Batters

Lineups Outlook: Carroll drops in order, Profar trades with Bogaerts, and more

Batters

Greg Jewett

May 3 2024 3:02am

Lineups Outlook: Carroll drops in order, Profar trades with Bogaerts, and more

Greg Jewett

May 3 2024

Although it feels like piling on, anyone covering lineups cannot ignore a first-round fantasy pick being dropped into his team’s bottom-third lineup pocket. San Diego played an updated version of Trading Places by swapping out spots in the lineup between two veterans. Last, but not least, the Red Sox have incurred a rash of injuries, causing movement in the team's daily lineup structuring, with hot hitters accruing more plate appearances. These three topics represent the featured segments of this week’s Lineup Outlook.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Lineup note of interest: Corbin Carroll has hit seventh or eighth over his last seven starts.

Since this does not represent an injury column, Carroll’s shoulder will be left for further investigation, though our Speculator column earlier this week had some ideas. From a fantasy perspective, it’s been a downturn in production since he left a game early after a swing on June 29 last year. Before said event, he produced a robust .290/.367/.559 slash line (.92 on-base plus slugging percentage) with 20 doubles, three triples, 17 home runs, 44 RBI, and 24 stolen bases through 323 plate appearances in a 79-game span.

It’s these numbers that tantalized fantasy players, hoping for migration toward these results, especially the power numbers combined with his elite speed. However, things have not materialized as planned. Since July 2, 2023, Carroll's played in 106 games and produced nine home runs with a .255/.339/.391 slash (.731 OPS), and only 29 extra-base hits, including nine home runs over 456 plate appearances. His appreciable drop in power and on-base plus slugging should not be ignored. For reference, here are his rolling game results with June 29 highlighted:

There’s no confirmation his shoulder remains an issue this year, but his slow start has forced his manager into hitting him seventh or eighth in the batting order. Through his 26 plate appearances since being demoted in the lineup, he’s not scored a run while reaching base only five times with three hits and two walks.

Although this represents a small sample size this season, using the results from his last 106 games versus his first 79 provides a stark contrast in outcomes. It will be tough to provide a return on investment with reduced plate appearances, and he must remain aggressive when he reaches first base. Right now, fantasy players must be patient, but one must always hope for the best while planning for the worst.

As a result of Carroll's new lineup spot, Blaze Alexander has been hitting leadoff against left-handed pitching while Jake McCarthy has been batting first facing right-handed pitching. Ketel Marte has shifted to third in the batting order, which may enhance his RBI output moving forward. Monitor how things progress in Arizona, and here’s hoping Carroll finds past levels of production, even if he needs a stint on the injured list.

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San Diego Padres

Lineup note of interest: Jurickson Profar has moved to leadoff while Xander Bogaerts has dropped to fifth in the batting order.

Risk presents itself in small samples, which means one must take the recent hot streak by Profar with a grain of salt. However, he's making much better contact this season, evidenced by his average exit velocity rising by almost four miles per hour, along with his hard hit percentage sitting at a career-best 42.4 percent through his first 92 batted ball events this season. He’s been crushing fastballs, which means hitting ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup may fend off a collapse in his early season results.

Profar’s ascension into leading off coincides with an eight-game hitting streak during which he’s 15-for-30 with seven runs, two doubles, two home runs, six RBI, and a ridiculous 1.312 OPS. This cannot continue. However, his runs-plus-RBI will receive a boost in rest-of-season projections if he can stick atop the lineup. More on this in a moment.

On the other end of this switch, Bogaerts has been dropped to fifth, which does not represent a major drop in his potential outcomes, but it cannot be overlooked either. His average cratered at .213 after his last start leading off, and he’s on a modest three-game hitting streak since moving down the lineup.

Since counting statistics matter, the impact of the switch may not jump off the page, but when viewing the average production by plate appearances between these two lineup spots last year, here’s how it may impact each player:

Padres' leadoff hitters in 2023: 106 runs over 754 plate appearances (.141 runs per plate appearance) and 77 RBI (.102 RBI per plate appearance).
Padres' fifth batters in 2023: 80 runs over 692 plate appearances (.115 runs per plate appearance) and 65 RBI (.094 RBI per plate appearance).

With different batters on the roster this year these will not be concrete, though the difference in plate appearances should be understood by fantasy managers. Applying these rates for Profar would mean 10 more runs per 400 plate appearances, which does not win leagues, yet certainly helps. As for Bogaerts, hope lies in improving on last year’s RBI production at this spot in the lineup.

Boston Red Sox

Lineup note of interest: Wilyer Abreu and Connor Wong moving up in the lineup enhances their fantasy appeal.

At the onset of the season, Abreu logged five of his first seven starts batting in the bottom third of the lineup. However, through his most recent eight starts, he’s hit fourth seven times and fifth once, an appreciable gain in fantasy value. Before this shift, he was slashing .244/.370/.400 and since has produced seven runs, four doubles, a home run, seven RBI, a stolen base, a .412 average, and a 1.109 OPS. Discerning if this will be momentum from a hot streak or his skillset being unlocked by the trust of his manager remains to be seen. However, his maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph this year ranks in the top four percent of his peers.

Anytime a catcher bubbles toward the heart of the batting order, fantasy players take notice. Wong has hit fifth or sixth in nine of his last 10 starts. For the season, he owns a .366/.387/.620 slash with five home runs and 23 runs plus RBI. There will be regression to the mean, especially given his 16 strikeouts against one walk during his 75 plate appearances so far, but he’s produced career highs in contact rate and contact in the strike zone. It will be curious to see where these two shift when injured players return, but for now, they represent intriguing targets for those in 12-team mixed leagues, if available.

A parting bonus shot for those seeking help at third base: Tyler Nevin has nestled into the second spot of the A’s lineup with Zack Gelof on the injured list. Over his last 47 plate appearances, he’s launched four home runs and produced a .349/.383/.681 slash line (1.034 OPS). He’s also generated five barrels among his first 64 batted ball events with a 40.6 hard-hit percentage. It may be fleeting, but enjoy the ride while it lasts.

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