(*) FACT/FLUKES: Morneau, Molina, Markakis, Colon, Petit
Mar 13 2015
Look for more of the same from Morneau ... After moving to Colorado, Justin Morneau (1B, COL) got off to a scorching hot start, with 10 home runs in the first two months of 2014. He couldn't maintain that pace, but still enjoyed his best season in years, and took home the National League batting title. Can he come close to a repeat?
Year AB HR BA xBA OPSvL bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== ===== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2010 296 18 .345 .312 .966 14 79 33/22/45 39 146 185 187 17% 2011 264 4 .227 .231 .401 7 83 35/18/46 26 95 79 97 4% 2012 505 19 .267 .263 .569 9 80 41/22/37 30 109 110 115 13% 2013 572 17 .259 .258 .525 8 81 41/21/38 29 99 107 94 10% 2014 502 17 .319 .300 .665 6 88 44/23/33 34 120 115 109 11% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14-1H 293 13 .314 .302 .730 5 88 47/20/33 32 123 130 111 15% 14-2H 209 4 .325 .295 .532 8 88 40/28/33 36 116 94 106 7%
The gains were supported by solid BPIs, but it will be tough to duplicate his 2014 numbers:
- A career best contact rate was a major reason for the jump in his batting average. That was more skill than luck, and Coors Field reduces strikeouts by 19 percent, but his recent track record (81 percent contact rate from 2010-13) indicates that we'll see some drop-off in 2015.
- His fly ball rate continued to trend downward, reaching it's lowest point since his brief, 106 at-bat debut in 2003. His home park should help keep the home run totals respectable, but we can't bank on 20-plus homers anymore.
- His struggles against left-handers continued. At this point, it's feasible he finds himself on the bench a little more often when the Rockies are facing a southpaw.
Morneau faded somewhat during the second half, but both his HctX and xPX say it wasn't that bad. He brings slightly above average power to the table, and he's in a perfect environment, with Coors Field as his home and a talented lineup around him. He will probably give back some of the contact gains, and can't be expected to top last year's at-bat total by much. Still, a repeat, minus a little in the batting average department, looks like a good bet, making him an intriguing target once the top tier of first basemen are off the board.
Don't dwell on Molina's second half struggles ... Yadier Molina (C, STL) was in the midst of another strong season until a July thumb injury knocked him out for seven weeks. His power was a bit disappointing, though, and it was MIA following his late season return. Can we expect a return to form?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === 2011 475 14/4 .305 .291 6 91 45/20/35 31 115 101 101 9% 67 2012 505 22/12 .315 .300 8 89 40/25/35 32 124 107 112 14% 72 2013 505 12/3 .319 .301 6 89 42/24/34 34 126 109 111 8% 67 2014 404 7/1 .282 .271 6 86 51/23/27 31 115 75 95 7% 64 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14-1H 275 7/1 .280 .277 7 87 48/23/30 30 139 86 122 10% 58 14-2H 129 0/0 .287 .259 6 85 57/23/20 34 63 50 35 0% 78
He clearly wasn't himself late in the year, but his pre-injury numbers still show a high caliber hitter:
- In 110 plate appearances following his return in late August, he had just five extra base hits (all doubles).
- He'll still contribute a strong batting average, which is more than can be said about most catchers. But given the slight erosion of his contact rate, he may not get back to the .300 mark.
- HctX shows he was hitting the ball as hard as ever in the first half, although an uptick in ground balls held down his PX and home run totals. Another 20 home run season can probably be ruled out, but he has a strong chance of reaching double digits again.
Injuries took their toll on Molina in 2014, as the thumb injury clearly affected his power, and an oblique strain put an early end to his post-season. All signs have been positive so far, and it appears he will be completely healthy when Opening Day rolls around. While a return to his peak 2012 level would seem unrealistic, there's still a lot to like in his skill set. Molina possesses a very high floor, and at his current price point (NFBC ADP of 134), there's plenty of room for profit.
Markakis stuck in the doldrums of mediocrity ... Nick Markakis (OF, ATL) had another mediocre season at the plate in 2014. The Braves appear confident he can improve, as they inked him to a four-year deal worth about $44 million. What do the skills say?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== === 2011 641 15/12 .284 .275 9 88 43/23/34 30 112 78 96 8% 92 2012 420 13/1 .298 .303 9 88 42/27/31 31 125 105 111 11% 103 2013 634 10/1 .271 .259 8 88 47/23/31 30 104 56 71 6% 100 2014 642 14/4 .276 .258 9 87 46/20/34 30 103 74 85 7% 112 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14-1H 343 7/4 .294 .262 9 87 45/21/34 32 117 74 100 7% 113 14-2H 299 7/0 .254 .249 9 87 47/18/35 27 87 74 68 8% 108
It's a rather uninspiring, and declining, skill set:
- The home run totals haven't dropped much yet, but his power metrics from the past two seasons, and especially the second half of 2014, are cause for some concern. Moving from the best AL park for left-handed homers (where he's hit 23 of his 37 past three years) to a neutral park suggests his home run total is more likely to go down than up.
- A high contact rate assures he won't hurt in the batting average category. However, his xBA over the past two years, as a result of the drop in power, shows he's no sure thing to be an asset in that department.
- His greatest strength is his durability, as he's rung up 697 or more plate appearances in seven of the past eight years. While the everyday at-bats help boost the counting stats, the poor lineup he'll be batting in will offset that somewhat.
- He continues to flash decent speed, but it typically doesn't translate to much in the way of stolen bases. At this stage of his career, expecting more than a handful wouldn't be prudent.
Markakis underwent neck surgery in December and is a little behind in camp, though it's not expected to impact his availability for the start of the season. His power numbers have fallen off considerably in recent years, which combined with the move to a pitchers' park, double digit home runs isn't guaranteed. If his durability becomes a question, he'll have very little left to offer.
Colon's skills slowly fading ... Bartolo Colón (RHP, NYM), who is set to turn 42 years old in May, could take the mound on Opening Day. As expected, he couldn't repeat his sub-3.00 ERA from 2013, but he did increase the strikeouts. What does he have to offer going forward?
Year IP ERA xERA WHIP Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2011 164 4.00 3.70 1.29 2.2 7.4 3.4 65% 6% 44/20/36 31 73 11% 96 2012 152 3.43 4.23 1.21 1.4 5.4 4.0 67% 5% 46/18/36 30 75 9% 84 2013 190 2.65 4.00 1.17 1.4 5.5 4.0 65% 7% 42/21/38 30 80 6% 83 2014 202 4.09 3.82 1.23 1.3 6.7 5.0 66% 6% 39/22/39 32 69 9% 102
Pinpoint control helps him maintain decent ratios, but there are a few red flags:
- After notching very few strikeouts in 2012-13, his Dom rebounded in 2014. However, his swinging strike rate remained dangerously low.
- His ground ball rate is slowly trending down, and with the fences being moved in at Citi Field this year, home runs could become more of an issue.
- He still throws his fastball over 80 percent of the time, and it's losing velocity. His average fastball in 2014 was 3 mph slower than in 2011, and it went down in each of the final three months of the season.
Colon has held up fairly well during the late stages of his career, and becoming a control artist has helped him remain a serviceable option in deeper leagues. However, he's not getting many swings and misses, as he relies very heavily on a fastball that is losing velocity. There appears to be more downside than up heading into 2015.
Petit capable of returning substantial profit ... Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, SF) had an outstanding 2014 season in a variety of roles. Pitching primarily out of the pen, he set a major league record by retiring 46 straight batters. His final six appearances were as a starter, and in that span he produced a 3.93 ERA, but with an 11.3 Dom and 2.9 Cmd. He appears set to begin the 2015 season in the bullpen, but that could change, and he showed last year he can succeed in any role.
Year IP ERA xERA WHIP Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== ==== === ==== === === === ======== == == ==== === 2012* 171 3.48 4.47 1.42 2.0 6.2 3.1 70% 2% 38/25/38 35 76 0% 80 2013* 136 4.36 4.47 1.30 1.6 7.6 4.7 69% 13% 30/26/44 33 70 7% 108 2014 117 3.69 3.03 1.02 1.7 10.2 6.0 69% 13% 36/21/43 30 66 9% 152 *Includes MLEs
Petit flashed some elite skills in 2015:
- His outstanding Ctl is consistently supported by a high first pitch strike rate.
- A high swinging strike rate in 2013 hinted at the potential for more strikeouts, and he fulfilled that in 2014. He may give back some of it, but the swings and misses that he generates should again lead to a strong Dom.
- He serves up a lot of fly balls, which leaves him susceptible to the long ball. Luckily, AT&T Park is where fly balls go to die, as it reduces home runs more than any other in the majors (-34% LHB HR, -33% RHB HR).
- It would be a surprise if he got anywhere close to 200 innings, as he's not currently slated for a starting spot, and even if he got one, the innings jump would be steep. The team is also likely aware of the trouble he's had going deeper into games as a starter (.623 OPS first time thru order, .865 second time, .911 all subsequent plate appearances).
Petit doesn't throw very hard, but is lethal on right-handers, and gets a lot of whiffs, particularly with his curve that he's used more over the past two seasons. He will probably serve as both a starter and reliever again in 2015, and he proved last year that he has the flexibility, and the skills, to succeed in that manner. Don't hesitate to invest.
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