(*) FACTS/FLUKES: J. Fernandez, Puig, Cashner, S. Castro, Asche

Fernandez exceeds expectations … Though Jose Fernandez (RHP, MIA) came into the season accompanied by high praise, even his most optimistic supporters have to be surprised at his year-to-date output. One tool we use in assessing long-term viability for rookies is second half stats, when opponents theoretically get that second look at a player. Fernandez appears to have adjusted pretty well:

Year    IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  hr/9  H%    G/L/F   hr/f  BPV
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ====  ==  ========  ====  ===
2013   153  2.30  3.05  3.0   9.7  3.2   0.5  26  45/23/31    7%  117
---------------------------------------------------------------------
13-1H   85  2.98  3.52  3.4   8.9  2.6   0.6  27  43/23/34    8%   90
13-2H   68  1.46  2.51  2.5  10.7  4.3   0.3  25  48/24/28    5%  151

More than “appears,” actually. His prognosis going forward could hardly be more impressive when one examines his 1H/2H splits:

• He’s elevated “very good” command to an elite level. Walking less, striking out more.
• Fernandez has also induced ground balls at a noticeably higher rate in the second half. If he’s not striking out batters, many are only making weak contact.
• xERA and BPV figures—reliable gauges of overall skill—have taken noticeable leaps forward since July 1.

Fernandez has been a bit on the lucky side, especially in the second half, in terms of h% and hr/f, but the raw skill that has gotten better over that time, as well as his impressive pitch arsenal (96 mph fastball; tight breaking curve) mitigates concerns about a sophomore slump. He likely has only one or two more starts this season before the Marlins shut him down due to an innings limit. But this is what a profile of a true “ace” looks like.

 

Tough to get a handle on Puig … Yasiel Puig’s (OF, LA) 50% h% and 33% hr/f over his first 100 MLB AB so skewed his results that it was hard to get an accurate read on his true ability. As he nears the 300-AB mark, we have a more reasonable body of data to work with:

Year    AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  h%    G/L/F    PX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  HR/SB
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ===  ====  ===  ===  =====
2013   278  .342  .278    8   75  42  51/19/30  143   19%  133  15%  12/ 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun13  101  .436  .318    4   80  50  53/21/27  168   33%  135  14%   7/ 4
Jul13   94  .287  .240    8   67  40  48/23/28  121   17%   94  26%   3/ 3
Aug13   83  .289  .268   13   78  35  52/14/35  132    9%  122   4%   2/ 0

While his YTD line is still outlandish, his monthly splits give us a little more insight:

• His BPI show that he’s a legitimate power/speed threat in terms of raw skill. As hr/f and SBO have fluctuated, so have his HR/SB totals.
• He’s shown some resolve in bouncing back from a poor plate approach in July. As pitchers seemly have thrown him less strikes, Puig has laid off pitches out of the zone.
• His xBA over the past two months has been nothing special. Looks like his impact will be more with counting stats (HR, SB) than with BA.
• And wherever his hr/f settles, HR will be capped at least temporarily by a large GB tilt. That GB output has been about the most consistent part of his game over this three-month stretch.

We all knew Puig would regress some after a June like he had, but we’re still getting ahold of what “normal” might look like for him. August (35% h%; 9% hr/f) is probably a working first guess for now, and the reality is that in terms of output, it might be disappointing. There’s a good chance he’s overvalued come draft day 2014.

 

Casher’s success still a tease … By all accounts, Andrew Cashner (RHP, SD) has fantastic stuff (led by a 95.5 mph four-seam fastball). So the fact that he’s finally been healthy enough to log nearly 150 innings is good news, right?

Year    IP  GS   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  hr/9    G/L/F   hr/f  BPV
====   ===  ==  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ====  ========  ====  ===
2012    46   5  4.27  3.18  3.7  10.1  2.7   1.0  53/23/24   17%  113
2013   144  15  3.55  3.83  2.7   6.2  2.3   0.7  51/19/30    8%   69

Sorta. His base ERA/WHIP has been fine, but other aspects of his game seem to not quite match up:

• This far of a dip in his strikeout rate upon moving to the rotation is a surprise. Though his fastball lost a couple mph (typical when moving from the bullpen), his Dom dropped off considerably.
• Better Ctl is certainly the upshot; cutting his walks by 1.0 per nine innings is an excellent practice in any role.
• With other factors stable, his fantastic GB rate is also a plus. It helps keep his pitches in the park.

So far, there’s been no noticeable fatigue factor for Cashner, though it would not be a surprise for the team to skip his turn or shut him down a bit early this September. While his ERA is supported by xERA and favorable for a starter, the puzzling Dom drop will be something to watch in the future. A cog for 2014, but not yet a centerpiece.

 

Chances for Castro rebound? … If it’s not been done already, time to close the book on 2013 Starlin Castro (SS, CHC). The 23-year-old has had a miserable season in the first year of a seven-year contract, both at the plate and in the field. From a fantasy perspective, does he deserve a mulligan?

Year    AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  h%    G/L/F    PX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  HR/SB
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ===  ====  ===  ===  =====
2010   463  .300  .275    6   85  35  51/20/29   79    3%  136  14%   3/10
2011   674  .307  .273    5   86  35  49/20/31   82    5%  143  17%  10/22
2012   646  .283  .271    5   85  32  47/21/32   87    8%  152  23%  14/25
2013   537  .238  .243    4   80  29  49/20/31   70    5%  121  11%   7/ 8

Setting aside the reports of questionable attitude, there’s some hope for a better 2014—but expectations should be re-adjusted, too:

• First, some of his BPI haven’t changed. His GLF numbers are within a narrow range, and perhaps most importantly, he’s hit ~20% line drives for the fourth straight season. A h% below his established level is the main reason for the BA dive in 2013.
• Second, hr/f is pretty much the same story; he’s never provided anything really close to league-average power. His HR trend over the first three seasons was a bit misleading.
• Third, his SBO has been essentially cut in half, so his SB potential—a big part of his fantasy value with his questionable power—has declined, as seen in the SB numbers.
• But, regarding expectations: his base hitting skills—bb%, ct%—have both been worse in 2013. Considering his age and the amount of MLB experience, one would expect this season to be one of growth, rather than a step backwards.

It’s easy to disparage CHC for giving him that long-term contract, but this is the type of player—young, with a significant baseline of MLB AB—who often takes a big production step forward. Not this time. Though his 2013 disappointment will stick with many, one thing will be certain: he should be a cheap fantasy buy for 2014.

 

First Impression: Cody Asche (3B, PHI)

CALLED UP: July 31
CURRENT ROLE: Starting 3B
POTENTIAL FUTURE ROLE: Starting 3B
2013 MINORS STATS:   Lehigh Valley (AAA) - 404 AB, .295/.352/.485, 24 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 11 SB, 0.37 Eye

Year        AB   BA   bb%  ct%    G/L/F    PX  hr/f  HR   xBA
======     ===  ====  ===  ===  ========  ===  ====  ==  ====
2012-aa*   263  .269    6   76     --     125   --    8    -
2013-mlb    80  .238    6   80  41/22/37  111    9%   2  .266
*MLE

Asche has not been overwhelmed during an extended tryout at third base over the past month:

• Plate patience is not his strong suit, but he’s maintained nearly the same walk rate from his 2012 MLEs and 2013 in triple-A (8%).
• He’s improved his contact rate and has shown some line-drive ability. A 27% hit rate is responsible for some of the BA/xBA difference.
• Asche has demonstrated above-average power in his short stint so far.

Asche was a quick riser through the Phillies system, but brings a decent approach and so far has shown no huge holes. Could well be that this is PHI's starting third baseman on Opening Day 2014, and if so, expect about league-average results.

 

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