(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Cruz, Kimbrel, Gregorius, Odorizzi, Zunino
Mar 12 2017
Cruz aging well ... After an injury-riddled start to his career, Nelson Cruz (DH, SEA) has morphed into one of the most reliable power sources in the game. He's averaged nearly 600 AB with 40+ HR over the last three seasons, but at 37, how long can Cruz's late-career surge last?
Year AB BA xBA ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== == ======== === === ==== == === 2013 413 .266 .264 74 120 30 42/17/41 162 154 21% 27 61 2014 613 .271 .285 77 119 29 42/17/41 173 131 20% 40 92 2015 590 .302 .277 72 113 33 46/20/34 169 138 30% 44 70 2016 589 .287 .274 73 108 35 44/18/38 160 134 26% 43 67
Expect the mashing to continue for now:
- Cruz's hr/f baseline is impressive, and there's little reason to think it'll fall given his lofty (and stable) PX/xPX combo.
- There's some swing-and-miss with all that power, but while Cruz benefited from a career-high h%, xBA tells us he'll still post a reasonable BA.
- Further confirming Cruz's ability to mash: Statcast's exit velocity. Cruz led MLB with a 95.9 mph average EV in 2016 (min. 100 BIP).
While an age-related decline is inevitable, Cruz's skills hint that—at the very least—the fade will be soft. The raw power (PX, xPX) hints he can make another push towards 40 HR, while xBA says Cruz can overcome a shaky contact rate (ct%). Cruz leads the majors in HR over the last three seasons (127) and with an ADP outside the top 40, his age is driving an early-round discount. Draft without hesitation, as Cruz will pour plenty of concrete in that BA/HR foundation.
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Kimbrel still elite? ... Traditionally one of the most dominant relievers in the game, things took a wrong turn for Craig Kimbrel (RHP, BOS) in 2016. Kimbrel underwent knee surgery in July, and while he only missed three weeks, a 4.71 second-half ERA suggests he wasn't the same. Was Kimbrel's performance just a blip, or the start of a decline?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FB% hr/f FpK Ball% SwK Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === === ==== === ===== === ==== === 2013 67 1.21 2.12 2.7 13.2 4.9 29 10% 56% 35.7% 14% 96.9 189 2014 62 1.61 2.36 3.8 13.9 3.7 35 5% 58% 35.1% 17% 97.1 166 2015 59 2.58 2.61 3.3 13.2 4.0 34 14% 61% 36.9% 16% 97.3 171 2016 53 3.40 3.33 5.1 14.1 2.8 48 8% 68% 39.0% 15% 97.3 123 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16-2H 21 4.71 3.86 7.7 15.0 1.9 42 13% 65% 40.9% 14% 97.2 69
Likely just a blip—it might make Kimbrel available at a discount:
- Kimbrel's post-surgery collapse can be pinned on an awful 2H Ctl, which derailed his long-stable BPV and xERA. Ball% confirms he had trouble hitting water from the boat.
- But the electric swing-and-miss stuff is still there. Kimbrel maintained elite fastball velocity with a superb SwK—expect the Ks to keep coming in bunches.
- An unforeseen FB% spike opened up some HR risk. Kimbrel's never been a fly-ball pitcher, though, and his fastball/slider pitch mix remained steady in 2016.
Kimbrel's pre-injury skills were vintage (3.03 xERA, 160 BPV), so it's fair to wonder how much a torn meniscus affected his 2H disaster. Be careful not to knock Kimbrel too hard based on a 21-inning post-injury sample after years of dominance. His SwK/Dom combo remained elite and he's still on the right side of 30. Expect a rebound.
Gregorius posts career year... Once called a "young Derek Jeter" as a prospect, Didi Gregorius (SS, NYY) indeed had big shoes to fill when joining NYY in 2015. After a marginal debut, Gregorius enjoyed a career year in 2016 with 20 HR—more than double his previous career high—and a career-best .276 BA. Gravity is a powerful force, however. Will it pull Gregorius back down to earth?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == == === ==== === === ===== === 2013 357 .252 .241 9 82 77 29 81 87 6% 143 2% 7/ 0 56 2014 270 .226 .238 8 81 98 26 88 106 6% 136 5% 6/ 3 51 2015 525 .265 .252 6 84 83 30 68 65 6% 99 6% 9/ 5 33 2016 562 .276 .271 3 85 85 29 96 78 10% 120 7% 20/ 7 63
Gregorius has some staying power:
- While Gregorius' plate patience has declined, an excellent ct% supports 2015-16's BA. The gains haven't been h%-induced either, as xBA was right in line with its surface counterpart in 2016.
- xPX is skeptical of the hr/f spike, but Gregorius doesn't need even league-average power to reach 15-ish HR at power-friendly Yankee Stadium (+46% LHB HR).
- Gregorius has always had under-utilized speed. He was thrown out just once in 2016, and with a strong Spd baseline, we'd see a big SB spike if he ever got a green light.
Gregorius took an impressive step forward in 2016 and much of it was skill supported. xBA fully backed his BA gains, and while another 20 HR might be a stretch, NYY's short porch should prevent a full power outage. Freedom on the basepaths would unlock more upside for Gregorius, who has excellent raw speed. Worst case, expect a 2016 repeat with a few less HR.
Odorizzi a reliable cog ... After a major step forward in 2015, Jake Odorizzi (RHP, TAM) was able to post a similar encore with his second straight $13 season in 2016. Is there any growth left for Odorizzi, or is he stuck in the middle tier?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === === 2014 168 4.13 3.96 3.2 9.3 2.9 30/21/49 31/71 9% 61% 10% 90 2015 169 3.35 3.99 2.4 8.0 3.3 37/22/41 29/75 9% 60% 11% 92 2016 187 3.69 4.33 2.6 8.0 3.1 37/19/44 28/75 12% 58% 10% 88
Not much room for growth, but a high floor:
- For a couple years, Odorizzi paired a heavy FB% with fortunate hr/f; the latter of which ended in 2016. Our Statcast-based research recently confirmed that league-average hr/f is "still the best predictor" going forward, making Odorizzi's HR risk a legitimate concern.
- Dom and Ctl continued to be stable, though Odorizzi's mediocre FpK/SwK limits any legit shot at further gains.
- Odorizzi relies heavily on a two-pitch combo (four-seam, splitter), and while he fiddled with a slider as his top breaking pitch in 2016, its 6% SwK says it's not a reliable offering.
A stable Cmd/BPV combo makes Odorizzi a low-risk arm with a high floor, but it's hard to see how he gets much better from here. His FB% tilt opens up plenty of HR risk and lack of a reliable breaking pitch limits his ability to consistently miss bats. Odorizzi's 2015 ERA isn't coming back, but he's a stable mid-rotation cog in most formats.
Zunino packs post-hype pop ... So good, we recently named a plan named after him! Okay, maybe not so much—Mike Zunino (C, SEA) hit 12 HR with a .207 BA in just 164 AB in 2016. Does he offer anything valuable to fantasy owners?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== === === ==== == === 2013 173 .214 .212 8 72 27 43/19/39 84 108 10% 5 0 2014 438 .199 .226 4 64 25 34/17/49 170 143 16% 22 28 2015 350 .174 .182 6 62 24 33/17/50 100 121 10% 11 -33 2016 164 .207 .228 11 60 25 29/18/53 189 155 23% 12 44
Potentially elite power, but not much else:
- Zunino's hr/f more than doubled from 2015. While such a burst typically screams regression, it came with full support from PX and xPX. Zunino's elite FB% bodes well for an impressive HR total if...
- ...he can get on base enough to stay in the lineup. Holding 2016's small-sample bb% gains will be key given his meager xBA baseline.
- There's not much hope for further BA gains, as Zunino's h% has routinely sat well south of league average. He's produced plenty of whiffs (16% SwK) over the last three seasons.
Zunino was one of two catchers with a 180+ PX in 2016. The other? Gary Sánchez. The awful contact skills all but cement a Mendoza-level BA, but Zunino's extreme FB% should allow for his massive raw power to flourish. Zunino can make good on his "UP: 30 HR" speculation from this year's Baseball Forecaster with a full season of AB; just plan around the BA hole.
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