(*) FACTS/FLUKES: J. Fernandez, Puig, Cashner, S. Castro, Asche
Aug 26 2013
Fernandez exceeds expectations … Though Jose Fernandez (RHP, MIA) came into the season accompanied by high praise, even his most optimistic supporters have to be surprised at his year-to-date output. One tool we use in assessing long-term viability for rookies is second half stats, when opponents theoretically get that second look at a player. Fernandez appears to have adjusted pretty well:
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 H% G/L/F hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === ==== == ======== ==== === 2013 153 2.30 3.05 3.0 9.7 3.2 0.5 26 45/23/31 7% 117 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 13-1H 85 2.98 3.52 3.4 8.9 2.6 0.6 27 43/23/34 8% 90 13-2H 68 1.46 2.51 2.5 10.7 4.3 0.3 25 48/24/28 5% 151
More than “appears,” actually. His prognosis going forward could hardly be more impressive when one examines his 1H/2H splits:
- He’s elevated “very good” command to an elite level. Walking less, striking out more.
- Fernandez has also induced ground balls at a noticeably higher rate in the second half. If he’s not striking out batters, many are only making weak contact.
- xERA and BPV figures—reliable gauges of overall skill—have taken noticeable leaps forward since July 1.
Fernandez has been a bit on the lucky side, especially in the second half, in terms of h% and hr/f, but the raw skill that has gotten better over that time, as well as his impressive pitch arsenal (96 mph fastball; tight breaking curve) mitigates concerns about a sophomore slump. He likely has only one or two more starts this season before the Marlins shut him down due to an innings limit. But this is what a profile of a true “ace” looks like.
Tough to get a handle on Puig … Yasiel Puig’s (OF, LA) 50% h% and 33% hr/f over his first 100 MLB AB so skewed his results that it was hard to get an accurate read on his true ability. As he nears the 300-AB mark, we have a more reasonable body of data to work with:
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== === ==== === === ===== 2013 278 .342 .278 8 75 42 51/19/30 143 19% 133 15% 12/ 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jun13 101 .436 .318 4 80 50 53/21/27 168 33% 135 14% 7/ 4 Jul13 94 .287 .240 8 67 40 48/23/28 121 17% 94 26% 3/ 3 Aug13 83 .289 .268 13 78 35 52/14/35 132 9% 122 4% 2/ 0
While his YTD line is still outlandish, his monthly splits give us a little more insight:
- His BPI show that he’s a legitimate power/speed threat in terms of raw skill. As hr/f and SBO have fluctuated, so have his HR/SB totals.
- He’s shown some resolve in bouncing back from a poor plate approach in July. As pitchers seemly have thrown him less strikes, Puig has laid off pitches out of the zone.
- His xBA over the past two months has been nothing special. Looks like his impact will be more with counting stats (HR, SB) than with BA.
- And wherever his hr/f settles, HR will be capped at least temporarily by a large GB tilt. That GB output has been about the most consistent part of his game over this three-month stretch.
We all knew Puig would regress some after a June like he had, but we’re still getting ahold of what “normal” might look like for him. August (35% h%; 9% hr/f) is probably a working first guess for now, and the reality is that in terms of output, it might be disappointing. There’s a good chance he’s overvalued come draft day 2014.
Casher’s success still a tease … By all accounts, Andrew Cashner (RHP, SD) has fantastic stuff (led by a 95.5 mph four-seam fastball). So the fact that he’s finally been healthy enough to log nearly 150 innings is good news, right?
Year IP GS ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd hr/9 G/L/F hr/f BPV ==== === == ==== ==== === ==== === ==== ======== ==== === 2012 46 5 4.27 3.18 3.7 10.1 2.7 1.0 53/23/24 17% 113 2013 144 15 3.55 3.83 2.7 6.2 2.3 0.7 51/19/30 8% 69
Sorta. His base ERA/WHIP has been fine, but other aspects of his game seem to not quite match up:
- This far of a dip in his strikeout rate upon moving to the rotation is a surprise. Though his fastball lost a couple mph (typical when moving from the bullpen), his Dom dropped off considerably.
- Better Ctl is certainly the upshot; cutting his walks by 1.0 per nine innings is an excellent practice in any role.
- With other factors stable, his fantastic GB rate is also a plus. It helps keep his pitches in the park.
So far, there’s been no noticeable fatigue factor for Cashner, though it would not be a surprise for the team to skip his turn or shut him down a bit early this September. While his ERA is supported by xERA and favorable for a starter, the puzzling Dom drop will be something to watch in the future. A cog for 2014, but not yet a centerpiece.
Chances for Castro rebound? … If it’s not been done already, time to close the book on 2013 Starlin Castro (SS, CHC). The 23-year-old has had a miserable season in the first year of a seven-year contract, both at the plate and in the field. From a fantasy perspective, does he deserve a mulligan?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F PX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== === ==== === === ===== 2010 463 .300 .275 6 85 35 51/20/29 79 3% 136 14% 3/10 2011 674 .307 .273 5 86 35 49/20/31 82 5% 143 17% 10/22 2012 646 .283 .271 5 85 32 47/21/32 87 8% 152 23% 14/25 2013 537 .238 .243 4 80 29 49/20/31 70 5% 121 11% 7/ 8
Setting aside the reports of questionable attitude, there’s some hope for a better 2014—but expectations should be re-adjusted, too:
- First, some of his BPI haven’t changed. His GLF numbers are within a narrow range, and perhaps most importantly, he’s hit ~20% line drives for the fourth straight season. A h% below his established level is the main reason for the BA dive in 2013.
- Second, hr/f is pretty much the same story; he’s never provided anything really close to league-average power. His HR trend over the first three seasons was a bit misleading.
- Third, his SBO has been essentially cut in half, so his SB potential—a big part of his fantasy value with his questionable power—has declined, as seen in the SB numbers.
- But, regarding expectations: his base hitting skills—bb%, ct%—have both been worse in 2013. Considering his age and the amount of MLB experience, one would expect this season to be one of growth, rather than a step backwards.
It’s easy to disparage CHC for giving him that long-term contract, but this is the type of player—young, with a significant baseline of MLB AB—who often takes a big production step forward. Not this time. Though his 2013 disappointment will stick with many, one thing will be certain: he should be a cheap fantasy buy for 2014.
First Impression: Cody Asche (3B, PHI)
CALLED UP: July 31
CURRENT ROLE: Starting 3B
POTENTIAL FUTURE ROLE: Starting 3B
2013 MINORS STATS: Lehigh Valley (AAA) - 404 AB, .295/.352/.485, 24 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 11 SB, 0.37 Eye
Year AB BA bb% ct% G/L/F PX hr/f HR xBA ====== === ==== === === ======== === ==== == ==== 2012-aa* 263 .269 6 76 -- 125 -- 8 - 2013-mlb 80 .238 6 80 41/22/37 111 9% 2 .266 *MLE
Asche has not been overwhelmed during an extended tryout at third base over the past month:
- Plate patience is not his strong suit, but he’s maintained nearly the same walk rate from his 2012 MLEs and 2013 in triple-A (8%).
- He’s improved his contact rate and has shown some line-drive ability. A 27% hit rate is responsible for some of the BA/xBA difference.
- Asche has demonstrated above-average power in his short stint so far.
Asche was a quick riser through the Phillies system, but brings a decent approach and so far has shown no huge holes. Could well be that this is PHI's starting third baseman on Opening Day 2014, and if so, expect about league-average results.
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