(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Cano, T. Walker, Beltran, S. Wright, R. Martin
Jun 6 2016
Cano cruising again... What a difference a year makes; particularly if you're Robinson Canó (2B, SEA). On June 30, 2015, Cano was stuck with a .248 BA and five HR over 314 AB through the season's first half. Since that point? Try .312 with 32 home runs in roughly a full season of AB (534). Cano played through a stomach ailment during that first half of 2015, but he's looked like himself again so far in 2016. Should we consider him among the 2B elite?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== == === 2012 627 .313 .324 9 85 141 33 49/26/26 145 115 24% 33 99 2013 605 .314 .312 10 86 137 33 44/26/30 128 115 17% 27 90 2014 595 .314 .301 9 89 109 34 53/23/25 95 82 11% 14 75 2015 624 .287 .285 6 83 118 32 50/24/25 100 107 16% 21 48 2016 224 .290 .313 7 86 124 28 44/17/39 154 111 21% 16 106
Absolutely—Cano's skills have been vintage this season:
- Cano's contact rate has rebounded to a more familiar level, while HctX suggests he's squaring up the ball with ease. xBA predicts Cano will flirt with .300 all year.
- Cano has seen a major boost in fly balls, and while that's likely dragged his h% to a career-low level, it's a tradeoff we can handle given his hr/f spike.
- That hr/f would be the second-highest of Cano's career, however, and with xPX just slightly above league average, we can't expect the HR pace to continue at such a rapid clip.
We've seen a slightly different version of Cano this season, as a new FB% swing—not yet seen in his career—has driven his considerable HR spike. His elite plate skills all but lock in another excellent BA, so while Cano's HR pace should slow a bit, everything else here looks legit. Cano has the goods to once again be considered among the elite 2B—and he's probably the best one taller than 5'6".
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Gauging Walker's rollercoaster season... Things looked rosy for Taijuan Walker (RHP, SEA) owners at the end of April, when he had a 1.44 ERA and 166 BPV through four starts. He's been a different pitcher since then, as Walker left his May 6 start (neck spasms) and has posted a 5.77 ERA over his last seven outings. While the injury would be a convenient explanation for Walker's recent struggles, are there other reasons for the early-season inconsistency?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Ball% Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === ===== ==== === 2015 169 4.56 3.78 2.1 8.3 3.9 39/22/39 30/66 13% 63% 11% 34.4% 94.3 110 2016 59 3.94 3.83 2.3 7.9 3.5 46/20/34 29/77 19% 59% 9% 35.4% 94.0 105
Walker's not quite there yet:
- Despite having a mid-90s heater, Walker hasn't been able to regularly miss bats. The culprit? His secondary pitches—neither his splitter, curve, nor cutter have produced an 11%+ swinging-strike rate (SwK) this season.
- Walker's ability to consistently throw strikes suggests his solid Ctl is here to stay, though bouts with gopheritis throughout his young career suggest he's grabbing too much of the plate.
- Despite the wild month-to-month production from Walker, xERA indicates he's more or less pitching to his skill level.
Walker, just 23, has already flashed signs that led to a 9A prospect rating with #1 starter upside in our July 2014 call-up report. A breakout doesn't appear imminent, however, until Walker can pair his electric fastball with a secondary pitch that produces whiffs. Walker remains a premium long-term stock and already has a sub-4.00 ERA floor, but owners in redraft leagues should expect some more highs and lows in 2016.
Beltran an oldie but goodie ... After a subpar 2014 and slow start to 2015, the easy thing to do with Carlos Beltrán (OF, NYY) was to call him washed up. But Beltran, 39, surged in the second half of 2015 (94 BPV), and he's carried that momentum into 2016 with a .269 BA and 13 HR. Can Beltran pull together another solid season before he hits 40?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== == === 2012 547 .269 .274 11 77 115 29 42/20/38 142 124 20% 32 68 2013 554 .296 .282 6 84 129 32 35/24/41 122 127 13% 24 76 2014 403 .233 .258 8 80 105 26 44/16/39 120 101 12% 15 58 2015 478 .276 .275 9 82 120 30 36/22/43 125 132 11% 19 72 2016 197 .269 .283 4 79 118 28 39/18/42 155 128 19% 13 72
The skills offer a resounding "yes":
- We're seeing some early erosion in Beltran's plate skills, but xBA still suggests that Beltran can rack up hits at a decent clip.
- His hr/f has nearly doubled compared to recent seasons. At this point in Beltran's career, we can't expect that to hold, but PX and xPX still maintain there's plenty of pop in his bat.
- Beltran's BPV history is as consistent as they come, and though he's recently dealt with oblique and elbow injuries, he's managed to put up semi-consistent AB totals.
Some slippage in Beltran's plate skills and a noticeable xPX/PX gap suggest his current clip is probably a best-case scenario going forward. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as Beltran's xBA and power metrics are in great shape, so there's a low floor as long as he's in the lineup. Expect Beltran to maintain his current BA, and there's an increasingly likely shot he'll crack 30 HR. Not bad for a soon-to-be 40-year-old.
Wright's knuckler working wonders ... There's a knuckleballer back in Boston! In the shadows of Tim Wakefield, Steven Wright (RHP, BOS) has emerged from nowhere to put up a 2.29 ERA through his first 11 starts. Are we in line for another R.A Dickey-type breakout, or is this an early-season fluke?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Ball% BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === ======== ===== ==== === === ===== === 2015 72 4.09 4.75 3.3 6.4 1.9 43/14/43 26/74 12% 55% 9% 36.3% 47 2016 75 2.29 4.02 3.7 7.7 2.1 43/21/36 25/80 4% 59% 12% 36.4% 59
We're leaning much more towards the latter:
- Wright has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune early on, as H%, S%, and hr/f are all in extremely favorable territory. Don't expect that to last all year.
- Ctl suggests Wright's having some issues controlling the knuckler, which has sent Cmd well below our threshold for breakout SP targets.
- xERA and BPV both indicate that Wright's early-season dominance will be short-lived.
Knuckleballers like Wright are a rare breed, and while many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills simply don't support this type of success going forward. Wright has benefited more from good fortune than actual skill growth, as a nearly two-run gap between ERA and xERA indicates a swift correction is coming. Owners dreaming of another R.A. Dickey circa 2012 will be disappointed the rest of the way.
What's behind Martin's collapse? ... Coming off a career-high 23-HR season, Russell Martin (C, TOR) was being drafted among the top catchers entering 2016. Those who chose Martin have received next to nothing in return, as he's posted a sub-Mendoza BA with just three HR in 150+ AB. Is there any hope Martin can salvage his season?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f HR BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== == === 2013 438 .226 .244 12 75 108 27 51/17/33 108 104 14% 15 32 2014 379 .290 .255 13 79 109 34 49/19/32 102 92 11% 11 50 2015 441 .240 .272 11 76 97 27 51/16/33 140 113 21% 23 66 2016 154 .195 .191 7 66 96 27 44/23/33 49 119 9% 3 -62
You'd have to look real hard to find hope:
- Martin's plate approach has gone awry, as bb% and ct% have both plummeted. A major increase in swinging strikes (13% SwK in 2016; 8% career) tells us Martin is producing plenty of whiffs.
- As a result, Martin's xBA has fallen to scary depths. His h% is on par with previous seasons, so it's clear that Martin has deserved the awful BA.
- The only silver lining we can find is that major gap between PX and xPX. Martin is still hitting the ball hard, so expect the power to be first to rebound.
There's no getting around the fact that Martin's season has been a disaster—both above and below the surface. His xBA and BPV are among the worst you'll see in the game at this juncture, while the swing-and-miss in Martin's game offers little hope for a full recovery. Our hard-hit metrics indicate that Martin's power is still there, so a HR boost should be forthcoming, but the damage has been done.
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