(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Kipnis, B. Miller, Quintana, An. Sanchez, Britton
Mar 5 2016
Kipnis fading...When Facts/Flukes columnist Dave Adler looked at Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE) last July, he pointed out that Kipnis had changed his approach, trading strikeouts and power for contact and BA. He also noted that Kipnis was running less often and might not be a 30-SB threat going forward. Is there any hope of Kipnis returning to 2013 levels?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA HctX h% PX xPX Spd SB% ct% Eye LD OPS ==== === ===== === === ==== == === === === === === ==== === === 2011 136 7/5 272 289 103 32 166 126 89 93% 75 0.32 21% 841 2012 591 14/31 257 259 97 29 76 91 105 82% 82 0.61 23% 714 2013 564 17/30 284 265 109 35 125 128 99 81% 75 0.53 25% 818 2014 500 6/22 240 249 92 29 72 84 95 88% 80 0.50 23% 640 2015 565 9/12 303 285 107 36 103 97 120 60% 81 0.53 27% 823 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15-1H 320 6/10 341 307 110 39 112 89 122 67% 84 0.75 29% 925 15-2H 245 3/2 253 256 102 32 92 109 111 40% 78 0.33 24% 687
We are unlikely to see concurrent HR/SB totals approaching 2013, but he should remain a valuable BA asset with some power & speed.
- His Spd is still intact and actually better than ever in 2015. Formerly pristine SB% fell sharply in the 1H before the bottom dropped out in the 2H.
- 2013's power spike appears to have been an outlier given the slightly below league average xPX levels posted in three of the last four seasons. Any 15-1H PX optimism is nullified by the corresponding xPX.
- Consistently good LD% reached new heights in 2015 and, when considered in conjunction with HctX & Spd, give credence to his improved h%. BA/xBA are never too far apart and almost converge over the larger sample of Kipnis' MLB career (.272 BA/.270 xBA).
- Volatile OPS has much to do with h% fluctuations that may be the result of things beyond Kipnis' control. Consistent Eye, LD%, Spd, and HctX should provide a more stable h% & OPS year-to-year.
Kipnis hit the DL in early August with a sore left shoulder that likely contributed to his subpar 15-2H. Though Kipnis is unlikely to return to the near-$30 level of 2013, he maintains a stable set of skills that should continue to provide double-digit HR and SB totals along with a good BA.
Unlock all of our insights on your way to a fantasy title! See what our season-long coverage offers and then subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.
Miller flying under the radar...Traded by the Mariners to the Rays this offseason, Bradley Miller (SS/OF, TAM) begins the 2016 season as the presumptive regular SS in Tampa Bay. The former 2nd round pick has continued to flash the same intriguing power/speed skills in the majors that he did in the minors and as an amateur. What should we expect from Miller in his upcoming age 26 season?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% Eye HH% GB/LD/FB PX hr/f SB% Spd SBO% ===== === ===== === === === === ==== === ======== === ==== === === ==== 2012* 147 3/4 264 --- 12 79 0.67 --- -------- 82 ---- 76% 115 9% 2013+ 563 17/10 269 264 8 81 0.46 30% 46/22/32 97 10% 56% 137 11% 2014 367 10/ 4 221 236 8 74 0.36 31% 42/19/39 105 10% 67% 124 7% 2015 438 11/13 258 254 10 77 0.47 30% 48/20/31 97 10% 76% 113 14% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLB career splits: vLHP 305 2/3 226 --- 6 75 0.24 24% 50/18/32 45 3% 43% --- ---- vRHP 806 27/19 256 --- 10 79 0.51 33% 44/21/35 111 12% 79% --- ---- * MLEs + inc MLEs
There's a lot to like here, but ineptitude vs LHP governs his potential ceiling:
- League average PX and above average Spd make Miller a legit double-digit HR/SB threat at SS. Solid plate discipline, sufficient hard contact, and satisfactory batted ball profile should keep BA from becoming a drag.
- 2015 SB% rose to just beyond the break-even point and likely allowed Miller greater freedom on the base paths as SBO% doubled. Increased patience drove bb% into the double digits and should help sustain increased SBO%.
- Career results and skills vs LHP plummet across the board—and 2015 was no different. Currently, he's a liability when facing LHP and a potential strong-side platoon partner with teammate Tim Beckham (.733 OPSvL).
Miller has been mentioned as a likely candidate for the 2016 leadoff role in Tampa Bay, a development that could be a boon for his SB totals if consummated. His legs are one of the several paths to a $20 season mentioned in the 2016 Baseball Forecaster and the ADPs indicate that he can be acquired for much less. With multi-positional eligibility and upside beyond our projection, Miller makes for an attractive, potentially profitable 2016 investment.
Strong 2H a harbinger for Quintana?...When we last had a look under the hood at José Quintana (LHP, CHW) in July 2015, we indicated potential for ERA, Ctl, and Dom improvement over the balance of the season. On cue, Quintana posted a 2.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 127 BPV during the 2nd half of 2015. Now that we've finished tooting our own horn, should his strong finish move him up our 2016 draft boards?
Year IP ERA xERA S% GB/LD Ctl Dom Cmd FpK Ball% SwK hr/9 BPV DOM/DIS ==== === ==== ==== == ===== === === === === ===== === ==== === ======= 2012 136 3.76 4.34 75 47/22 2.8 5.3 1.9 61 38% 8 0.9 46 32%/32% 2013 200 3.51 3.85 75 43/20 2.5 7.4 2.9 66 37% 9 1.0 86 55%/12% 2014 200 3.32 3.51 73 45/22 2.3 8.0 3.4 66 36% 9 0.4 104 66%/ 6% 2015 206 3.36 3.60 75 47/23 1.9 7.7 4.0 69 35% 9 0.7 112 66%/ 6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15-1H 99 3.81 3.89 73 44/23 2.4 7.6 3.2 68 35% 10 0.7 96 56%/ 6% 15-2H 107 2.94 3.34 77 50/23 1.5 7.8 5.2 69 35% 9 0.7 127 75%/ 6%
While probably not an augury of sub-3.00 ERAs to come, there is room for potential improvement at the margins:
- Improved FpK and Ball% indicate that sub-2.0 Ctl could stick in 2016. This has also pushed Cmd to 4.0, a level typically achieved by the best SP in the game.
- His 2H GB% spike comes via pitch-mix change; Quintana decreased 4-seam FB use by 15% and increased use of sinking fastball and curveball by roughly the same amount. Both his fastball and curveball induce groundballs at a rate of 50% or more.
- Quintana's hr/9 has been better than average the last two years, and the additional GBs may help mute regression. But the greater positive effect could be on S%, as groundballs provide more double play opportunities with runners on base. This may explain the 2nd half S% uptick.
- SwK and Dom have remained largely static from 2013-2015, but if Quintana continues to increase use of his best pitch (curveball use, 2013-15: 20%/25%/31%) and it continues to induce more whiffs (SwK, 2013-15: 12%/12%/14%) his Dom could inch up into the low 8.0 range.
Though his stuff is not overpowering and he doesn't have much more room for growth, Quintana is a consistently good SP who often flies under the radar. Recent PQS-DOM%/DIS% figures paint a very accurate picture of who he is, and 2H DOM% also illustrates well the smidge of remaining projection. As one of only seven SP with AAA reliability and a 100+ BPV, Quintana should not be overlooked as you plan for your 2016 drafts and auctions.
For Sanchez, it looks worse than it really is...Just about anyone who rostered Aníbal Sánchez (RHP, DET) in 2015 feels shame, regret, and a determination not to make the same mistake twice. After posting a 5.00+ ERA in each of the season's first two months, Sanchez drew us back with a 2.63 ERA in June, before resuming his championship-inhibiting ways in July/August. His season finally (and mercifully) concluded when he was placed on the DL with a rotator cuff strain on August 20. Does this signal the end of fantasy relevance for Aníbal Sánchez?
Year IP ERA xERA Dom Ctl Cmd SwK Ball% Vel GB/LD/FB hr/f H%/S% BPV ==== === ==== ==== ==== === === === ===== ==== ======== ==== ===== === 2011 196 3.67 3.38 9.3 2.9 3.2 12 35% 91.7 44/20/36 10% 32/74 109 2012 196 3.86 3.7 7.7 2.2 3.5 10 34% 91.8 46/21/32 11% 32/72 103 2013 182 2.57 3.08 10.0 2.7 3.7 13 36% 93.0 45/22/33 6% 32/79 131 2014 126 3.43 3.58 7.3 2.1 3.4 10 35% 92.1 46/19/35 3% 29/67 97 2015 157 4.99 4.11 7.9 2.8 2.8 10 37% 91.9 40/21/39 16% 29/66 85 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15-1H 112 4.65 3.85 8.0 2.6 3.1 10 36% 91.9 41/21/38 15% 27/64 94 15-2H 45 5.84 4.75 7.7 3.4 2.2 9 38% 91.8 37/22/42 18% 33/70 60
With good health, a return to 2012-14 skill level is possible, but there's more risk now:
- Ugly 4.65 ERA in the 1H was largely the result of an unfortunate 15% hr/f. BPV and xERA indicate that Sanchez' skills were still intact to that point.
- 2H skills and results can at least be partially attributed to the cranky shoulder that eventually ended his season prematurely.
- Consistent Vel and SwK raise no warning flags, and are sufficient enough for Sanchez to maintain his typical ~8.0 Dom level. The combination of rising Ball%, FB%, and hr/f in 1H to 2H is a cause for concern and may keep Sanchez from bouncing all the way back.
Sanchez' two-year run of single digit hr/f rates in 2013-2014 were bound regress at some point. His 3-year hr/f average from 2013-15 of 9% is the same as his career rate, so perhaps the optimist would say 2015's 16% hr/f was merely statistical normalization. It does appear that some of 2015's poor performance can be blamed on injury and since there's little indication of diminished velocity or stuff, the 32-year-old Sanchez could end 2016 with a line that looks very similar to the one he posted in 2014. However, it would be wise to keep the 2016 Baseball Forecaster's "5.00 ERA, more DL time" downside in mind and invest modestly, if at all.
Britton is an elite closer...When the Orioles decided to move Zach Britton (LHP, BAL) to the bullpen prior to the 2014 season, they asked him to ditch all of his secondary pitches and focus on improving the command of his sinker. Britton then went out and limited opposing hitters to a .500 oOPS in 2014, and hurled his sinker 91% of the time. He then worked to improve his breaking ball, and his SwK rate on the pitch increased from 18% to 31%, clearly the driving force behind the additional 3.5 strikeouts per nine that he added in 2015. What could Britton be working on for 2016—and could he possibly get any better?
Year SV ERA xERA S% GB Dom Ctl Cmd FpK Ball% SwK Vel hr/9 BPV ==== == ==== ==== == == ==== === === === ===== === ==== ==== === 2011 0 4.61 4.20 68 53 5.7 3.6 1.6 53 40% 7 92.1 0.7 35 2012 0 5.07 4.01 68 61 7.9 4.8 1.7 51 42% 10 92.0 0.9 52 2013 0 4.95 4.76 72 58 4.1 3.8 1.1 54 40% 7 91.6 0.9 6 2014 37 1.65 2.44 85 75 7.3 2.7 2.7 55 36% 13 95.1 0.5 111 2015 36 1.92 1.75 82 79 10.8 1.9 5.6 64 31% 17 95.9 0.4 200 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15-2H 13 2.03 1.55 82 86 11.0 2.0 5.4 68 31% 19 96.6 0.6 208
Britton has already ascended higher than most expected, but may not have reached the pinnacle:
- Pitching out of the pen has allowed Britton to really let loose and it appears his fastball velocity may not have topped out yet, approaching 97 mph in the 2nd half. GB% also spiked with move to the pen and has continued to rise, topping out at an amazing 86% in the 2nd half.
- Increased velocity and improved command must make his sinker seem like a bowling ball to opposing hitters. Extremely high S% is probably very sustainable as GBs with runners on often result in a force out or double play.
- 2015 Ball% and 15-2H FpK are indicative of Ctl levels closer to 1.5. With a 17%+ SwK there's room for more Dom growth too.
If he's not already the top closer in the game, Britton has certainly worked his way into the conversation. His 2015 BPIs, already lofty, somehow improved in the second half. If you're in the market for an elite closer in 2016, Britton is as good or better than the first ones off the board and can often be acquired a round or two later.
More From Facts & Flukes
Is Cole Ragans a legitimate ace? We'll examine the skills and luck factors for Ragans, Josh Lowe, Gavin Williams, Matt Wallner, and Seranthony Domínguez.
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Sep 5 2024 3:10am
Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing 2024 season, but at least his power has returned in the second half. How are things under the hood? Plus, Raisel Iglesias, Willy Adames, Ezequiel Tovar, and Carlos Estévez.
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Sep 4 2024 3:03am
Jackson Merrill runs hot, David Bednar looks for better results, Spencer Steer cools off lately, Paul Sewald loses some skills, and Luis García increases his R$.
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
Sep 3 2024 3:03am
If Royce Lewis stayed healthy, he could put up massive numbers. We'll look at the skills and luck factors for Lewis, Bryan Woo, Jose Siri, Osvaldo Bido, and Dylan Carlson.
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
Aug 29 2024 3:03am
After belting 40 HR in 2022 and 46 HR in 2023, Pete Alonso has 27 HR through 556 PA. How are things under the hood? Plus, Zac Gallen, J.D. Martinez, Michael Kopech, and Joey Bart.
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
Aug 28 2024 3:03am
