(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Cruz, Archer, Pearce, Danks, Nunez, Finch
Mar 31 2015
Cruz unlikely to deliver a repeat performance…In the winter of 2013-14, Nelson Cruz (OF, SEA) didn’t get the long-term deal he wanted; he settled for a one-year contract with Baltimore. After leading the majors in home run in 2014s, he got his wish, signing a 4-year, $57 million deal with the Mariners. What can we expect for an encore?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% h% G/L/F HctX PX xPX HR hr/f ==== === ==== ==== === === == ======== ==== === === == ==== 2010 399 .318 .299 9 80 35 37/18/45 123 170 149 22 15% 2011 475 .260 .263 6 76 29 41/16/43 118 162 144 29 19% 2012 585 .259 .242 8 76 30 41/18/41 129 141 151 24 13% 2013 413 .266 .264 8 74 30 42/17/41 120 162 154 27 21% 2014 613 .271 .285 8 77 29 42/17/41 119 173 131 40 20% ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 1H 310 .281 .288 9 77 29 41/16/44 127 191 159 25 24% 14 2H 303 .261 .280 7 78 29 43/19/38 111 155 102 15 16%
Don’t expect a repeat from Cruz:
- Despite the HR barrage in 2014, there were signs of decline. While his PX rose, xPX dropped.
- The HR decrease in the second half wasn’t surprising. Cruz didn’t hit the ball as hard, high hr/f normalized, and xPX plummeted to league average.
- The move from Camden Yards (+7% RH HR) to Safeco Field (-7% RH HR) won’t do him any favors. While Cruz is a career .268/.328/.501 hitter, he’s at .234/.309/.440 in 184 AB at Safeco.
Cruz turns 35 this summer; combine that with the new home park and expected regression, and he’s unlikely to match 2014’s power numbers. He’s likely to be overvalued; don’t participate if the bidding gets spirited.
Archer progressing, but Ctl needs work… It’s tempting—a young (26) starter with a couple of years of major league experience, with strong Dom and improving ERA. Is Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) ready to take a step up and join the upper echelon of American league pitchers? He’s off to a good start this spring, and has been named the Opening Day starter for the Rays.
Year IP ERA xERA H% S% Ctl Dom Cmd OPSvL G/L/F FpK SwK ==== === ==== ==== == == === === === ===== ======== === === 2011+ 147 4.36 4.74 33 73 4.9 6.9 1.4 2012* 157 4.19 3.21 30 68 4.4 8.8 2.1 .915 44/18/38 62% 10% 2013* 179 3.64 3.79 29 75 3.1 7.3 2.4 .801 47/19/34 58% 9% 2014 173 3.33 3.68 31 75 3.3 8.0 2.4 .626 47/22/31 57% 10% + MLE *Inc. MLE
Archer is definitely on the right track, but isn't quite there yet:
- On the bright side, with above-average SwK, his Dom is likely to remain high.
- Archer has also made great strides against left-handed hitters.
- He’s also becoming more dominant; while he posted a 43/35 PQS-DOM/DIS in 2013, he was at 56/13 in 2014.
- On the downside, he still walks too many batters.
Archer makes an intriguing target, particularly in keeper leagues. While he’s on track to become a top starter, there’s still work to do. Until he reduces his walks, don’t consider Archer an upper-tier option.
Pearce looking at regression…It was a rocky start to the 2014 season for Steve Pearce (1B/OF, BAL)—only seven April ABs before cut by the team in late April. However, he re-signed a couple of days later, and produced a career-changing year. Pearce will get regular at-bats as he attempts to help the Orioles repeat as AL East champs.
Year AB BA xBA OPSvR bb% ct% h% G/L/F HR PX xPX hr/f ==== === ==== ==== ===== === === == ======== == === === ==== 2010* 158 .264 .266 .583 13 76 34 44/20/36 2 121 85 0% 2011* 124 .203 .197 .437 5 75 25 43/15/43 3 73 98 3% 2012* 351 .247 .240 .657 10 77 29 38/17/45 13 117 128 7% 2013 119 .261 .243 .749 11 79 30 39/17/44 4 112 129 10% 2014 338 .293 .294 .856 11 78 32 35/19/46 21 188 130 18% *- Inc. MLE
While Pearce should again produce, don’t expect continued growth:
- He’s definitely made progress; while h% was slightly elevated, xBA shows his skills improved.
- Pearce made big gains vs RHP, but some h% luck (33% vs. RHP) played a big part.
- On the downside, the big boost in hr/f might not be sustainable.
- And while Pearce has above-average power, xPX—consistent for three straight years—says he’s unlikely to repeat his 2014 PX.
It’s nice to see a breakout from Pearce, but at 32, it’s unlikely to be a trend. While he’d like to continue the growth heading into free agency in 2016, it’s more likely that there will be some regression. Don’t get carried away bidding on Pearce.
Danks not justifying his cost...With $31.5 million due over the next two years, there’s little question that John Danks (LHP, CHW) will get a shot at a rotation spot for the White Sox. Do you want him anywhere near your staff?
Year IP ERA xERA H% S% Ctl Dom Cmd G/L/F FpK SwK BPV ==== === ==== ==== == == === === === ======== === === === 2010 213 3.72 3.95 28 71 3.0 6.8 2.3 45/16/39 60% 9% 66 2011 170 4.33 3.84 32 70 2.4 7.1 2.9 44/20/36 63% 10% 85 2012 54 5.70 5.23 29 63 3.9 5.0 1.3 41/22/37 56% 7% 5 2013* 161 4.71 5.06 29 71 2.4 5.6 2.3 41/22/37 62% 9% 30 2014 194 4.74 4.62 30 70 3.4 6.0 1.7 42/19/38 61% 8% 35 *inc. MLE
Despite some positive trends, there’s not much to get excited about here:
- Danks maintains a decent FpK, so his Ctl is likely to improve. But league-average SwK means don't expect Dom growth.
- After a couple of off years, he rebounded against lefties (.831 OPS in both 2012/2013; .710 in 2014).
- But xERA shows there’s not much promise here; 2010 was a long time ago.
- A 34/22 PQS-DOM/DIS in 2014 sums it up—not many dominant performances, a handful of disasters, and a whole bunch of mediocrity. BPV agrees.
Despite the fact that he’s likely to be in the rotation to justify his cost, that doesn’t mean you have to follow suit. There’s not enough here to justify rostering him; it’s best to ignore Danks even in deep leagues.
Poor bb% limits Nunez…It wasn’t that long ago that Eduardo Núñez (SS, MIN) was the crown prince of New York, waiting for King Jeter to retire so that he could take the throne of Yankee shortstop. Ah, the good old days—now, he’s just battling for a job in Minnesota.
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F HctX HR PX SB Spd SBO ==== === ==== ==== === === ======== ==== == === == === === 2010* 514 .265 .247 6 87 65/ 6/29 96 5 57 25 138 22% 2011 309 .265 .274 7 88 45/21/34 108 5 80 22 130 35% 2012* 252 .229 .216 4 83 44/16/39 89 3 46 23 140 50% 2013 304 .260 .250 6 83 41/21/38 92 3 78 10 143 17% 2014* 253 .251 .265 3 83 56/16/27 80 5 78 10 153 25% *- inc MLEs
Regular playing time is looking unlikely:
- Nunez doesn’t take many walks, resulting in an OBA that struggles to reach .300.
- He doesn’t hit the ball hard, and it’s mostly on the ground.
- Nunez has no power; few of his fly balls clear the fence.
- What he does bring to the table is elite speed. When he ran frequently—as in 2011/12—he generated enough SBs to be of interest.
The seeds of success are here, and since he doesn’t turn 28 until this summer, there’s still time to grow. But poor plate patience isn’t helping. Until Nunez can get on base more frequently, and he starts running more, he’s unlikely to produce enough to be relevant. Nunez is best relegated to flier status in deep leagues.
Finch trying to make history…Forget A-Rod – the feel-good story of the Yankees’ spring camp is the attempted comeback of Hayden “Sidd” Finch (RHP, NYY). The barefoot Finch and his 168-mph fastball was a media darling in the Mets’ camp way back in 1985, but he faded from the spotlight when he quit the sport to wander Tibet. Few know that he’s been pitching for the Lhasa Yeti of the Himalaya Baseball League (HBL) for the past 30 years, utterly dominating the Sherpas. Can the 58-year old Finch win the last spot in the NY rotation?
Year+ IP ERA xERA H% S% Ctl Dom Cmd G/L/F SwK hr/f ==== === ==== ===== == === === ==== === ======== ==== ==== 2011 325 0.00 -0.50 0 100 0.0 28.3 inf 00/00/00 100% 0% 2012 274 0.10 0.20 1 99 0.0 28.1 inf 100/0/00 99% 0% 2013 290 0.25 0.30 3 98 0.1 28.1 281 50/00/50 95% 100% 2014 255 0.00 0.45 0 100 0.0 26.5 inf 00/00/00 100% 0% + HBL MLEs
While Finch ruled the HBL, it’s not clear how his skills will translate to sea level:
- For someone approaching 60, Finch can still bring it, as his SwK and Dom attest. He saws off plenty of bats, but it helps that the lack of sturdy Himalayan trees results in bats made of balsa wood.
- Finch is unlikely to repeat his dominant 2011 season (PQS-DOM/DIS 100/0), when batters made contact only once, resulting in a foul ball. Rising xERA is also a concern.
- He’s gotten lucky with his ERA; high S% helps. In New York, he won’t be helped by batters continually running the wrong way on the basepaths.
- It also helps that despite the 18,000 foot elevation, balls don’t often clear the fence in Finch’s home park of Lhasa Apso Stadium. Having 21,700 foot Peak Geladandong serving as the right-field wall doesn’t hurt.
Finch’s comeback attempt makes a nice story, but it’s unlikely to result in much. Owner Hal Steinbrenner notes Finch’s wanderlust and lack of commitment as reasons that he’s unlikely to make the cut next week. When asked about Finch’s chances of making the squad, manager Joe Girardi said, “Who? Is that the old barefoot guy wandering around with a French horn?”
He’s a power pitcher you’ll approach passively. Right; I’ll label Finch one obvious long shot! Don’t admonish yourself. (Wink.)
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