(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Andujar, Givens, Perez, M. Gonzalez, and Bruce
Feb 26 2019
Andujar produces profit... With playing time in 2018, Miguel Andujar (3B, NYY) provided a profit with a .297, 27 HR, 92 RBI, and 83 R performance and $28 R$. With a spot in the Yankees lineup and a top-100 selection in NFBC leagues, what can he provide in 2019?
Year AB HR BA xBA vL vR bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2016^ 282 2 .255 N/A N/A N/A 7 84 N/A 30 N/A 57 N/A N/A 2017* 488 18 .303 .283 1.333 1.600 6 84 57/14/29 33 97 103 81 0% 2018 573 27 .297 .295 .822 .869 4 83 44/20/36 32 110 133 99 16% ^AA MLEs *Includes MLEs
Andujar can provide contributions in four categories:
- While his xPX and 92.7 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD point to league-average power, increasing his HctX and FB% bode well for 2019. In September, he posted a 45% FB% with a 103 xPX. With pop vL (148 PX) and vR (127 PX), he has the power for another 25-28 HR in 2019.
- His ct% and xBA support a batting average that can help fantasy rosters. Bank on a BA repeat in 2019.
- He carried over his AAA-success vL (1.099 OPS) and improved vR (.769 OPS) in the majors. Andujar posted a 37% hard-contact rate vR and a 46% FB% vL.
Continuation of his September FB% increase would help Andujar's chances for more home runs in 2019. With an above-average HctX and average xPX, count on 25-28 HR for now. Luckily, he hasn't traded ct% for the long ball, and his xBA supports a batting average that can boost a roster's BA. His four-category contributions and skills (77 BPV) are a fact, and they back a high-$20 repeat.
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Givens is in line for saves... Although the Orioles will have a different lineup in 2019, Mychal Givens (RHP, BAL) is back after posting eight saves with a 2.94 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of 2018. After his 4.8 Ctl in the first half, Givens had a 1.8 Ctl and 4.1 Cmd in the second half. How do his skills look for 2019?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV LI ==== === ==== ==== === ==== === === === ======== == == ==== === ==== 2015 30 1.80 2.61 1.8 11.4 6.3 63% 13% 39/30/31 29 80 5% 174 0.79 2016 75 3.13 3.64 4.3 11.6 2.7 59% 15% 35/25/39 32 78 9% 104 1.10 2017 79 2.75 3.61 2.9 10.1 3.5 57% 13% 43/17/40 26 81 13% 125 1.13 2018 77 3.99 4.08 3.5 9.3 2.6 56% 12% 36/24/39 29 66 5% 99 1.34
His skills (99 BPV) leave him as a late-round closer option:
- His SwK come largely from his four-seam fastball (11% SwK), but his slider (14% SwK) and change-up (14% SwK) also create swings and misses. He misses enough for bats for a 9.0+ Dom.
- Missing the zone early with below-average FpK adds risk to elevated Ctl in 2019, as he won't be able to sustain his 1.9 mark from the second half.
- While his 75% career S% vouches for slight improvement, his 2018 xERA casts some doubts on his ratios.
- Rising LI says he had the trust to close in 2018, but Baltimore will have a new manager in 2019.
Givens' below-average FpK will continue to add Ctl risk, and his xERA increase does not support a 2017 repeat. On the positive side, his SwK backs continued strikeouts. With an increasing LI, Givens should be clear for some save opportunities. Given his team context, the chances may be fewer, so bid on 20 saves and somewhere near his xERA.
Perez sustains power... After improving his HctX and xPX in 2017, Salvador Perez (C, KC) sustained his HctX, xPX and FB% in 2018. Even with a .235 BA, his 27 HR, 80 RBI, and 52 R provided $12 R$ at a weak position. Can we target his skills for consistent power behind the plate?
Year AB HR BA xBA vL vR bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2014 578 17 .260 .265 .632 .710 4 85 39/21/40 28 115 95 106 9% 2015 531 21 .260 .268 .560 .775 2 85 42/21/37 27 88 99 87 12% 2016 514 22 .247 .246 .763 .710 4 77 35/18/47 28 105 116 107 12% 2017 471 27 .268 .266 .788 .794 3 80 33/20/47 28 123 121 142 15% 2018 510 27 .235 .255 .702 .717 3 79 35/20/45 25 133 115 149 15%
Perez's power is worth targeting:
- He backs his mid-20's HR power with plenty of barrels, as his 8.1% Brls/PA ranked 29th in MLB in 2018. His above-average HctX and xPX support sustained power in 2019. With consistent FB%, he has enough power for another 25+ HR performance.
- Even with a decent ct%, some poor fortune (25% h%) hurt his 2018 batting average. His HctX and xBA back a BA closer to league average in 2019.
- Although it appears he slipped vR, a 24% h% hid a 120 PX and 46% hard-contact rate vR.
When looking for power and consistency, Perez can maintain his mid-20s HR power with his HctX, xPX, and FB%, and his Brls/PA and HctX support his current hr/f. Expect a few more points in batting average in 2019, as a poor h% affected his 2018 efforts. With four double-digit R$ seasons in the last five years, Perez's power and consistency are worth an investment.
Gonzalez looks for at-bats in MIN... In 2018, Marwin Gonzalez (OF, MIN) couldn't match his .303, 23 HR, 90 RBI, and 8 SB final line from 2017. His .247, 16 HR, 68 RBI, and 2 SB performance only resulted in $8 R$ in 2018. With news that he signed with the Twins, what should we expect in 2019?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX/xPX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== ======= ==== === === 2014 285 6/ 2 .277 .253 5 80 52/18/30 33 92 92/ 68 8% 91 8% 2015 344 12/ 4 .279 .265 4 78 44/23/33 33 109 107/100 14% 94 11% 2016 484 13/12 .254 .253 4 76 47/21/32 31 102 94/ 99 12% 98 17% 2017 455 23/ 8 .303 .283 10 78 44/20/36 35 104 132/ 94 18% 82 8% 2018 489 16/ 2 .247 .246 10 74 42/23/36 30 105 101/123 13% 90 4%
While he lost skills (26 BPV) in 2018, he can still chase double-digit R$ in 2019:
- If he can find the at-bats, his xPX and HctX support another 14-16 HR. His 93.4 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD ranked 123rd in MLB, but his hr/f from 2017 isn't returning.
- Although his HctX stayed consistent, losing ct% and his xBA claim that his .300 BA from 2017 is not in the cards. WIth a 78% career ct% and his LD%, he can provide a batting average near his .264 career BA.
- A 37% h% vR propped up his .946 OPS vR in 2017, and his .722 OPS vR returned to his .740 OPS career vR.
- With below-average Spd and a waning SBO, it's difficult to count on more than a handful of SB for 2019.
For those owners looking for multi-positional players outside of the top 200, Gonzalez's eligibility at 1B, 2B, SS, and OF fits the mold. If owners find a HR total in the teens acceptable, his xPX and HctX say he has enough for a power repeat. Even though the .300 batting average from 2017 was a fluke, his HctX and LD% support a batting average bump from his five-year low in 2018. His Spd and SBO prevent us from counting on many steals in 2019, but he can provide enough counting stats to chase $10 R$.
Bruce moves coasts... Injuries limited Jay Bruce (OF, SEA) to a .223, 9 HR, and 37 RBI performance in 319 at-bats in 2018, which halted a three-year streak of 26+ HR seasons from 2015-2017. In December, Bruce was traded from the New York Mets to the Seattle Mariners. With health, what do his skills suggest about returning to his previous power levels?
Year AB HR BA xBA vL vR bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2014 493 18 .217 .240 .556 .685 8 70 45/21/34 27 99 122 109 15% 2015 580 26 .226 .256 .666 .754 9 75 37/19/44 26 115 140 144 13% 2016 539 33 .250 .279 .678 .872 7 77 37/22/41 27 119 147 152 19% 2017 555 36 .254 .267 .718 .883 9 75 33/21/47 28 122 143 161 18% 2018 319 9 .223 .236 .660 .688 11 76 28/24/48 26 94 94 126 8%
If he's healthy, he can be a cheap source of power:
- Back and foot injuries may have played a role in his three HR in 212 first-half AB, as his six second-half HR in 107 second-half AB were backed by an 158 xPX. With a 127 career xPX and 16% career hr/f, he has enough power for another 20+ HR.
- While Bruce has struggled more vL with a .709 career-OPS vL, his .816 career OPS and 29% career-h% vR back improvement vR in 2019.
- His increased bb% is a good sign, and his league-average ct% and .247 career BA support a BA closer to league average.
When he returned from 66 days on the IL in 2018, his .811 OPS with six HR in 107 AB demonstrated that his power is still present. His 158 second-half xPX and 53% FB% say he has power enough left for 25 HR. Seattle is more favorable to LHB (10% LHB PF) than Citi Field (0% LHB PF). With league-average ct% and good plate discipline, his batting average should finish around league average. With health, Bruce can return to double-digit R$.
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