(*) BATTERS: BPV leaders, May 2016
May 30 2016
Let's continue our monthly look back at the players who posted the best skills during the previous month by moving on to hitters.
Here were the most skilled bats over the month of May (data through May 29):
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75+ BPV, May 2015* Name League Position bb% ct% Eye PX HctX xPX Spd BPV ================== ====== =========== === === ==== === ==== === === === Ortiz, David AL DH 11 83 0.71 252 186 194 75 180 Bradley, Jackie AL CF 12 83 0.82 192 141 140 105 144 Kang, Jung-ho NL 3B/SS 4 79 0.18 245 183 285 75 143 Machado, Manny AL 3B/SS 14 79 0.77 200 139 176 113 141 Pearce, Steve AL LF/1B/2B 13 83 0.92 176 155 175 97 131 Cabrera, Miguel AL 1B 12 88 1.17 143 148 152 97 123 Ozuna, Marcell NL CF 8 80 0.41 177 139 138 150 123 Zobrist, Ben NL 2B/LF 14 89 1.45 124 156 124 116 119 Beckham, Gordon NL 3B/2B 12 89 1.33 129 129 123 94 116 Duvall, Adam NL LF 2 74 0.09 229 110 158 95 115 Cespedes, Yoenis NL LF 11 82 0.67 178 118 134 73 115 Beltran, Carlos AL RF/DH 5 80 0.25 202 124 143 70 114 Castellanos, Nick AL 3B 6 79 0.33 197 120 184 78 113 Frazier, Todd AL 3B 15 80 0.85 171 114 124 83 112 Kinsler, Ian AL 2B 8 88 0.69 135 136 140 117 112 Thompson, Trayce NL LF 10 78 0.50 191 124 146 83 111 Seager, Kyle AL 3B 10 88 0.92 137 146 148 89 111 Lucroy, Jonathan NL C 9 78 0.45 176 131 189 119 110 Herrmann, Chris NL C 9 72 0.36 193 139 205 140 105 Bour, Justin NL 1B 11 81 0.67 173 146 140 57 104 Posey, Buster NL C/1B 9 87 0.75 139 170 153 83 104 Adams, Matt NL 1B 10 77 0.47 187 138 166 81 104 Davis, Khristopher AL LF/DH 2 76 0.08 213 138 177 73 102 Cano, Robinson AL 2B 4 86 0.31 154 148 131 84 102 Guyer, Brandon AL LF 4 78 0.20 183 111 108 100 99 Hill, Aaron NL 2B/3B 13 84 0.93 133 126 122 92 97 Bautista, Jose AL RF/DH 16 85 1.27 127 147 115 70 97 Carpenter, Matt NL 3B 14 76 0.65 181 131 205 62 95 Lamb, Jacob NL 3B 11 80 0.61 145 135 132 114 94 Trout, Mike AL CF 13 80 0.71 155 144 152 80 94 Ramirez, Jose AL SS/2B/LF/3B 13 89 1.33 104 80 57 90 93 Altuve, Jose AL 2B 12 93 1.88 86 141 135 90 93 Yelich, Christian NL LF 11 78 0.59 159 128 126 90 92 Santana, Carlos AL 1B/DH 18 85 1.47 108 139 122 92 91 Ellsbury, Jacoby AL CF 11 85 0.82 101 90 37 152 89 Valencia, Danny AL 3B/LF 3 79 0.14 170 113 142 92 89 Miller, Bradley AL SS/CF 10 77 0.47 145 102 97 150 89 Arenado, Nolan NL 3B 9 85 0.63 115 118 135 121 87 Trumbo, Mark AL RF/DH/1B 8 68 0.26 211 115 165 96 86 Rizzo, Anthony NL 1B 15 87 1.31 109 128 108 69 86 Betts, Mookie AL CF 6 87 0.50 112 118 79 110 84 Murphy, Daniel NL 2B/3B 2 89 0.17 108 150 174 114 84 Braun, Ryan NL RF 12 87 1.00 105 119 75 84 82 Crisp, Coco AL LF 4 88 0.36 117 111 90 88 82 Donaldson, Josh AL 3B 15 82 1.00 124 147 143 75 82 Owings, Christopher NL 2B/CF/SS 8 84 0.53 115 98 57 122 81 Polanco, Gregory NL RF 8 74 0.35 173 111 123 92 81 Pedroia, Dustin AL 2B 11 87 0.92 96 118 81 103 80 Zimmerman, Ryan NL 1B 9 80 0.48 153 136 128 64 80 Pujols, Albert AL 1B/DH 11 88 1.08 103 137 119 64 79 Beltre, Adrian AL 3B 6 89 0.64 112 117 121 59 79 Kiermaier, Kevin AL CF 7 83 0.45 120 110 103 109 78 Martinez, J.D. AL RF 10 69 0.35 178 115 169 117 75 Pederson, Joc NL CF 14 68 0.50 190 133 181 77 75 *min 50 AB
Let's take a closer look at a bunch of noteworthy skill performances during May.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Jackie Bradley (CF, BOS) was profiled as a sell-high candidate after showing poor pitch recognition (6% bb%, 74% ct%, 0.24 Eye) in April. He turned all of those marks around in his elite May: 15% bb%, 84% ct%, 1.07 Eye. While few owners will sell him now, there are some reasons for caution. His continued groundball tilt (50/18/32 G/L/F) makes him a risky bet to sustain impactful power, and his flyball distance is barely breaking into the MLB top 100. In addition, his 38% h% is far higher than any hit rate he has ever posted. So underneath his enticing tools continue to lie some warning signs that point to a regression patch.
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Todd Frazier (3B, CHW) made some subtle gains in May in pitch recognition (14% bb%) and hard contact (108 HctX), helping him post a near-elite BPV that month. Currently he owns career-best marks in walk rate (12% bb%), contact rate (79% ct%), batting eye (0.64 Eye), and flyball rate (50% FB%). As his 20% h% returns back to its prior near-30% h% norm, his BA will head north. Frazier is a good hold.
Brad Miller (SS/CF, TAM) combined strong power (145 PX) and speed (150 Spd) in May, helping him post an .831 OPS after a poor .607 OPS in April. His expected power (81 xPX) tempers optimism that he can continue on his 20-HR pace, but there's immediate 15/15 potential here.
Steve Pearce (LF/1B/2B, TAM) has value because he qualifies at two spots in the infield as well as the outfield. His performance in May reminds us that his production can have value too: 1.036 OPS in 77 AB. His underlying skills supported his surge in May too: 13% bb%, 83% ct%, 0.92 Eye, 176 PX, 155 HctX, 175 xPX. Just bear in mind that his production is more average than impactful against RH arms (.718 OPS); it flourishes against lefties (1.313 OPS).
José Ramírez (SS/2B/LF/3B, CLE) continues to feature some of the best plate discipline of any bat in MLB: 13% bb%, 89% ct%, 1.33 Eye. His low rate of hard contact (80 HctX) means we can't expect much power from him (57 xPX), but there remains some latent speed here if he can work his way into more SB opportunities.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Gordon Beckham (3B/2B, ATL) remains on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, since he is years removed from having any fantasy relevance. That said, tuck away some of the top-tier plate discipline skills he flashed in May: 12% bb%, 89% ct%, 1.33 Eye. He also hit the ball very hard (129 HctX), helping to produce a 123 xPX that validated his actual 129 PX. He's also hitting well and showing good plate discipline against both LH and RH bats. It remains to be seen if he can sustain these gains, but if you play in a deep league and need a 2B or MI, there's some post-hype speculation value here.
Chris Herrmann (C, ARI) owns the second-highest flyball distance of any bat in MLB, as well as top 40 exit velocity when he makes contact. His plate skills in May were strong too: 13% bb%, 0.58 Eye, 145 HctX, 205 xPX. He features an elite 213 PX against RH bats. He has emerged as a prime target as your second catcher.
Jung-ho Kang (SS, PIT) posted the highest expected power (285 xPX) of any bat in MLB during the month of May, and it wasn't even close. It's a level that is supported by his average flyball distance of 305 feet, which places him in the top 20 of all batters. Problem is, with a 3% bb% and 0.17 Eye, he'll need to prove that he can adjust to pitchers once they adjust to him. He's an attractive investment but expect volatility.
Marcell Ozuna (CF, MIA) has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB during the past month (.425 BA, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 1.215 OPS in 113 AB). That surge has come with an uptick in pitch recognition too (8% bb%, 81% ct%, 0.45 Eye). He also owns a 150+ Spd, which has only been muted by a total lack of green light (0% SBO% last month). With an average flyball distance increase of nearly 15 feet from 2015 and more of an uppercut in his swing, Ozuna's power growth seems legit. But he's a poor bet to maintain a .300+ BA given his high 40% h% and work-in-progress plate discipline.
Joc Pederson (CF, LA) put up the fifth-best expected power (181 xPX) of any bat in the NL during the month of May. He still struggles to make contact, but his contact rate improved quite a bit from April (64% ct%) to May (69% ct%). His rate of hard contact also is on a two-year uptick (115 HctX). At age 24, he's a good post-hype trade target who hasn't reached his ceiling.
Trayce Thompson (LF, LA) looked electric in the LA OF during May: 6 HR, 14 RBI, .992 OPS in 60 AB. That production did not come at the expense of his plate discipline. In fact, his plate metrics surged across the board in May: 10% bb%, 78% ct%, 0.54 Eye. Just keep in mind that his power was the result of a fluky 40% HR/F; with a 53/15/32 G/L/F, we can't expect him to sustain his power bursts.
Christian Yelich (LF, MIA) continues to be on a path that will result in a breakout. His skills were strong again in May (92 BPV), and his high rate of hard contact (128 HctX) gives him some interesting expected power (126 xPX) that has been kept at bay due to his groundball stroke (56/21/23 G/L/F). When he does loft the ball, his power potential becomes even more evident, as his average flyball distance of 314 feet places him in the top 10 of all MLB bats.
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