(*) BATTERS: None on/runners on splits, 2015
Jun 22 2015
Let's continue our one-split-away series by taking a look at the batters who have posted the most extreme batting average and power splits in the following situations: with the bases empty and with runners on base.
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Bases Empty Stats & Skills: 2013-2015 Year League BA OBP Slg OPS ISO | BB% K% Eye h% ==== ====== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== | === === ==== === 2013 AL .252 .313 .404 .717 .152 | 7% 20% 0.37 30% 2014 AL .246 .305 .381 .686 .136 | 7% 20% 0.34 29% 2015 AL .246 .304 .395 .699 .149 | 7% 21% 0.33 29% ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 NL .247 .306 .388 .694 .140 | 7% 21% 0.33 29% 2014 NL .245 .302 .376 .678 .131 | 7% 22% 0.31 30% 2015 NL .245 .301 .383 .684 .138 | 7% 21% 0.32 29% ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 MLB .250 .309 .396 .705 .146 | 7% 21% 0.35 29% 2014 MLB .245 .303 .379 .682 .134 | 7% 21% 0.33 30% 2015 MLB .245 .302 .389 .692 .144 | 7% 21% 0.32 29%
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Runners On Stats & Skills: 2013-2015 Year League BA OBP Slg OPS ISO BB% K% Eye h% ==== ====== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== | === === ==== === 2013 AL .261 .330 .405 .734 .144 | 9% 19% 0.47 31% 2014 AL .263 .330 .402 .733 .139 | 9% 19% 0.45 31% 2015 AL .262 .331 .406 .737 .144 | 9% 18% 0.49 31% ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 NL .257 .327 .390 .717 .133 | 9% 19% 0.47 31% 2014 NL .256 .324 .392 .716 .136 | 9% 20% 0.43 31% 2015 NL .265 .331 .404 .734 .139 | 8% 19% 0.43 32% ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 MLB .259 .328 .397 .726 .139 | 9% 19% 0.47 31% 2014 MLB .259 .327 .397 .724 .138 | 9% 19% 0.44 31% 2015 MLB .263 .331 .405 .736 .141 | 9% 19% 0.46 31%
Some key takeaways:
- Hitters draw more walks and strike out less with runners on base than with the bases empty
- Batting average typically is 15-20 points higher with runners on base compared to with the bases empty, likely driven by a reduction in strikeouts and an elevated hit rate
- There are no significant differences in isolated power (Slg minus BA) with the bases empty and with runners on base
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Let's take a look at significant none on/runners on splits so far in 2015.
First, the following bats own the widest none on/runners on BA splits:
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BA, None On vs. Runners On Name League Position BA None On BA Runners On Diff ================== ====== ======== ========== ============= ===== Utley, Chase NL 2B .236 .125 -.111 Semien, Marcus AL 3B/2B/SS .310 .210 -.100 Ramirez, Hanley AL LF/SS .318 .224 -.094 Trumbo, Mark AL 1B/LF/DH .277 .190 -.087 Rollins, Jimmy NL SS .242 .156 -.086 Forsythe, Logan AL 2B/1B/DH/3B .326 .246 -.080 Simmons, Andrelton NL SS .315 .235 -.080 Moustakas, Mike AL 3B .357 .280 -.077 Jones, Adam AL LF .333 .259 -.074 Souza, Steven AL RF .252 .179 -.073 Castro, Starlin NL SS .301 .236 -.065 Ortiz, David AL DH .264 .202 -.062 Perez, Salvador AL C .310 .250 -.060 Duda, Lucas NL 1B .293 .235 -.058 Galvis, Freddy NL SS .281 .224 -.057 Escobar, Yunel NL SS .355 .299 -.056 Pillar, Kevin AL CF .294 .242 -.052 Heyward, Jason NL RF .303 .252 -.051 Santana, Carlos AL 1B/3B/DH .238 .188 -.050 Kinsler, Ian AL 2B .284 .237 -.047 Markakis, Nick NL RF .310 .267 -.043 Castellanos, Nick AL 3B .235 .192 -.043 Cruz, Nelson AL RF/DH .333 .291 -.042 LaRoche, Adam AL DH/1B .237 .195 -.042 Zunino, Mike AL C .176 .136 -.040 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Mauer, Joe AL 1B/DH .184 .356 +.172 Crawford, Brandon NL SS .198 .365 +.167 Morales, Kendrys AL DH/1B .210 .366 +.156 Maybin, Cameron NL CF .229 .367 +.138 Norris, Derek NL C .193 .330 +.137 Calhoun, Kole AL RF .215 .352 +.137 Arenado, Nolan NL 3B .226 .360 +.134 Carter, Chris AL 1B/DH .158 .286 +.128 Bautista, Jose AL RF/DH .202 .327 +.125 Braun, Ryan NL LF .196 .320 +.124 Cabrera, Miguel AL 1B/DH .291 .413 +.122 Murphy, Daniel NL 2B .229 .348 +.119 Freeman, Freddie NL 1B .244 .361 +.117 Bryant, Kris NL 3B .233 .341 +.108 Holliday, Matt NL LF .253 .361 +.108 Gardner, Brett AL LF .236 .344 +.108 Cano, Robinson AL 2B .201 .301 +.100 McCutchen, Andrew NL CF .252 .348 +.096 Encarnacion, Edwin AL 1B/DH .195 .291 +.096 Abreu, Jose AL 1B .248 .343 +.095 Rizzo, Anthony NL 1B .272 .367 +.095 LeMahieu, DJ NL 2B .278 .368 +.090 *min 100 PA none on/runners on
Here are the hitters who have posted the widest ISO (Slg less BA) splits with the bases empty and with runners on base:
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ISO power, None On vs. Runners On Name League Position ISO None On ISO Runners On Diff ================== ====== ======== =========== ============== ===== Harper, Bryce NL RF .496 .279 -.217 Duda, Lucas NL 1B .286 .098 -.188 Beltre, Adrian AL 3B .226 .055 -.171 Semien, Marcus AL 3B/2B/SS .218 .048 -.170 Springer, George AL RF .264 .095 -.169 Cruz, Nelson AL RF/DH .327 .164 -.163 Dozier, Brian AL 2B .312 .151 -.161 Pederson, Joc NL CF .338 .189 -.149 Heyward, Jason NL RF .221 .072 -.149 Perez, Salvador AL C .259 .112 -.147 Valbuena, Luis AL 3B/2B .302 .155 -.147 Ortiz, David AL DH .240 .106 -.134 Frazier, Todd NL 3B .404 .271 -.133 Forsythe, Logan AL 2B/1B/DH/3B .209 .088 -.121 Rodriguez, Alex AL 3B .296 .176 -.120 Zunino, Mike AL C .196 .080 -.116 Jones, Adam AL CF .240 .129 -.111 Stanton, Giancarlo NL RF .388 .278 -.110 Santana, Carlos AL 1B/3B/DH .218 .111 -.107 Drew, Stephen AL SS .246 .143 -.103 Martin, Russell AL C .268 .167 -.101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cabrera, Miguel AL 1B/DH .149 .367 +.218 McCutchen, Andrew NL CF .103 .315 +.212 Arenado, Nolan NL 3B .199 .396 +.197 Gardner, Brett AL LF .108 .271 +.163 Morales, Kendrys AL DH/1B .092 .252 +.160 Norris, Derek NL C .117 .275 +.158 Murphy, Daniel NL 2B .064 .213 +.149 Goldschmidt, Paul NL 1B .238 .385 +.147 Holliday, Matt NL LF .053 .193 +.140 Gattis, Evan AL DH/C .153 .292 +.139 Cain, Lorenzo AL CF .087 .225 +.138 Crawford, Brandon NL SS .127 .261 +.134 Zimmerman, Ryan NL 3B .080 .202 +.122 LeMahieu, DJ NL 2B .042 .160 +.118 Posey, Buster NL C/1B .111 .222 +.111 Braun, Ryan NL LF .181 .291 +.110 Carter, Chris AL 1B/DH .158 .262 +.104 Vogt, Stephen AL 1B/C .202 .304 +.102 *min 100 PA none on/runners on
Let's take a closer look at five guys in each league who own significant none on/runners on BA and power splits.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) is one of the game's best-hitting 2B when the bases are empty, a situation during which he features both a solid BA and a lot of pop: .271 BA, .923 OPS, .312 ISO. Those marks decline significantly with runners on base: .237 BA, .723 OPS, .151 ISO. A tweak there would allow Dozier to increase even more his current four-year OPS rise: .603, .726, .762, .852.
Logan Forsythe (2B/1B/DH/3B, TAM) has plenty of value based on his multi-position qualification alone. He has also produced some nice surface stats so far in 2015: .288 BA, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 5 SB in 243 AB. Digging deeper, he has been an impact bat with the bases empty: .326 BA, 8% BB%, 15% K%, 0.52 Eye, .922 OPS, .209 ISO. While his plate control has been nearly the same with runners on base, his batting average and production have dropped a lot in that scenario: .246 BA, 9% BB%, 16% K%, 0.57 Eye, .672 OPS, .088 ISO. Transferring his none-on pop to when he hits with runners on base would help his HR and RBI production blossom.
Marcus Semien (3B/SS/2B, OAK) has been one of the most productive middle-infield eligible bats in MLB with the bases empty: .310 BA, .870 OPS. Both marks nosedive with runners on base: .210 BA, .546 OPS. That said, his plate skills are much better with runners on (10% BB%, 20% K%) than with the bases cleared (5% BB%, 22% K%), so hope is not lost. Semien remains a young bat worth owning, especially if he can adjust his approach to allow him to hit for higher average and power with guys on base.
George Springer (RF, HOU) lets his top-flight raw power upside come out when he is hitting with the bases empty: .296 BA, .941 OPS, .264 ISO. His average and power decline a lot when there are guys on base: .262 BA, .730 OPS, .095 ISO. Once Springer gets used to hitting in higher-pressure situations, expect his overall power to surge even more.
Mike Zunino (C, SEA) has a crazy 38% K% after 190 AB, so we can't expect his sub-.200 BA to improve anytime soon. That said, you're likely buying him for his power, and he does own a solid .196 ISO with the bases empty. With runners on base, Zunino's power evaporates (.080 ISO). He's another young bat who could show some significant gains with a little more composure when runners are on base.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) has shown more power than any bat in MLB when runners have been on base: .360 BA, 1.129 OPS, .396 ISO. He appears to lack some concentration with the bases empty: .226 BA, .696 OPS, .199 ISO. He could become a legit 40-HR threat if he can address that issue.
Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) looks like two different hitters during one situational split. With nobody on base, he resembles a legit All-Star at 1B: .293 BA, .956 OPS, .286 ISO, 10% BB%, 21% K%. He struggles to be productive when there are runners on base: .235 BA, .703 OPS, .098 ISO, 13% BB%, 22% K%. Given that his plate control remains solid with guys on base, there's hope that he can increase his power ceiling even further with a tweak in his approach when hitting with runners on base.
Bryce Harper (RF, WAS) owns by far the highest isolated power in MLB with the bases empty. His .496 ISO in that situation is nearly 100 points higher than anyone else. His .279 ISO with runners on base is good for twelfth in MLB. Given his even-better ISO with no one on base, Harper might have even more RBI upside than he's currently producing if he can elevate his ISO with runners on base.
Derek Norris (C, SD) has yet to fulfill his upper-tier bat upside at the catcher position due to some chronic struggles against LH bats. He also really struggles when the bases are empty: .193 BA, .556 OPS, .117 ISO. He hits the ball with tons more authority with runners on base: .330 BA, .976 OPS, .275 ISO. Norris still has a great shot at developing further with the bat.
Joc Pederson (CF, LA) cooled off a bit in May after his scorching April, but he has returned with a vengeance in June (.932 OPS, 113 BPV). And he has even more untapped upside if he can increase his production with runners on base (.886 OPS, .189 ISO) to match the levels he shows with the bases empty (.952 OPS, .338 ISO).
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