(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Arenado, K. Johnson, Revere, C. Martinez, Niese
Jul 16 2015
Arenado reaches star status ... Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) had a breakout of sorts in 2014, but it was interrupted by a couple of injuries along the way. There's nothing slowing him down in 2015, and the numbers are supported by some outstanding skills.
Year AB HR BA xBA OPSvR bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ===== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2012* 516 13 .289 N/A N/A 6 89 N/A 31 N/A 95 N/A N/A 2013# 552 12 .273 .284 .652 5 85 43/24/34 30 101 103 103 7% 2014 432 18 .287 .300 .776 5 87 38/21/42 30 127 142 134 11% 2015 328 24 .293 .317 .967 5 85 36/18/46 28 132 177 153 18% *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Arenado's power surge has been rather impressive:
- His power numbers jumped significantly last season, and have taken another huge step up in 2015. His fly ball distance has increased, and as a result, more of them are leaving the park.
- Strangely enough, he's hit 15 of his 24 home runs on the road this year, after hitting only two outside of Coors Field in 2014. He'll slow down some, but it's encouraging to see that the power will play anywhere.
- Speaking of splits, Arenado more than held his own against right-handers last year, but had more success against lefties. This year, it's a different story, as he's hit .298/.326/.641 against same-handed pitching, with 22 of his home runs coming against them.
- He doesn't strike out often, hits the ball with authority, and plays in Colorado, so a high batting average is pretty much a given. His home park increases right-handed batting average by 24 percent, so don't be surprised if his hit rate improves, and he ends up with a .300-plus average.
Arenado's skills were trending in the right direction heading into the year, and he's shown significant growth during his age 24 season. He could stand to draw a few more walks, but every other part of his game looks rock solid. He should continue to provide strong power numbers, along with a high batting average, all while playing elite defense at third base. Arenado has emerged as one of the top young players in the game, and should remain in that group for the foreseeable future.
Johnson finds power stroke again ... Kelly Johnson (3B, ATL) has had a solid bounceback season, and went into the break on a hot streak, having gone 10 for his last 27, with three of those hits leaving the park. Should we expect his success to continue?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === === 2011 545 21/16 .222 .245 10 70 39/20/40 28 106 141 156 14% 115 17% 2012 507 16/14 .225 .226 11 69 45/21/34 30 94 102 113 14% 93 12% 2013 366 16/7 .235 .227 9 73 39/15/46 28 85 119 116 13% 107 12% 2014 265 7/2 .215 .252 10 73 49/21/30 27 81 114 77 12% 93 6% 2015 171 9/0 .275 .261 7 78 37/25/39 31 114 110 138 17% 92 2%
The BPIs look strong, though the batting average sticks out as perhaps a small sample fluke:
- His hard contact rate had been on the decline, but that, along with xPX, have rebounded nicely so far in 2015. Given his recent history and age, he'll probably give some of the gains back, but he consistently puts up elevated home run per fly ball rates, and should be a decent power source in the second half.
- After compiling a .225 batting average during the previous four seasons, he's been a pleasant surprise in that category this year, and xBA isn't far behind. Both his contact and line drive rates are well above his recent levels, though, and the contact rate is just 72 percent since June 11, a span of 86 at-bats. Therefore, don't expect him to keep his average at it's current level.
- He used to provide value with his legs as well, but now has below average speed, and his SBO has dropped off quickly. At 33 years of age, there's little hope for any type of rebound in that phase of his game.
Johnson had a disappointing 2014 season, when he hit .244 with six home runs in 119 at-bats at Yankee Stadium, but just .192/.280/.308 in 146 at-bats elsewhere. So far this year, he's showing he can still be effective as the strong half of a platoon, as he's once again displaying solid power. Johnson took advantage of a heavy dose of right-handers in hitters' parks (Milwaukee and Colorado) during the week leading up to the All-Star break, proving he can be plenty useful in the right spots. He shouldn't be expected to maintain his current batting average, and won't be an everyday player, but with multi-positional eligibility and plus power, he can still provide some value.
Revere steady as ever ... The 2015 season started off poorly for Ben Revere (OF, PHI), but after batting .367/.404/.461 over his last 136 plate appearances, his numbers are back up to their typical level. What can we expect the rest of the way?
Year AB SB BA xBA OBP bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX Spd SBO SB% ==== === == ==== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== == === === === 2012* 605 45 .294 .278 .330 5 90 67/19/15 33 73 26 161 30% 80% 2013 315 22 .305 .277 .338 5 89 59/23/17 34 87 32 155 30% 73% 2014 601 49 .306 .293 .325 2 92 65/21/14 33 64 33 175 33% 86% 2015 330 21 .297 .304 .337 5 90 56/27/17 33 62 49 164 27% 81% *Includes MLEs
Despite the ups and downs this year, Revere's skill set is very consistent, and provides plenty of value:
- An elite contact rate, and an approach that involves keeping the ball out of the air, leads to a high batting average annually. His current xBA is the highest of his career thanks to an uptick in line drives, but there's no reason to expect his year-end batting average to be far off the marks of the past few seasons.
- He could stand to draw a few more walks, as getting on base is the name of the game for speedsters like Revere. He still gets on at a decent rate, though, so his spot near the top of the lineup (at least while he's in Philadelphia) is fairly secure, and the stolen base opportunities should continue to pile up.
- He's running slightly less than usual this year, but is still getting the green light, and his speed skills remain intact. He could make another run at 40 steals, assuming the recent hamstring soreness isn't an ongoing issue for him.
Revere underwent ankle surgery in October, but that hasn't seemed to have any effect on his speed this season. He has rebounded from a slow start to get his numbers back up to their usual level, which includes both a high batting average and stolen base total. Revere's name has been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors recently, which could potentially affect his value, particularly if he's traded to the American League. But it's pretty clear that he'll continue to produce at a high level, with plenty of hits and stolen bases.
Martinez thriving as starter ... The stuff of Carlos Martínez (RHP, STL) has never been a question, but the organization has handled him carefully the past couple of seasons, keeping his workload down. Handed a starting job this year, he has excelled, and earned himself a spot on the National League All-Star team. Can he keep it up?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2012* 71 3.05 3.32 2.6 6.3 2.4 N/A N/A N//A 29 77 N/A 74 2013# 108 3.16 3.09 2.9 7.1 2.4 62% 10% 52/19/29 30 74 4% 88 2014 89 4.03 3.54 3.6 8.5 2.3 58% 14% 51/22/27 34 70 6% 83 2015 107 2.52 3.08 3.6 9.5 2.6 64% 11% 56/19/25 29 83 15% 107 *MLEs #Includes MLEs
Longer outings haven't had a negative impact on Martinez's skills:
- His Dom continues to rise, though not surprisingly, he's getting fewer swings and misses than he did in a relief role. He may not keep striking out more than a batter per inning, but will still be a nice strikeout source.
- Once again, he's doing an excellent job of keeping the ball down. He had some issues with the long ball early on, allowing seven in his first eight starts. But he has given up just three in 10 starts since, and it's not likely to be a concern going forward.
- He gives up his fair share of walks, but has shown noticeable gains in his first pitch strike rate. Improvement in his Ctl is entirely possible, and may have already started, with 12 walks over 40 innings in his last six starts (2.7 Ctl).
Martinez was known to have considerable upside entering 2015, but he also carried a fair amount of risk. He had fared better out of the bullpen than in his seven starts a season ago, and there was some concern that he'd be exposed against left-handers, against whom he had a 0.9 Cmd and allowed a .297/.387/.462 batting line to last year. But he's held his own against lefties (2.0 Cmd, .227/.321/.405), and handled the increased workload quite well. Martinez will presumably have his innings limited, meaning he may have some shorter starts or additional rest when it's convenient, but expect continued dominance when he's on the mound.
More ground balls, fewer strikeouts, similar results for Niese ... After a slow start to the season, Jon Niese (LHP, NYM) has turned things around, with a 2.64 ERA and six PQS-DOM outings in his last seven starts, albeit with a 2.0 Cmd. So what does the overall picture look like?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% Vel hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ========= == == ==== ==== === 2011 157 4.40 3.49 2.5 7.9 3.1 59% 9% 51/21/28 35 70 90.6 10% 103 2012 190 3.40 3.70 2.3 7.3 3.2 63% 8% 48/21/31 28 75 90.4 13% 95 2013 143 3.71 3.93 3.0 6.6 2.2 61% 8% 52/21/27 33 75 90.2 8% 67 2014 188 3.40 3.68 2.2 6.6 3.1 63% 8% 48/23/30 31 76 88.5 10% 87 2015 105 3.61 3.99 2.8 6.0 2.1 62% 7% 54/21/25 31 77 88.9 13% 64
Once again, he's displaying a decent, unremarkable skill set:
- He's not throwing as hard as he used to, and is getting fewer swings and misses, and as a result, not as many strikeouts as he did before.
- He's always induced a lot of ground balls, but is getting them at a career high rate this season. He's throwing more changeups than ever, and on that pitch, 65 percent of balls in play have been on the ground. He should continue to keep the ball down, which should keep the home run damage to a minimum.
- He did a great job of limiting the walks in both 2012 and 2014, but hasn't quite kept it down to that level this year. He's already had four outings in which he's walked four batters, and with a first pitch strike rate that sits around league average, odds are probably against him significantly improving upon his current 2.8 mark.
Niese continues to put up some respectable numbers, and provide value in most formats, thanks in large part to his ground ball tilt. Look elsewhere if you need upside, as both his velocity and Dom are well below his peak level. But Niese remains a steady, low-risk back of the rotation type that fits nicely onto many fantasy rosters.
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