(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Lindor, Stroman, Calhoun, Storen, Forsythe
Mar 28 2016
Lindor already a top SS? ... While Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) came with plenty of hype when he received The Call in June 2015, few expected the upcoming explosion with the bat. Lindor hit .313 with 12 HR and 12 SB in just 390 AB, which has earned him a top-75 Average Draft Position (ADP) entering 2016. Is he worth it?
Year AB BA xBA ct% h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB BPV ======== === ==== ==== === == ======== === === ==== === === ===== === 2014* 507 .247 -- 79 30 ---- 66 - -- 105 29% 9/23 16 2015-aaa 228 .281 -- 83 33 ---- -- - -- - - 2/ 9 - 2015-mlb 390 .313 .283 82 36 51/21/29 105 75 13% 134 13% 12/12 68 *Includes MLE
Lindor has plenty of long-term promise, but don't draft him based off 2015's numbers:
- We don't yet know where Lindor's personal h% baseline will settle, so while his solid ct% and xBA suggest he'll hit for a plus BA, odds are against a full BA repeat.
- Lindor's HR outburst was uncharacteristic given his minor league past. A shaky xPX and FB% combination caps his power upside for now.
- His excellent speed points to 25+ SB upside for the foreseeable future.
Lindor's rookie season was a wild success, but a short track record and underwhelming power skills should give pause when considering him with an early draft pick. He's due for a bit of BA fallback, and Lindor's raw power and GB% tilt doubt he'll push past the 10-15 HR plateau. Lindor's ability to hit for a decent BA and run provides plenty of value at a thin position, but if you extrapolate 2015's output to 2016, you're probably overpaying.
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Can Stroman go a full season? ... After a spectacular rookie season in 2014, Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) went down with a fluke knee injury in spring training and missed most of the 2015 season. Stroman returned in September and teased us with just five ER and an 18/6 K/BB over 27 innings—can he put together a full season of production?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === === 2014 130 3.65 3.20 1.9 7.6 4.0 54/18/28 31/68 6% 58% 9% 118 2015 27 1.67 3.13 2.0 6.0 3.0 64/18/18 24/88 14% 66% 8% 96
There's some risk involved, but things are looking good:
- Stroman's ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit the free pass give him an extremely high floor.
- He hasn't yet proven he can strike out hitters at a plus rate, and a career 9% SwK shows us there's some work to be done here.
- Stroman's biggest risk is putting together a full season of IP—he's yet to eclipse 170 IP in a season and threw just 35 innings in 2015.
At just 25, Stroman's pinpoint Ctl and elite GB% provide an excellent foundation for continued growth. That growth will hinge on his ability to generate more Ks and handle a 200-IP workload. While it may not all come together in 2016, Stroman is a fine mid-rotation option who will help your ratios immensely.
Calhoun powers up ... Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA) had a power breakout of 26 HR in 2015, and while it came at the expense of a career-low .256 BA, he's now posted $15+ in 5x5 production each of the last two seasons. Is Calhoun ready to take the next step?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== == === 2013 195 .282 .265 10 79 127 32 41/23/36 113 131 14% 8 57 2014 493 .272 .281 7 79 99 31 44/24/32 129 94 13% 17 64 2015 630 .256 .248 7 74 91 31 42/23/35 109 117 16% 26 23
Calhoun may have a tough time repeating 2015's power output:
- Calhoun's hr/f spiked to a career-high level, and while PX and xPX are above average, they don't quite support a full power repeat.
- xBA and a noticeable increase in Ks suggest Calhoun deserved the BA drop—his h% stayed in line with his career baseline.
- BPV shows that Calhoun's skills dipped considerably compared to 2013 and 2014—an enormous AB spike drove much of 2015's production.
Calhoun's "ABA" reliability and solid track record give him a relatively high floor. Don't count on a HR repeat, however, as Calhoun's raw power doesn't support an inflated hr/f and he's unlikely to surpass 2015's AB total—particularly if his struggles vs. LHP continue (71% ct%, .293 OBP in 200 AB). Calhoun's a solid mid-tier OF option, but he offers little upside at this point.
Can Storen rebound? ... After a nasty second half (5.48 ERA) that ended with a broken thumb from slamming a locker, Drew Storen (RHP, TOR) hopes for better fortune with a new club in 2016. Despite the 2H struggles, Storen is in the mix for TOR's closer gig—does he have the skills to thrive?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === === 2012 30 2.37 3.31 2.4 7.1 3.0 54/18/28 26/73 0% 59% 14% 96 2013 61 4.52 3.85 2.8 8.5 3.1 41/20/39 33/69 10% 59% 10% 96 2014 56 1.12 3.22 1.8 7.3 4.2 53/15/33 27/91 4% 63% 11% 116 2015 55 3.44 3.17 2.6 11.0 4.2 38/24/38 32/70 8% 62% 13% 143
The skills suggest Storen deserved a much better fate:
- A major Dom spike was the highlight of Storen's underlying skill growth in 2015. He hasn't shown this ability in the past, but a nice SwK boost suggests the K gains have staying power.
- He gave up 2014's pinpoint control, but Cmd is still in great shape.
- Storen's BPV was the highest of his career in 2015, and xERA confirms he owns a closer-worthy skill set.
A brutal 59% S% and 13% hr/f torpedoed Storen's 2H ERA in 2015, but a scan under the hood shows all is well. In fact, a significant Dom boost helped Storen put up the best skills of his career. If Storen's rough 2015 finish suppresses his price, don't be afraid to bid—the skills suggest profit is looming.
Forsythe breaks out ... After years of mediocre production and spotty playing time, Logan Forsythe (2B, TAM) got a full-time role and took advantage in 2016. Forsythe set career highs in HR, SB, BA, and (not surprisingly) 5x5 production. At 29, can Forsythe repeat?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd HR/SB BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === ===== === 2012 315 .273 .258 8 82 116 32 36/29/35 74 107 7% 145 6/ 8 49 2013 220 .214 .250 8 75 100 26 42/28/29 80 105 13% 94 6/ 6 12 2014 301 .223 .224 8 76 83 27 41/19/40 80 100 6% 107 6/ 2 19 2015 540 .281 .255 9 79 108 33 40/20/41 109 106 10% 112 17/ 9 59
Forsythe's skills took a leap forward as well:
- Forstyhe's HR spike played a major role in his breakout season. He maintained 2014's FB% boost, and xPX shows he's had decent power for years.
- He benefited from some h% fortune, so while a full BA repeat is unlikely, Forsythe's improved ct% and xBA say he won't be a liability.
- He's historically struggled vs. RHP, which has hindered his AB total, but a .273/.353/.375 slash against them in 2015 (373 AB) shows signs of improvement.
Forsythe took full advantage of regular playing time, and while gravity is a powerful force, the BPIs suggest he'll hold many of 2015's gains. He's projected to lead off for TAM entering 2016, which could lead to an even higher AB total, making him a good bet to post double-digit value again in 2016.
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