(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Belt, Parra, Molina, Niese, Matz
Apr 7 2016
Health the only question for Belt ... Following an injury-riddled 2014 season, Brandon Belt (1B, SF) was both healthy and productive in 2015 before suffering another concussion in a September collision. So what's in store for 2016?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd SBO SB% ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== === === === 2012 411 7/12 .275 .247 12 74 38/26/37 36 95 107/112 6% 110 11% 86% 2013 509 17/5 .289 .266 9 75 34/24/41 35 115 143/130 11% 104 5% 71% 2014 214 12/3 .243 .244 8 70 38/18/44 29 90 152/119 18% 108 8% 75% 2015 492 18/9 .280 .257 10 70 33/29/38 37 122 145/156 14% 96 9% 75%
There's a lot to like in Belt's skill set:
- He strikes out quite a bit, but other than the small sample 2014 season, he's been a line drive machine, which has led to inflated hit rates and a solid batting average. It's likely he'll continue to be an asset in that category.
- His power metrics have been very strong the past few seasons, and if he can stay healthy in 2016, he could crack 20 home runs for the first time in his career.
- He possesses decent speed, gets on base a lot, and both his SBO and SB% are typically around league average. Add it all up, and he should get at least a handful of steals, with double digits in that category well within reach.
Health has long been an issue with Belt, and the three concussions he's suffered during the past two seasons are cause for some concern. There's no denying that his BPIs are very strong, though. A high number of strikeouts is his lone weakness, but his line drive stroke makes up for it, and he offers healthy doses of power and speed as well. If Belt can just stay on the field, he looks primed for a very big year.
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Count on Parra for across the board production ... Gerardo Parra (OF, COL) was in the midst of a career year with Milwaukee in 2015, but hit just .237/.268/.357 in 238 plate appearances after he was dealt to Baltimore at the trade deadline. The end result was still quite valuable, but are the late struggles cause for concern, or are they outweighed by the Coors factor?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd SBO SB% ==== === ===== ==== ==== === == ======== == ==== ======== ==== === === === 2011 445 8/15 .292 .272 9 82 50/22/28 34 102 88/84 8% 131 12% 94% 2012 385 7/15 .273 .267 8 80 53/22/24 33 108 83/101 9% 102 22% 63% 2013 601 10/10 .268 .283 7 83 55/20/25 31 111 97/97 8% 101 13% 50% 2014 529 9/9 .261 .266 6 81 54/22/24 31 96 76/85 9% 107 12% 56% 2015 547 14/14 .291 .287 5 83 47/24/29 33 106 104/96 11% 115 14% 78%
Parra should be just fine:
- Both his contact rate and line drive rate are typically a little above average, and he'll now benefit from playing half his games at Coors Field, which reduces strikeouts and increases batting average more than any park in the game. It wouldn't be surprising if he hit above .300 this season.
- He doesn't hit the ball in the air all that often, so there's not much room for improvement in the home run department. However, he stands a strong chance of reaching double digits, and his new home park gives him a shot at a repeat.
- His speed grades out as slightly above average, but his success rate on the bases from 2012-14 was extremely low. He was much better in 2015, and even through his struggles, maintained a high SBO, so he should notch double digit steals again in 2016.
Parra faded down the stretch in 2015, but the overall picture paints a very well-rounded skill set. His new home park should help ease any concerns and help him maintain a high batting average, while he remains a good bet to reach double digits in home runs and stolen bases again. The end result for Parra's 2016 season may closely resemble his 2015 campaign, which will have plenty of value in all formats.
Rebound looks unlikely for Molina ... Yadier Molina (C, STL) didn't show any pop in 2015, and since first injuring his thumb in July of 2014, has put up a .270/.307/.345 line across 589 at-bats. After undergoing multiple surgeries on the thumb during the off-season, is there any hope for a rebound?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2011 475 14/4 .305 .291 6 91 45/20/35 31 115 101 101 9% 66 7% 2012 505 22/12 .315 .300 8 89 40/25/35 32 124 107 112 14% 71 10% 2013 505 12/3 .319 .301 6 89 42/24/34 34 126 109 111 8% 67 4% 2014 404 7/1 .282 .271 6 86 51/23/27 31 115 75 95 7% 64 2% 2015 488 4/3 .270 .254 6 88 48/20/32 30 98 54 79 3% 67 3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2H 15 217 2/3 .244 .251 6 89 49/19/32 27 92 46 69 3% 79 5%
Molina's power has been sapped:
- He still puts the ball in play at a very high rate, and is likely to be an asset in the batting average category. However, there's no guarantee, as shown by his second half numbers, when his line drive rate, hit rate, and power metrics all bottomed out.
- Some late developing power led to double digit homers every year from 2011 to 2013. His power has since fallen off considerably, though, and given his ongoing thumb issues, it's probably not coming back.
- He's never been a fast runner, but he's a smart one, which led to eight steals per season from 2009-2012. He's not running very much anymore, though, and shouldn't be counted on to contribute in that category.
In addition to being the premier defensive catcher in the game, Molina had an extended run as one of the top offensive performers at the position as well. However, health issues and the aging curve have sent his numbers tumbling since the latter part of the 2014 season. Having undergone two procedures on his thumb over the winter, it's reasonable to think that he' may not get the power stroke back. That means an empty batting average may be all Molina has to offer going forward.
Niese needs to reclaim lost Dom ... Jon Niese (LHP, PIT) got off to a nice start in 2015, but stumbled late in the year, as his ERA rose above 4.00 for the first time since 2011. Can he get back on track in Pittsburgh?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f Vel BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== ==== === 2011 157 4.40 3.49 2.5 7.9 3.1 59% 9% 51/21/28 35 70 10% 90.6 103 2012 190 3.40 3.70 2.3 7.3 3.2 63% 8% 48/21/31 28 75 13% 90.4 95 2013 143 3.71 3.93 3.0 6.6 2.2 61% 8% 52/21/27 33 75 8% 90.2 67 2014 188 3.40 3.68 2.2 6.6 3.1 63% 8% 48/23/30 31 76 10% 88.5 87 2015 177 4.13 4.18 2.8 5.8 2.1 62% 6% 55/21/25 31 73 14% 89.1 60 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2H 15 87 4.36 4.11 2.5 5.2 2.1 65% 6% 56/19/25 29 69 14% 89.4 60
The drop in whiffs is a little concerning:
- Niese's Dom slipped a bit in the first half (6.3), but he really struggled to generate swings and misses during the second half of the season. His previous track record indicates he should rebound in that area, and he'll need to if he's going to be successful.
- He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground, but was hurt by an inflated home run per fly ball rate in 2015. His new home park, which reduces right-handed home runs more than any other park in the league, should help fix that problem.
- He doesn't get himself into too much trouble with walks, and a slightly above average first pitch strike rate indicates that should continue to be the case.
After serving as a solid, back-of-the-rotation option for three straight years, Niese's skills took a turn for the worse in 2015, and both his Dom and swinging strike rate fell to dangerous territory during the second half. But his velocity was higher than it had been over the past season and a half, and his 7.1 career Dom in 987 previous innings provides hope that he'll recover some of the losses. Niese's ability to induce ground balls still keeps him on our radar, and more swings and misses could make him relevant again. Don't count on a return to his 2014 level, but it's too soon to dismiss him.
Matz on the rise ... After dominating minor league hitters during the first half of 2015, Steven Matz (LHP, NYM) was called up to the majors in late June. The transition was smooth, as he struck out 14 batters and allowed only two runs over his first two starts before landing on the disabled list with a lat strain. He was impressive enough upon his return in September that he was trusted to make three post-season starts. Is he ready to make a significant impact in 2016?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2014* 71 2.25 2.97 1.6 7.6 4.7 N/A N/A N/A 32 81 N/A 137 2015# 137 2.15 2.78 2.7 8.0 2.9 62% 9% 46/21/34 28 84 12% 100 *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Everything looks good so far:
- Matz struck out just over a batter per inning during his minor league career, and had a Dom of 8.6 during his brief big league stint. He'll have a hard time keeping it at that level, but should be a nice source of strikeouts right away.
- He's never had much of an issue with walks, and both his first pitch strike rate and Ctl (2.5) have translated well so far.
- His ground ball tilt has led to a 0.3 hr/9 during his time in the minors, and should help him keep the ball in the park pretty well.
Matz entered last season ranked number 66 in the HQ100, and didn't disappoint, earning himself the number 10 spot in the 2016 HQ100. He flashed impressive skills in the upper minors, as well as the majors, demonstrating he's capable of making an impact right away. Matz will likely be on some sort of innings limit this year, but has immediate sub-3.00 ERA upside, and a very exciting future ahead of him.
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