(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Fielder, Hughes, Kinsler, Santiago, Forsythe
Jun 1 2015
Gauging Fielder's rebound ... One of the bigger unknowns in owner's minds on draft day was the rebound potential of Prince Fielder (DH, TEX). Fielder hit just three HR with a .247 BA before neck surgery ended his season last May. He's back with a vengeance in 2015 with 10 HR and a .361 BA—is the rebound legit?
Year AB BA xBA h% bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB HR PX xPX hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== == === === ==== ======== == === === ==== === 2011 569 .299 .306 31 16 81 140 43/20/37 38 170 145 20% 109 2012 581 .313 .304 33 13 86 132 41/25/33 30 126 128 18% 84 2013 624 .279 .275 31 11 81 116 41/23/36 25 119 128 14% 55 2014 150 .247 .251 28 14 84 95 50/19/31 3 83 68 8% 46 2015 202 .361 .292 38 6 87 146 42/21/37 10 123 136 16% 69
The skills look awfully similar to his pre-injury days:
- Fielder's early-season HR barrage is for real. While the mega-power from early in his career is likely gone, all of Fielder's indicators (PX, xPX, hr/f, and FB%) are roughly in line with 2012-13 levels.
- A shift in plate approach shows that he's been less patient at the dish, but Fielder's ct% has risen to a career-high level. Certainly a tradeoff we can live with given elite HctX.
- Fielder's current h% is way too high, but xBA suggests he could certainly flirt with .300 throughout the summer.
Fielder's impressive performance—both above and below the surface—suggests that 2014's neck injury is well behind him. Keep in mind, however, that Fielder is now on the wrong side of 30, and he showed a pretty stark power decline from 2011-13 (see PX, hr/f). But with more contact and decent power skills back in place, Fielder looks like he'll make a run at a .300 BA with 30 HR, which would put him among the top fantasy 1B for 2015. Outside of some BA pullback, there's no reason to sell high.
Hughes' elite Ctl offers stability, not much else ... After years of 4.00+ ERA, Phil Hughes (RHP, MIN) went out and posted the highest ever single-season Cmd (11.6) of any starting pitcher in 2014. He's fallen back a bit in his encore performance, though, with an ERA more than a full run higher than last season. What should we expect moving forward?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ===== ==== === === ==== === 2011 75 5.79 4.93 3.3 5.7 1.7 32/23/45 31/62 8% 68% 7% 91.3 24 2012 191 4.23 4.30 2.2 7.8 3.6 32/20/48 30/73 12% 66% 9% 92.1 91 2013 145 5.19 4.44 2.6 7.5 2.9 31/23/46 34/68 11% 71% 9% 92.4 74 2014 209 3.52 3.39 0.7 8.0 11.6 37/23/40 34/70 6% 73% 9% 92.1 139 2015 65 4.59 4.20 0.8 5.7 6.8 34/24/42 31/70 13% 75% 6% 91.1 92
A repeat of 2014 will be tough:
- Hughes' first-pitch strike rate continues to soar towards elite levels. It's not surprising to see such pinpoint control.
- The fall in Dom has hurt his overall production, and similar dips in fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate suggest we might not see a rebound.
- xERA isn't as bad as his surface ERA, but it's above 4.00 for the fifth time in six years.
Hughes' impeccable control is his greatest asset, and while it makes Cmd and BPV look elite, there are some warning signs. Drops in velocity and SwK cap Hughes' strikeout potential, and his LD%/FB% combo makes Hughes more prone to giving up extra base hits and home runs. Elite Ctl makes Hughes a very reliable SP—he has just two PQS-DISaster outings since the start of 2014—but it looks like another sub-4.00 ERA by season's end will be an uphill battle.
Where did Kinsler's power go? ... Counting stat producers up the middle don't get much more consistent than Ian Kinsler (2B, DET), who has posted double-digit HR and SB in every season of his career—save for a nine HR performance in 2010. Kinsler, though, has just one home run in nearly 200 AB this year. What's behind the power outage?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd HR/SB BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === ===== === 2011 620 .255 .286 13 89 129 24 35/18/47 130 125 12% 109 32/30 118 2012 655 .256 .268 8 86 100 27 38/20/42 103 88 8% 107 19/21 78 2013 545 .277 .275 9 89 124 29 37/24/39 87 109 7% 101 13/15 76 2014 684 .275 .267 4 88 92 29 38/20/43 96 84 7% 116 17/15 76 2015 196 .270 .253 11 85 88 31 39/23/38 69 85 2% 116 1/ 6 55
He's still a productive player, but Kinsler's skills are in decline:
- Kinsler's ct% is starting to leak a bit, and xBA is coming down with it. Soft HctX says he isn't making as much hard contact either.
- While Kinsler's PX has collapsed, his xPX is roughly in line with the past few seasons. It's still below average, though, so don't expect a major power outburst moving forward.
- Speed is hanging on as he enters his mid-30s. He's running a bit less than in the past, but Kinsler's end-of-season SB total should meet preseason expectations.
Kinsler has been one of the more stable 2B in baseball throughout his career, and while we're starting to see some decline, he's not done yet. Kinsler still has a shot at double-digit HR and SB while putting up a league-average BA. At 33, there's not much upside left, but Kinsler's track record suggests we shouldn't completely jump ship at this point.
Santiago's start fueled by luck ... Héctor Santiago (LHP, LAA) has enjoyed moderate success early in his career with three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons from 2012-14. He's off to an even better start in 2015 (2.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)—are we seeing a potential breakout in the making?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === === 2012 70 3.33 4.11 5.1 10.1 2.0 38/20/42 27/81 14% 56% 9% 60 2013 149 3.56 4.38 4.3 8.3 1.9 36/20/43 30/78 9% 57% 9% 46 2014 127 3.75 4.53 3.7 7.6 2.0 31/19/50 29/76 8% 56% 8% 45 2015 62 2.18 4.26 3.6 8.3 2.3 30/20/49 26/87 7% 60% 9% 59
There are too many warts in Santiago's skill set to expect this to continue:
- xERA is far from sold on the hot start, which has been aided by a trifecta of fortunate H%, S%, and hr/f.
- While Santiago's control is nothing to get excited about, there are some underlying FpK gains worth noting. Coupled with solid Dom, Santiago's Cmd should rest in the low- to mid-2.0s.
- He gives up a ton of fly balls, which puts much of Santiago's ERA in the hands of the hr/f gods. They've been nice to him so far, but a few more errant gusts of wind could wreak havoc.
Santiago has been able to outpitch his skills in each season throughout his career thanks to beneficial strand rates and hr/f. However, a glance down the xERA column indicates that this isn't a skill set worth investing in—specifically due to shaky Cmd and a heavy FB tilt. Sell Santiago's sub-2.50 ERA if you can; it won't last much longer.
Forsythe quietly making gains ... Logan Forsythe (2B, TAM) was a forgotten man entering 2015 drafts, most likely because he's never been more than a part-time player throughout his career. That's changed in 2015 as Forsythe is playing every day, and he's on track to put up career-high numbers. Can he sustain this?
Year AB BA xBA ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd HR/SB OPSvR ==== === ==== ==== === ==== == ======== === === ==== === ===== ===== 2011 150 .213 .226 78 101 27 43/20/37 65 98 0% 106 0/ 3 .577 2012 315 .273 .258 82 116 32 36/29/35 74 107 7% 145 6/ 8 .603 2013 220 .214 .250 75 100 26 42/28/29 80 105 13% 94 6/ 6 .593 2014 301 .223 .224 76 83 27 41/19/40 80 100 6% 107 6/ 2 .536 2015 168 .286 .275 83 111 32 36/22/41 114 119 9% 110 5/ 3 .771
Forsythe's skills have taken a considerable step forward so far:
- A big jump in ct% has driven Forsythe's BA gains. He's not just slapping at the ball either, as HctX is above league average as well.
- The HR boost has been supported by some big PX gains, and xPX shows that it's backed up by our hard-hit ball data.
- A knock on Forsythe entering the season was his struggles vs. RHP, which he's improved upon this year. Forsythe's ct% vs. RHP has risen each of the last two years (72% ct% in '13; 79% in '14; 85% in '15)
Keep in mind that Forsythe held a sub-30 BPV over nearly 1,000 career AB entering 2015, so he'll need to hold 2015's gains over a longer sample. Still, Forsythe's plate skills and underlying power metrics are simultaneously on the rise—always a great sign—and his improvement vs. RHP has earned him an everyday role. If he keeps this up, Forsythe has a shot at a .270-ish BA with double-digit HR and SB, which would make him a profitable multi-position option in any league.
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