(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Braun, Nova, A. Cabrera, R. Iglesias, Drury
Feb 25 2017
Is Braun “back”? … After enjoying a rebound season in 2015, Ryan Braun (OF, MIL) took his game up another notch in 2016. The 33-year-old batted .305 with 30 HR and 16 SB, surpassing both the 25 HR and .300 BA plateaus for the first time since 2012. What was behind the resurgence?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% GB/LD/FB h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2012 598 41/30 .319 .296 10 79 44/18/38 35 127 170 153 23% 107 21% 2013 225 9/ 4 .298 .268 11 75 52/16/32 36 120 142 150 16% 118 13% 2014 530 19/11 .266 .277 7 79 47/20/33 31 115 130 125 14% 114 13% 2015 506 25/24 .285 .282 10 77 50/19/31 33 123 136 140 20% 105 20% 2016 511 30/16 .305 .303 8 81 56/19/25 33 113 127 97 29% 104 14% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 16-1H 262 13/ 6 .328 .305 7 83 55/20/25 36 111 122 95 24% 97 12% 16-2H 249 17/10 .281 .299 9 78 56/19/25 30 115 133 99 35% 112 17%
This remains a fine skill set, but there has been some slippage:
- Career lows in xPX and FB% were masked by an unsustainable hr/f (check out the crazy 2H hr/f). He’ll have an extremely difficult time matching that HR output without more flyballs.
- Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t able to duplicate his 2015 SB prowess, as his SBO slid back toward 2013-14. Given his age and already merely average speed, a return to 20+ SB is unlikely.
- He posted his best BA, xBA and ct% since 2011, but it’s worth noting that his ct% and BA fell off a bit in the 2H.
Braun should continue to be a valuable asset, as he is certainly capable of multi-category production. However, it wouldn’t be wise to anticipate a rerun of 2016. He’s far more likely to produce a line similar to 2015, but with something closer to 15 SB, so be careful not to overpay.
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Nova makes adjustments … Iván Nova (RHP, PIT) had struggled to find his footing following April 2014 Tommy John surgery, but the 2016 trade deadline deal that sent him to the Pirates changed that. After posting a 4.90 ERA in 97.1 IP with the Yankees over the first four months of 2016, he thrived with his new team, amassing a 3.06 ERA in 64.2 IP. Is there reason to believe Nova has turned the corner?
Year IP ERA xERA H%/S% GB/LD/FB Ctl Dom Cmd Ball% FpK SwK hr/9 hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== ===== ======== === === ==== ===== === === ==== ==== === 2012 170 5.02 3.95 34/70 45/22/32 3.0 8.1 2.7 36.8% 58% 9% 1.5 17% 89 2013 139 3.10 3.45 31/77 54/20/26 2.8 7.5 2.6 37.4% 54% 10% 0.6 8% 90 2014 21 8.27 4.53 36/59 49/20/31 2.6 5.2 2.0 34.4% 64% 5% 2.6 26% 51 2015 94 5.07 4.50 30/66 49/19/32 3.2 6.0 1.9 37.4% 55% 8% 1.2 13% 50 2016 162 4.17 3.91 32/71 54/19/28 1.6 7.1 4.5 34.1% 62% 10% 1.3 16% 117 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16-Aug 31 2.87 3.44 29/75 48/22/30 0.3 6.3 22.0 29.8% 69% 9% 0.9 11% 132 16-Sep 33 3.24 3.12 37/72 57/20/23 0.5 8.1 15.0 29.4% 65% 11% 0.3 4% 166
A change in approach was a driving force behind the improved performance:
- Nova, at the urging of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, pounded the zone and did a much better job of getting ahead in the count over the final two months of 2016. Note the stark contrast in Ball%, FpK and Ctl compared to his past marks.
- Overall, his sinker usage increased by 6% over 2015 at the expense of his four-seam fastball. That led to even more groundballs.
- Home runs have plagued him in recent years, but keeping the ball on the ground should help mitigate that. The move from an extremely hitter-friendly home to a pitcher-friendly one should also prove very beneficial (Yankee Stadium: +46% LHB HR, +25% RHB HR; PNC Park: neutral LHB HR; -24% RHB HR).
- While Nova isn’t likely to post huge strikeout numbers, SwK suggests a little additional Dom upside.
- The skills upgrades nearly across the board resulted in a career best BPV.
Nova’s struggles since 2013 and pedestrian 2016 surface stats will likely have him off the fantasy radar for many. However, his modifications, above average skills (see BPV), and move to the NL and a much more advantageous home park make him a supremely intriguing option. If the 30-year-old carries those late-2016 gains into 2017, a sub-3.50 ERA could be within reach.
Can Cabrera repeat? … Asdrúbal Cabrera (SS, NYM) had been a solid performer since his career year of 2011, but nothing foretold the sudden power outburst he displayed in 2016. After averaging 15 HR per season from 2012-15, he was able to slug 23 HR—two shy of his career best—while also maintaining a .280 BA. What was behind the surge?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% GB/LD/FB h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2012 555 16/ 9 .270 .269 9 82 41/23/36 30 117 101 105 10% 67 9% 2013 508 14/ 9 .242 .256 6 78 36/23/41 29 108 118 139 9% 93 11% 2014 553 14/10 .241 .250 8 80 38/19/42 28 118 105 127 8% 107 9% 2015 505 15/ 6 .265 .248 7 79 36/21/44 31 92 107 107 9% 100 7% 2016 521 23/ 5 .280 .273 7 80 37/23/40 31 119 114 142 14% 93 5%
This is a sturdy skill set:
- Cabrera’s xPX has never been better. Though his 2016 hr/f exceeded his customary level, it is in line with what we’d expect from that xPX.
- He also hit plenty of flyballs to take advantage of the power. It’s also worth noting that 20 of his 23 HR came vs. RHP—far and away his best mark in that category since 2011 when 19 of his 25 HR were vs. RHP.
- An improved BA was backed by xBA and the best HctX and HH% of his career (37% HH%).
- He had been a threat for double-digit SB, but leg injuries (2015: strained right hamstring; 2016: strained left patellar tendon) have plagued him at times during the past two seasons. With better health, we can’t rule out another 8-10 SB campaign.
Cabrera’s HR barrage was a bit surprising, but it came with skill support. The problematic left knee didn’t require offseason surgery, and it’s worth noting that September was arguably his best month as he tallied 6 HR and 3 of his 5 SB. The 31-year-old’s high floor and 25 HR/8-10 SB upside make him a fine investment.
Iglesias possesses exciting upside … Raisel Iglesias (RHP, CIN) began 2016 as a starter, making five starts before hitting the disabled list with a right shoulder impingement. Though he fared well as a starter, he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen upon his late-June return (SP: 3.49 ERA in 28.1 IP; RP: 1.98 ERA in 50 IP). What’s in store for 2017?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd Ball% FpK SwK GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f Vel OPSvR ==== === ==== ==== === === === ===== === === ======== ===== ==== === ===== 2015* 124 4.26 3.78 2.7 8.8 3.3 34.2% 62% 13% 47/21/32 30/69 14% 91 .618 2016 78 2.53 3.77 3.0 9.5 3.2 37.6% 54% 12% 41/21/38 29/82 9% 93 .483 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16-1H 36 3.03 4.05 2.5 9.1 3.6 37.6% 46% 10% 36/23/41 33/83 12% 91 .679 16-2H 43 2.11 3.52 3.4 9.9 2.9 37.6% 60% 14% 45/19/36 25/80 5% 95 .343 *Includes MLEs
These skills are enticing:
- The ability to miss bats has been present in either role, but SwK% and Dom surged out of the bullpen. As with most pitchers who transition from starting to relieving, he welcomed a velocity boost (4 mph).
- Iglesias also altered his pitch mix once he moved to the pen, scaling back his sinker usage by 20% in favor of more four-seam fastballs, sliders and change-ups (up 11%, 6% and 3%, respectively). The slider, which generated an impressive 17% SwK, was thrown a whopping 36% of the time in his relief outings and played a major role in his dominance against right-handed batters.
- His Ctl fluctuated wildly at times, but wound up roughly average. Ball% and the 2H FpK gains give some reason for cautious optimism.
- Though his BPV was strong, he did benefit from good H%/S% fortune, particularly in the 2H, as xERA indicates.
Though it would be tempting to utilize Iglesias as a starter, the Reds have opted to leave him in the bullpen. Given his injury history, that’s probably for the best (“D” health grade in the 2017 Baseball Forecaster). The immensely talented 27-year-old should provide plenty of value even if he’s not the sole closer in Cincinnati, as he could post a near-3.00 ERA with boatloads of strikeouts, provided he can stay healthy.
Could Drury take another step forward in 2017? … A great spring earned Brandon Drury (2B/3B/OF, ARI) a spot on the 2016 Opening Day roster. The 24-year-old went through his share of ups and downs, but ended up producing a .282 BA and 16 HR in 461 AB. How are his underlying skills?
Year AB BA xBA bb% ct% HctX h% GB/LD/FB PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO HR/SB ===== === ==== ==== === === ==== == ======== === === ==== === === ===== 14-AA 105 .272 -- 5 80 -- 31 --- 119 - -- 87 0% 3/0 2015* 580 .260 .267 4 84 106 30 56/21/23 75 109 18% 77 9% 6/3 2016 461 .282 .271 6 78 105 33 50/20/30 111 97 15% 105 2% 16/1 *Includes MLEs
This is an intriguing skill set, but it needs more polish:
- Drury does a solid job of making contact and his BA is supported by xBA. He also makes a fair amount of hard contact, as evidenced by HctX and a 33% HH%.
- A high GB%/low FB% stifles his power. Though xPX is roughly average, he typically packs a wallop when he is able to lift the ball (average FB distance of 321 feet), so adding more lift should unlock more HR.
- He has decent speed, but has only attempted to steal twice in 517 AB in MLB. That hesitance to run might be due to his ineffectiveness on the basepaths (2015: 36% SB% in 11 attempts in minors; 2016: 50% SB%).
Drury spent most of 2016 in the outfield—a position he’d never played before—so that must also be considered when assessing his performance. It’s tough enough for young hitters to get acclimated to MLB without the added burden of learning an entirely new position, but Drury’s ability to make adjustments at the plate after a rough mid-season stretch was a very positive sign (Sept./Oct: .357 BA, 6 HR and 1.049 OPS in 98 AB). There is profit potential here, and the multi-position eligibility is an added bonus.
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