(*) MINORS: 2015 top catching prospects

Minor Leagues

ROB GORDON

Jan 30 2015 12:05am

(*) MINORS: 2015 top catching prospects

ROB GORDON

Jan 30 2015

This week we kickoff our annual review of the top prospects in baseball by position. Between now and Opening Day, we'll examine one position a week, and examine both rookies ready to contribute in the big leagues now, as well the top 15 overall prospects at each position.

We start with the catchers. Because of the demands of the position, very few backstops project to receive much playing time in 2015. Just like last year, only one catcher, Christian Bethancourt (ATL), is expected to win a starting job out of spring training. While injuries and trades often result in unforeseen opportunities, it seems unlikely that those backstops who begin the year in the high minors will play pivotal roles in the majors by year-end.

Only four catchers made the HQ100 that was posted a few weeks ago, down from six a year ago. Over the past decade, it has been exceedingly difficult for MLB teams and fantasy owners to find impact catchers at the major league level. The numbers of players who can handle both the rigors of catching 4-5 days a week and make an impact offensively can be counted on one hand. Those who can—such as Buster Posey—are frequently moved to 1B or DH to keep them healthy and to get their bats in the lineup on a daily basis. Players with fantasy value like Yadier Molina, Devin Mesoraco, or Salvador Perez are becoming the exception rather than the norm. This creates a unique challenge for those who play in two-catcher formats, especially in dynasty leagues where having even moderate offensive production has value.

Below we take a look those catching prospects most likely to contribute in 2015 and at the end of the column we review those most likely to have an impact over the long-haul. The dollar ranges listed below represent projected values for 2015 and are broken down in $5 dollar increments. (See a more detailed scouting report on each player by following the link to his team's organization report or PlayerLink page.)

$5-$10
Christian Bethancourt (C, ATL)
The recent trade of Evan Gattis to the Astros means that Bethancourt heads into spring training as the odds-on favorite to take over as the Braves everyday backstop. Bethancourt is an elite defensive catcher who moves well behind the plate and is very good at limiting the running game. He also gets rave reviews for his ability to call games and handle pitchers, though he does sometimes struggle with passed balls. At the plate, Bethancourt has yet to develop as a consistent hitter. He can be overly aggressive at the plate and walked in just 3% of his MLB AB with a 77% contact rate. He does have good raw power, but his career high in home runs is 12 and after six minor league seasons he has a .379 Slg%. Bethancourt could yet grow into a viable fantasy player in NL-only formats, but tread cautiously in 2015.

$1-$5
J.T. Realmuto (MIA)
Blake Swihart (BOS)
James McCann (DET)
Gary Sánchez (NYY)
Austin Hedges (SD)
Kevin Plawecki (NYM)

Outside of Bethancourt, there aren’t any locks to earn full-time AB in 2015. The Red Sox Blake Swihart is the top ranked catching prospect in the minors and has the tools to be an All-Star. With Christian Vázquez and Ryan Hanigan ahead of him, Swihart is slated to start the year at Triple-A Pawtucket, but it isn’t hard to envision a scenario where Swihart takes over on an everyday basis by mid-season. Last year, Swihart hit .300/.353/.487 with 26 doubles and 13 home runs in 416 AB. He has a good understanding of the strike zone and should be one of the better offensive options right out of the gate.

James McCann will have to compete with Bryan Holaday for time as the backup to Alex Avila. While Holaday has more experience, McCann is the better defender and should earn important AB, especially with Avila’s injury history. Last year McCann hit .295/.343/.427 in 417 AB at Triple-A Toledo. While McCann launched only 7 HR, he also had 34 doubles and has the potential to hit 10-15 HR in the majors.

The Padres Austin Hedges is one of the better defensive backstops in the minors and is ready to handle a major league staff right now, but questions about his bat remain and last year he hit just .225/.268/.321 in 427 AB at Double-A. Hedges will start the year in the hitter-friendly PCL and could emerge of Derek Norris’ primary back-up by mid-season, but don’t look for much in the way of fantasy production.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the mercurial Gary Sánchez. Some scouts remain convinced that Sanchez has the tools to hit for power and average in the majors, but he has yet to duplicate his breakout of 2012 and is a below-average defender. With Brian McCann locked up until 2018, Sanchez might have to wait for a trade or a serious injury to get an extended look in the majors.

J.T. Realmuto is another prospect who is ready for the majors, but will have to wait for an opportunity. The Marlins #2 prospect has good power and surprising speed (he stole 18 bases in 2014) and is excellent defensively, nailing 39% of base-stealers last year. Realmuto is blocked by Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has been inconsistent throughout his career. If the Marlins fall out of contention, they could move him in favor of Realmuto.

Plawecki is a long-shot to have a fantasy impact in 2015, but makes a decent end-game gamble is deep NL-only formats. Plawecki is an offensive-oriented catcher with power and a good idea of what to do at the plate. In 2014, the 1st round pick hit .309/.365/.460 with 24 doubles and 11 home runs in 376 AB, as he split time between Double and Triple-A. Plawecki makes consistent, hard contact with solid plate discipline. Most likely the Mets will give Travis d’Arnaud a very long leash, but an injury or prolonged slump could create an opening for Plawecki.

Top 15 Catching Prospects
1. Blake Swihart (BOS)
2. Jorge Alfaro (TEX)
3. Kevin Plawecki (NYM)
4. Christian Bethancourt (ATL)
5. Austin Hedges (SD)
6. Reese McGuire (PIT)
7. Gary Sánchez (NYY)
8. Chance Sisco (BAL)
9. Max Pentecost (TOR)
10. Luis Torrens (NYY)
11. Andrew Susac (SF)
12. J.T. Realmuto (MIA)
13. James McCann (DET)
14. Clint Coulter (MIL)
15. Justin O’Conner (TAM)

Long-term, Alfaro and Swihart are head and shoulders ahead everyone else on this list. The 21-year-old Alfaro still has some learning to do on defense, though he has a cannon arm along with impressive raw power (17 home runs in 2014). He can be overly aggressive at the plate and isn’t a lock to stick at catcher, but he has the bat speed and raw power to be a special player.

Reese McGuire doesn’t get a lot of press, but the 19-year-old 1strounder has solid all-around potential. As with most catching prospects, his bat lags behind his glove and McGuire swatted just 3 home runs in 2014. Most likely, he profiles as a good glove guy who hits for average but with moderate power.

The Brewers Clint Coulter is a bit of a wild-card. The 21-year-old 1st rounder had a nice breakout in 2014, hitting 287/.410/.520 with a 14% BB rate and 22 HR. Concerns about his ability to stick behind the plate keep him from being ranked higher and he saw action in the OF during a stint in the Arizona Fall League. Still he is one of the few catching prospects who projects to hit 20+ HR in the majors. As a result he is worth taking a chance on in dynasty formats and might hit enough to have value even if he changes positions.