10/ 0 .250 .282 3 80 35/20/45 25 117 147 151 17% 70 0%
Kemp appears to be locked in at the plate:
- Kemp's power metrics are in line with recent years, but he's hitting the ball in the air far more than usual. If he continues to do so, he could very well top 30 home runs for the first time since 2011.
- His batting average is low, but he's actually striking out less than ever before. With a career hit rate of 35 percent, more balls should fall in for hits going forward.
- He's drawn only four walks, two of which have been intentional, and he's seeing the third fewest pitches per plate appearance in the National League. The result has been an awful .264 on-base-percentage.
- Since swiping 40 bases back in 2011, Kemp's totals have dwindled, though he's still contributed with his speed, averaging 9.5 steals per season. He's yet to attempt a steal this season, though, and his Spd score has fallen further, so he shouldn't be counted on for more than a handful of stolen bases.
Kemp has reversed the trend of starting slow, as he's already reached double digits in home runs. While still a small sample, his approach at the plate has changed quite a bit, as he's striking out and walking less, and hitting a lot more fly balls. His batting average should soon be on the rise as his hit rate corrects, but if he continues to be impatient, his value takes a huge hit in OBP leagues. Kemp's early season BPIs are stellar, and even without a monster second half, he looks poised to make a run at 30 homers.
Russell on the rise ... Addison Russell (SS, CHC) entered last year ranked as the number four prospect in all of baseball, according to the 2015 Minor League Baseball Analyst. He held his own as a 21-year-old rookie, and showed some growth during the second half of the season. He's off to a solid start in 2016, but is he on the verge of breaking out yet?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2014* 241 10/4 .277 N/A 5 80 N/A 31 N/A 130 N/A N/A 88 15% 2015# 519 14/5 .246 .226 8 70 41/18/41 33 83 115 105 10% 97 6% 2016 120 4/1 .258 .251 14 75 41/21/38 31 90 108 116 12% 131 3% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Russell may not be breaking out, but is showing some encouraging signs:
- Strikeouts were an issue for him last year, especially early on. So far in 2016, he's striking out in just a quarter of his at-bats, and his MLEs from 2014 hint at further improvement.
- He's been extremely patient at the plate, which has led to an outstanding .366 on-base percentage so far.
- According to both PX and xPX, he offers above average power already, and at age 22, there's a good chance he will show even more power in the near future.
- He has decent speed, but it hasn't translated to much in the way of stolen bases. He stole 21 in the minors in 2013, so there's hope for more, but as it currently stands, he'll probably fall short of double digits in the category.
Russell's career is off to a fine start, and he's already doing a nice job of making adjustments. So far this season, he has cut down on his strikeouts, which were a problem for him as a rookie, while significantly boosting his walk rate. Russell's long-term potential is obviously exciting, but even in the short-term, his improving plate skills and plus power could yield substantial value.
Wisler a work in progress ... Matt Wisler (RHP, ATL) has a strong pedigree, ranking among the top 100 prospects in the Minor League Baseball Analyst in both 2014 (#77) and 2015 (#54). His transition to the majors was a tough one, though, as he posted a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in 2015. He's lowered his ERA by more than a run and a half thus far in 2016. Is the success sustainable?
Year IP ERA xERA OPSvL Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== ===== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2013* 105 3.31 2.87 N/A 2.2 8.1 3.7 N/A N/A N/A 30 72 N/A 115 2014* 147 4.06 4.32 N/A 2.3 7.4 3.2 N/A N/A N/A 32 72 N/A 82 2015# 174 5.04 4.99 .986 2.8 6.0 2.2 59% 8% 34/23/43 32 67 10% 44 2016 49 3.14 4.30 .607 2.0 5.9 2.9 61% 8% 36/17/47 23 72 7% 66 *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Wisler is making strides, but still has work to do:
- He's not generating many swings and misses, so he hasn't been able to get as many strikeouts as he did in the minors.
- He's thrown more first pitch strikes in 2015, which has allowed him to cut down on the walks. He may issue a few more free passes going forward, given that his career minor league Ctl is 2.5 and his FpK is right at league average.
- Home runs were a major issue for him in 2015, and while he's allowing more fly balls this season, he's been aided by a low home run per fly ball rate. He plays half his games in a park that reduces home runs from both sides of the plate, but not enough to prevent him from having some trouble with the long ball.
- Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season, but they have had much less success against them so far in 2016. His Cmd against them has gone from 0.7 to 2.7, an encouraging sign, but he's also been helped by an unsustainable 21 percent hit rate.
Wisler recorded a high number of strikeouts through much of his minor league career, but his Dom dropped to 7.4 in Triple-A, and sits at 5.9 through 157 2/3 big league innings. There's still plenty of time for the 23-year-old to add more whiffs, and his low Ctl and improvement against left-handed bats are encouraging. For now, though, the lack of swing and miss stuff, along with all the fly balls, make him a gamble.
Fly ball rate, home park make Straily a risky play ... Dan Straily (RHP, CIN) put up a 3.94 ERA in 34 starts with Oakland between 2012-13, but has been in the minors most of the past two seasons, with very little success in the majors (6.42 ERA in 11 starts, seven relief appearances). The battered Cincinnati rotation was in need of an arm early this season, and he's helped fill the void with a 3.05 ERA in nine appearances (six starts). Is Straily worth investing in now?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2012* 191 3.15 2.94 2.7 8.9 3.3 51% 10% 30/15/55 28 75 17% 107 2013* 184 3.48 3.26 3.2 7.4 2.3 60% 12% 36/20/44 28 74 8% 76 2014* 170 5.86 5.46 3.9 7.7 2.0 47% 12% 35/16/49 32 65 13% 41 2015# 123 5.35 N/A 1.9 7.3 3.9 N/A N/A N/A 39 68 N/A 83 2016 41 3.05 4.36 4.4 7.8 1.8 63% 12% 38/20/42 24 80 11% 40 *Includes MLEs #MLEs
Straily's skills don't support the early season success:
- He's had some issues with walks, but with an average FpK so far, and a history of better Ctl, it's not likely to be as much of a problem going forward.
- Straily's Dom has been pretty consistent over the years, and he's generating a lot of swings and misses. Even with a fastball that averages a little under 90 mph, he should be expected to continue at a similar level in terms of strikeouts.
- He's always allowed a high number of fly balls, and though he's throwing more sinkers than he did in Oakland, he's still a fly ball pitcher in a bad park.
- He's benefited from both a low hit rate and high strand rate, with a correction probably coming soon.
Straily has been a bright spot for the Reds' pitching staff so far, but the gap between his ERA and xERA makes it pretty clear that he is pitching over his head. He should be able to reduce the walks, and his strikeout potential makes him worth considering as a streaming option on the road. However, it's probably only a matter of time before his fly ball tendencies lead to some problems at home.
More From Facts & Flukes
Is Cole Ragans a legitimate ace? We'll examine the skills and luck factors for Ragans, Josh Lowe, Gavin Williams, Matt Wallner, and Seranthony Domínguez.
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing 2024 season, but at least his power has returned in the second half. How are things under the hood? Plus, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ezequiel Tovar, and Carlos Estévez.
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill runs hot, David Bednar looks for better results, Spencer Steer cools off lately, Paul Sewald loses some skills, and Luis García increases his R$.
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
If Royce Lewis stayed healthy, he could put up massive numbers. We'll look at the skills and luck factors for Lewis, Bryan Woo, Jose Siri, Osvaldo Bido, and Dylan Carlson.
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
After belting 40 HR in 2022 and 46 HR in 2023, Pete Alonso has 27 HR through 556 PA. How are things under the hood? Plus, Zac Gallen, J.D. Martinez, Michael Kopech, and Joey Bart.
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
