(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Fielder, Hughes, Kinsler, Santiago, Forsythe

Gauging Fielder's rebound ... One of the bigger unknowns in owner's minds on draft day was the rebound potential of Prince Fielder (DH, TEX). Fielder hit just three HR with a .247 BA before neck surgery ended his season last May. He's back with a vengeance in 2015 with 10 HR and a .361 BA—is the rebound legit?

Year  AB    BA    xBA  h%  bb%  ct%  HctX  GB/LD/FB  HR  PX   xPX  hr/f  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ==  ===  ===  ====  ========  ==  ===  ===  ====  ===
2011  569  .299  .306  31   16   81   140  43/20/37  38  170  145   20%  109
2012  581  .313  .304  33   13   86   132  41/25/33  30  126  128   18%   84
2013  624  .279  .275  31   11   81   116  41/23/36  25  119  128   14%   55
2014  150  .247  .251  28   14   84    95  50/19/31   3   83   68    8%   46
2015  202  .361  .292  38    6   87   146  42/21/37  10  123  136   16%   69

The skills look awfully similar to his pre-injury days:

• Fielder's early-season HR barrage is for real. While the mega-power from early in his career is likely gone, all of Fielder's indicators (PX, xPX, hr/f, and FB%) are roughly in line with 2012-13 levels.
• A shift in plate approach shows that he's been less patient at the dish, but Fielder's ct% has risen to a career-high level. Certainly a tradeoff we can live with given elite HctX.
• Fielder's current h% is way too high, but xBA suggests he could certainly flirt with .300 throughout the summer.

Fielder's impressive performance—both above and below the surface—suggests that 2014's neck injury is well behind him. Keep in mind, however, that Fielder is now on the wrong side of 30, and he showed a pretty stark power decline from 2011-13 (see PX, hr/f). But with more contact and decent power skills back in place, Fielder looks like he'll make a run at a .300 BA with 30 HR, which would put him among the top fantasy 1B for 2015. Outside of some BA pullback, there's no reason to sell high.

 

Hughes' elite Ctl offers stability, not much else ... After years of 4.00+ ERA, Phil Hughes (RHP, MIN) went out and posted the highest ever single-season Cmd (11.6) of any starting pitcher in 2014. He's fallen back a bit in his encore performance, though, with an ERA more than a full run higher than last season. What should we expect moving forward?

Year  IP   ERA   xERA  Ctl  Dom   Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  hr/f  FpK  SwK   Vel  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ===
2011   75  5.79  4.93  3.3  5.7   1.7  32/23/45  31/62    8%  68%   7%  91.3   24
2012  191  4.23  4.30  2.2  7.8   3.6  32/20/48  30/73   12%  66%   9%  92.1   91
2013  145  5.19  4.44  2.6  7.5   2.9  31/23/46  34/68   11%  71%   9%  92.4   74
2014  209  3.52  3.39  0.7  8.0  11.6  37/23/40  34/70    6%  73%   9%  92.1  139
2015   65  4.59  4.20  0.8  5.7   6.8  34/24/42  31/70   13%  75%   6%  91.1   92

A repeat of 2014 will be tough:

• Hughes' first-pitch strike rate continues to soar towards elite levels. It's not surprising to see such pinpoint control.
• The fall in Dom has hurt his overall production, and similar dips in fastball velocity and swinging-strike rate suggest we might not see a rebound.
• xERA isn't as bad as his surface ERA, but it's above 4.00 for the fifth time in six years.

Hughes' impeccable control is his greatest asset, and while it makes Cmd and BPV look elite, there are some warning signs. Drops in velocity and SwK cap Hughes' strikeout potential, and his LD%/FB% combo makes Hughes more prone to giving up extra base hits and home runs. Elite Ctl makes Hughes a very reliable SP—he has just two PQS-DISaster outings since the start of 2014—but it looks like another sub-4.00 ERA by season's end will be an uphill battle.

 

Where did Kinsler's power go? ... Counting stat producers up the middle don't get much more consistent than Ian Kinsler (2B, DET), who has posted double-digit HR and SB in every season of his career—save for a nine HR performance in 2010. Kinsler, though, has just one home run in nearly 200 AB this year. What's behind the power outage?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  Spd  HR/SB  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ===  =====  ===
2011  620  .255  .286   13   89   129  24  35/18/47  130  125   12%  109  32/30  118
2012  655  .256  .268    8   86   100  27  38/20/42  103   88    8%  107  19/21   78
2013  545  .277  .275    9   89   124  29  37/24/39   87  109    7%  101  13/15   76
2014  684  .275  .267    4   88    92  29  38/20/43   96   84    7%  116  17/15   76
2015  196  .270  .253   11   85    88  31  39/23/38   69   85    2%  116   1/ 6   55

He's still a productive player, but Kinsler's skills are in decline:

• Kinsler's ct% is starting to leak a bit, and xBA is coming down with it. Soft HctX says he isn't making as much hard contact either.
• While Kinsler's PX has collapsed, his xPX is roughly in line with the past few seasons. It's still below average, though, so don't expect a major power outburst moving forward.
• Speed is hanging on as he enters his mid-30s. He's running a bit less than in the past, but Kinsler's end-of-season SB total should meet preseason expectations.

Kinsler has been one of the more stable 2B in baseball throughout his career, and while we're starting to see some decline, he's not done yet. Kinsler still has a shot at double-digit HR and SB while putting up a league-average BA. At 33, there's not much upside left, but Kinsler's track record suggests we shouldn't completely jump ship at this point.

 

Santiago's start fueled by luck ... Héctor Santiago (LHP, LAA) has enjoyed moderate success early in his career with three straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons from 2012-14. He's off to an even better start in 2015 (2.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)—are we seeing a potential breakout in the making?

Year  IP   ERA   xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  hr/f  FpK  SwK  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  ===
2012   70  3.33  4.11  5.1 10.1  2.0  38/20/42  27/81   14%  56%   9%   60
2013  149  3.56  4.38  4.3  8.3  1.9  36/20/43  30/78    9%  57%   9%   46
2014  127  3.75  4.53  3.7  7.6  2.0  31/19/50  29/76    8%  56%   8%   45
2015   62  2.18  4.26  3.6  8.3  2.3  30/20/49  26/87    7%  60%   9%   59

There are too many warts in Santiago's skill set to expect this to continue:

• xERA is far from sold on the hot start, which has been aided by a trifecta of fortunate H%, S%, and hr/f.
• While Santiago's control is nothing to get excited about, there are some underlying FpK gains worth noting. Coupled with solid Dom, Santiago's Cmd should rest in the low- to mid-2.0s.
• He gives up a ton of fly balls, which puts much of Santiago's ERA in the hands of the hr/f gods. They've been nice to him so far, but a few more errant gusts of wind could wreak havoc.

Santiago has been able to outpitch his skills in each season throughout his career thanks to beneficial strand rates and hr/f. However, a glance down the xERA column indicates that this isn't a skill set worth investing in—specifically due to shaky Cmd and a heavy FB tilt. Sell Santiago's sub-2.50 ERA if you can; it won't last much longer.

 

Forsythe quietly making gains ... Logan Forsythe (2B, TAM) was a forgotten man entering 2015 drafts, most likely because he's never been more than a part-time player throughout his career. That's changed in 2015 as Forsythe is playing every day, and he's on track to put up career-high numbers. Can he sustain this?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  Spd  HR/SB  OPSvR
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ===  =====  =====
2011  150  .213  .226   78   101  27  43/20/37   65   98    0%  106   0/ 3   .577
2012  315  .273  .258   82   116  32  36/29/35   74  107    7%  145   6/ 8   .603
2013  220  .214  .250   75   100  26  42/28/29   80  105   13%   94   6/ 6   .593
2014  301  .223  .224   76    83  27  41/19/40   80  100    6%  107   6/ 2   .536
2015  168  .286  .275   83   111  32  36/22/41  114  119    9%  110   5/ 3   .771

Forsythe's skills have taken a considerable step forward so far:

• A big jump in ct% has driven Forsythe's BA gains. He's not just slapping at the ball either, as HctX is above league average as well.
• The HR boost has been supported by some big PX gains, and xPX shows that it's backed up by our hard-hit ball data.
• A knock on Forsythe entering the season was his struggles vs. RHP, which he's improved upon this year. Forsythe's ct% vs. RHP has risen each of the last two years (72% ct% in '13; 79% in '14; 85% in '15)

Keep in mind that Forsythe held a sub-30 BPV over nearly 1,000 career AB entering 2015, so he'll need to hold 2015's gains over a longer sample. Still, Forsythe's plate skills and underlying power metrics are simultaneously on the rise—always a great sign—and his improvement vs. RHP has earned him an everyday role. If he keeps this up, Forsythe has a shot at a .270-ish BA with double-digit HR and SB, which would make him a profitable multi-position option in any league.

 

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