(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Cruz, Archer, Pearce, Danks, Nunez, Finch

Cruz unlikely to deliver a repeat performance…In the winter of 2013-14, Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) didn’t get the long-term deal he wanted; he settled for a one-year contract with Baltimore. After leading the majors in home run in 2014s, he got his wish, signing a 4-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners. What can we expect for an encore?

Year   AB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%  h%   G/L/F    HctX   PX  xPX  HR  hr/f
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ====  ===  ===  ==  ====
2010  399  .318  .299    9   80  35  37/18/45   123  170  149  22   15%
2011  475  .260  .263    6   76  29  41/16/43   118  162  144  29   19%
2012  585  .259  .242    8   76  30  41/18/41   129  141  151  24   13%
2013  413  .266  .264    8   74  30  42/17/41   120  162  154  27   21%
2014  613  .271  .285    8   77  29  42/17/41   119  173  131  40   20%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
14 1H 310  .281  .288    9   77  29  41/16/44   127  191  159  25   24%
14 2H 303  .261  .280    7   78  29  43/19/38   111  155  102  15   16%

Don’t expect a repeat from Cruz:

• Despite the HR barrage in 2014, there were signs of decline. While his PX rose, xPX dropped.
• The HR decrease in the second half wasn’t surprising. Cruz didn’t hit the ball as hard, high hr/f normalized, and xPX plummeted to league average.
• The move from Camden Yards (+7% RH HR) to Safeco Field (-7% RH HR) won’t do him any favors. While Cruz is a career .268/.328/.501 hitter, he’s at .234/.309/.440 in 184 AB at Safeco.

Cruz turns 35 this summer; combine that with the new home park and expected regression, and he’s unlikely to match 2014’s power numbers. He’s likely to be overvalued; don’t participate if the bidding gets spirited.

 

Archer progressing, but Ctl needs work… It’s tempting—a young (26) starter with a couple of years of major league experience, with strong Dom and improving ERA. Is Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) ready to take a step up and join the upper echelon of American league pitchers? He’s off to a good start this spring, and has been named the Opening Day starter for the Rays.

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  H%  S%  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  OPSvL   G/L/F    FpK  SwK
====  ===  ====  ====  ==  ==  ===  ===  ===  =====  ========  ===  ===
2011+ 147  4.36  4.74  33  73  4.9  6.9  1.4              
2012* 157  4.19  3.21  30  68  4.4  8.8  2.1   .915  44/18/38  62%  10%  
2013* 179  3.64  3.79  29  75  3.1  7.3  2.4   .801  47/19/34  58%   9% 
2014  173  3.33  3.68  31  75  3.3  8.0  2.4   .626  47/22/31  57%  10%
+ MLE
*Inc. MLE

Archer is definitely on the right track, but isn't quite there yet:

• On the bright side, with above-average SwK, his Dom is likely to remain high.
• Archer has also made great strides against left-handed hitters.
• He’s also becoming more dominant; while he posted a 43/35 PQS-DOM/DIS in 2013, he was at 56/13 in 2014.
• On the downside, he still walks too many batters.

Archer makes an intriguing target, particularly in keeper leagues. While he’s on track to become a top starter, there’s still work to do. Until he reduces his walks, don’t consider Archer an upper-tier option.

 

Pearce looking at regression…It was a rocky start to the 2014 season for Steve Pearce (1B/OF, BAL)—only seven April ABs before cut by the team in late April. However, he re-signed a couple of days later, and produced a career-changing year. Pearce will get regular at-bats as he attempts to help the Orioles repeat as AL East champs.

Year   AB   BA    xBA  OPSvR  bb%  ct%  h%   G/L/F    HR  PX   xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ==  ===  ===  ====
2010* 158  .264  .266  .583    13   76  34  44/20/36   2  121   85    0%
2011* 124  .203  .197  .437     5   75  25  43/15/43   3   73   98    3%
2012* 351  .247  .240  .657    10   77  29  38/17/45  13  117  128    7%
2013  119  .261  .243  .749    11   79  30  39/17/44   4  112  129   10%
2014  338  .293  .294  .856    11   78  32  35/19/46  21  188  130   18%
*- Inc. MLE

While Pearce should again produce, don’t expect continued growth:

• He’s definitely made progress; while h% was slightly elevated, xBA shows his skills improved.
• Pearce made big gains vs RHP, but some h% luck (33% vs. RHP) played a big part. 
• On the downside, the big boost in hr/f might not be sustainable.
• And while Pearce has above-average power, xPX—consistent for three straight years—says he’s unlikely to repeat his 2014 PX.

It’s nice to see a breakout from Pearce, but at 32, it’s unlikely to be a trend. While he’d like to continue the growth heading into free agency in 2016, it’s more likely that there will be some regression. Don’t get carried away bidding on Pearce.

 

Danks not justifying his cost...With $31.5 million due over the next two years, there’s little question that John Danks (LHP, CHW) will get a shot at a rotation spot for the White Sox. Do you want him anywhere near your staff?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  H%  S%  Ctl  Dom  Cmd   G/L/F    FpK  SwK  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ==  ==  ===  ===  ===  ========  ===  ===  ===
2010  213  3.72  3.95  28  71  3.0  6.8  2.3  45/16/39  60%   9%   66
2011  170  4.33  3.84  32  70  2.4  7.1  2.9  44/20/36  63%  10%   85
2012   54  5.70  5.23  29  63  3.9  5.0  1.3  41/22/37  56%   7%    5
2013* 161  4.71  5.06  29  71  2.4  5.6  2.3  41/22/37  62%   9%   30
2014  194  4.74  4.62  30  70  3.4  6.0  1.7  42/19/38  61%   8%   35
*inc. MLE

Despite some positive trends, there’s not much to get excited about here:

• Danks maintains a decent FpK, so his Ctl is likely to improve. But league-average SwK means don't expect Dom growth.
• After a couple of off years, he rebounded against lefties (.831 OPS in both 2012/2013; .710 in 2014).
• But xERA shows there’s not much promise here; 2010 was a long time ago.
• A 34/22 PQS-DOM/DIS in 2014 sums it up—not many dominant performances, a handful of disasters, and a whole bunch of mediocrity. BPV agrees.

Despite the fact that he’s likely to be in the rotation to justify his cost, that doesn’t mean you have to follow suit. There’s not enough here to justify rostering him; it’s best to ignore Danks even in deep leagues.

 

Poor bb% limits Nunez…It wasn’t that long ago that Eduardo Núñez (SS, MIN) was the crown prince of New York, waiting for King Jeter to retire so that he could take the throne of Yankee shortstop. Ah, the good old days—now, he’s just battling for a job in Minnesota.

Year    AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%   G/L/F    HctX  HR   PX  SB  Spd  SBO
====   ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ====  ==  ===  ==  ===  ===
2010*  514  .265  .247    6   87  65/ 6/29    96   5   57  25  138  22%
2011   309  .265  .274    7   88  45/21/34   108   5   80  22  130  35%
2012*  252  .229  .216    4   83  44/16/39    89   3   46  23  140  50%
2013   304  .260  .250    6   83  41/21/38    92   3   78  10  143  17%
2014*  253  .251  .265    3   83  56/16/27    80   5   78  10  153  25%
*- inc MLEs

Regular playing time is looking unlikely:

• Nunez doesn’t take many walks, resulting in an OBA that struggles to reach .300.
• He doesn’t hit the ball hard, and it’s mostly on the ground.
• Nunez has no power; few of his fly balls clear the fence.
• What he does bring to the table is elite speed. When he ran frequently—as in 2011/12—he generated enough SBs to be of interest.

The seeds of success are here, and since he doesn’t turn 28 until this summer, there’s still time to grow. But poor plate patience isn’t helping. Until Nunez can get on base more frequently, and he starts running more, he’s unlikely to produce enough to be relevant. Nunez is best relegated to flier status in deep leagues.

 

Finch trying to make history…Forget A-Rod – the feel-good story of the Yankees’ spring camp is the attempted comeback of Hayden “Sidd” Finch (RHP, NYY). The barefoot Finch and his 168-mph fastball was a media darling in the Mets’ camp way back in 1985, but he faded from the spotlight when he quit the sport to wander Tibet. Few know that he’s been pitching for the Lhasa Yeti of the Himalaya Baseball League (HBL) for the past 30 years, utterly dominating the Sherpas. Can the 58-year old Finch win the last spot in the NY rotation?

Year+   IP   ERA   xERA  H%   S%  Ctl   Dom  Cmd   G/L/F    SwK  hr/f
====   ===  ====  =====  ==  ===  ===  ====  ===  ========  ==== ====
2011   325  0.00  -0.50   0  100  0.0  28.3  inf  00/00/00  100%   0%
2012   274  0.10   0.20   1   99  0.0  28.1  inf  100/0/00   99%   0%
2013   290  0.25   0.30   3   98  0.1  28.1  281  50/00/50   95% 100%
2014   255  0.00   0.45   0  100  0.0  26.5  inf  00/00/00  100%   0%
+ HBL MLEs

While Finch ruled the HBL, it’s not clear how his skills will translate to sea level:

• For someone approaching 60, Finch can still bring it, as his SwK and Dom attest. He saws off plenty of bats, but it helps that the lack of sturdy Himalayan trees results in bats made of balsa wood.
• Finch is unlikely to repeat his dominant 2011 season (PQS-DOM/DIS 100/0), when batters made contact only once, resulting in a foul ball. Rising xERA is also a concern.
• He’s gotten lucky with his ERA; high S% helps. In New York, he won’t be helped by batters continually running the wrong way on the basepaths.
• It also helps that despite the 18,000 foot elevation, balls don’t often clear the fence in Finch’s home park of Lhasa Apso Stadium. Having 21,700 foot Peak Geladandong serving as the right-field wall doesn’t hurt.

Finch’s comeback attempt makes a nice story, but it’s unlikely to result in much. Owner Hal Steinbrenner notes Finch’s wanderlust and lack of commitment as reasons that he’s unlikely to make the cut next week. When asked about Finch’s chances of making the squad, manager Joe Girardi said, “Who? Is that the old barefoot guy wandering around with a French horn?”

He’s a power pitcher you’ll approach passively. Right; I’ll label Finch one obvious long shot! Don’t admonish yourself. (Wink.)

More From Facts & Flukes