(*) MINORS: 2014 Arizona Fall League Preview

Minor Leagues

ROB GORDON

Sep 25 2014 11:03pm

(*) MINORS: 2014 Arizona Fall League Preview

ROB GORDON

Sep 25 2014

The Arizona Fall League begins October 7 and this year's rosters are packed with excellent prospects who have a chance to become outstanding big leaguers. Similar to past years, the pitching ranks are quite thin, but there are several position players worthy of acclaim. Rob Gordon and Jeremy Deloney analyze the six rosters and provide their assessments on some of the top pitchers, players, and sleepers to follow during the 2014 AFL season.

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Salt River Rafters
MLB teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins
Roster Summary: Though not blessed with a ton of depth, the roster is highlighted by a handful of potential stars, some of whom had injury-riddled seasons. Byron Buxton (OF, MIN), Mark Appel (RHP, HOU), and Archie Bradley (RHP, ARI) lead the way for a team that will be closely watched by fans and baseball executives. The pitching staff in particular should be exciting to watch every night with a slew of impressive arms. Eddie Butler (RHP, COL) and Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, MIA) both appeared in the majors in 2014 and should push for significant time entering 2015. The everyday lineup has some intriguing bats and includes players such as Eddie Rosario (OF, MIN) and Trevor Story (SS, COL) who both struggled in Double-A.
Best Position Player: Despite an injury-riddled campaign, Buxton (OF, MIN) stands out with his natural talent and plus athleticism. The 20-year-old missed significant time early with a wrist injury, then later ended his season after a devastating concussion in his first game upon his promotion to Double-A. Buxton only hit .240/.313/.405 with 4 HR and 6 SB in High-A, but he has all the requisite tools to be an impact player, possibly by 2016.
Best Pitcher: Archie Bradley (RHP, ARI) received a lot of hype in spring training and it was expected that the 22-year-old would see significant action in the big leagues. That never materialized and he struggled through mediocre performance and an elbow injury that forced him to miss two months. Bradley began the year in Triple-A and made five starts, posting a 5.18 ERA and 8.5 Dom before succumbing to the elbow problem. He eventually returned in June after missing two months and started 12 games in Double-A. He has the size, plus fastball, and above average breaking ball to be a #1-2 starter in a few years.
Sleeper Prospect: Another prospect who missed time with an injury, Vincent Velasquez (RHP, HOU) has slowly returned from Tommy John surgery in 2011, but was shelved by a groin injury for two months. Despite the missed time, he showed his natural arm strength and ability to miss bats, even in an offensive environment at Lancaster of the High-A California League. He was 7-4 with a 3.74 ERA, 3.7 Ctl, and 11.7 Dom in 55.1 innings. He has easy arm action that produces a plus mid-90s fastball and his change-up is advanced for his age and limited experience.
Issues to Watch: The rebounds of Appel, Bradley, and Buxton are likely the top stories of the 2014 AFL. Appel performed much better in Double-A (3.69 ERA, 9.0 Dom, .236 oppBA) , but he certainly didn’t look the part of the number one overall pick from 2013. Much was expected of Rosario once he returned from a drug suspension. He started hot, but struggled mightily after a few weeks and only hit .237/.277/.396 with questionable defense in Double-A.

Surprise Saguaros
MLB Teams: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
Roster Summary: The pitching staff lacks intriguing names and upside potential, though a few have the potential to wow with their electric arms. Tayron Guerrero (RHP, SD), in particular, could move quickly as reliever. The infield is blessed with excellent defensive shortstops, including Deven Marrero (SS, BOS) and Trea Turner (SS, SD). Overall, there is impressive depth within the rank s of the position players and the everyday lineup should put up plenty of runs. Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD), Jesse Winker (OF, CIN), and Nick Williams (OF, TEX) all have the potential to be above average performers in the big leagues.
Best Position Player: Though he may eventually move across the diamond from 3B to 1B, D.J. Peterson (3B, SEA) is an offensive force. Between High-A and Double-A, the 22-year-old hit .297/.360/.552 with 31 doubles and 31 HR in 495 AB. He takes hard cuts at the ball, but he makes good contact for a prospect of his profile. He could stand to be a little more selective at the plate, but he can be counted on to hit 25+ HR while hitting .280+. He doesn’t run well and his limited defensive ability slightly reduces his prospect status.
Best Pitcher: The Reds drafted the 21-year-old in the first round of the 2014 draft and it is expected for Nick Howard (RHP, CIN) to get to the majors relatively quickly. He was a college reliever, but he is expected to be converted to a starter as a pro. He has a deep repertoire with a plus fastball, hard curveball, slider, and change-up. He served in both roles in Low-A upon signing and showed mix results (3.74 ERA, 2.9 Ctl, and 6.2 Dom in 33.2 innings). However, he’ll likely begin 2015 in High-A with an outside shot at reaching the majors by early 2016. That could be quicker if he returns to a relief role.
Sleeper Prospect: Patrick Kivlehan (3B, SEA) played football in college and only played baseball his senior year. That hasn’t stopped him from showing his offensive ability. He smashed a career-high 20 HR while hitting .295/.363/.507 between High-A and Double-A and also showed drastic improvement with his glove. The 24-year-old mostly played 3B, but also saw action at 1B and LF. Kivlehan is a solid athlete who should continue to hit with his simple stroke and patient approach at the plate.
Issues to Watch: The Red Sox were quite pleased when they were able to ink Rusney Castillo (OF, BOS) from Cuba to a massive contract. He showcased his wares briefly in the big leagues and eyes will be on him as he gets extensive action in the outfield. There will also be attention on the offensive development of Marrero and Turner. The Padres were delighted with Turner’s pro debut after he hit .369/.447/.529 with 14 SB in Low-A.

Mesa Solar Sox
MLB Teams: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
Roster Summary: An initial scan of the AFL rosters would likely lead to a lot of buzz surrounding the position player prospects of Mesa. The Athletics sent top performers Matt Olson (1B, OAK) and Daniel Robertson (SS, OAK) to the AFL while former Oakland prospect Addison Russell (SS, CHC) joins his ex-teammates in the infield. The outfield is led by breakout player Dalton Pompey (OF, TOR) who ended the 2014 campaign in the majors with the Blue Jays, his fourth stop on the year. The pitching staff isn’t unlike others in the league. There aren’t many top prospects in the rotation or bullpen, but there are a few to keep an eye on.
Best Position Player: This could go in any number of directions, but Addison Russell (SS, CHC) was the choice despite Olson’s power breakout and Pompey’s stunning ascension. The 20-year-old has consistently played against older competition since signing as a first round pick in 2012. The Cubs acquired him from Oakland on July 4 and he immediately showed why he’s one of the top prospects in baseball. Russell hit .295/.350/.508 with 13 HR and 6 SB in 258 AB (mostly in Double-A), missing time along the way with a hamstring injury. He has the ability to stick at SS while also contributing in a big way with the bat.
Best Pitcher: The AFL is often a place for prospects who lost development time during the regular season and C.J. Edwards (RHP, CHC) is in that camp. He missed three months with shoulder inflammation, but pitched like he has his entire career upon his return. With Double-A Tennessee, the 22-year-old posted a 2.44 ERA, 3.9 Ctl, and 8.6 Dom in 48 innings. Most impressive was his .180 oppBA and ideal ability to keep the ball on the ground. He is still quite thin, but has an electric arm that can generate mid-90s heat which he complements with two excellent breaking balls.
Sleeper Prospect: Though some considered him a throw-in in the big June trade between the Padres and Angels, Trevor Gott (RHP, LAA) is very close to pitching in the big leagues. He was a closer in college and served in that same role while in High-A with the Padres. The 22-year-old has a very deceptive delivery featuring quick arm action that produces a nice 91-95 mph fastball. He’ll mix in a slider that is a potential out pitch and an occasional change-up. Adding to his intrigue is his extreme groundball tendency. He pitched 60.2 innings in 2014, posting a 2.97 ERA and 9.0 Dom.
Issues to Watch: The Angels could use some good news in the prospect development department, especially after Kaleb Cowart (3B, LAA) continued to struggle in Double-A after repeating the level from 2013. His offensive output was eerily similar year over year and he’s looking for a spark to return him among the organization’s better prospects. Roberto Osuna (RHP, TOR) missed most of the season after Tommy John surgery in July 2013 and he returned to High-A as a 19-year-old. He has excellent stuff, but will be treated cautiously in the AFL.

Scottsdale Scorpions
MLB Teams: New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants.
Roster Summary: The Scorpions don’t have a ton of elite level talent, but they will feature three prospects from our Mid-Season Top 50 list – #23 Tyler Glasnow (RHP, PIT), #42 Josh Bell (OF, PIT), and #50 Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM). The Scorpions also features a couple of interesting hurlers in Cory Mazzoni (RHP, NYM) and Clayton Blackburn (RHP, SF). The 24-year-old Mazzoni can hit 95 mph on the radar gun and has good control, but lacks a quality third offering and looks to be destined for a relief role. Blackburn on the other hand tops out around 91 mph, but has four average to above-average offerings and a strong AFL could put him in contention for a spot in the Giants rotation in mid-to-late 2015.
Best Position Player: When the Pirates took OF Josh Bell with the 61st overall pick in the 2011 draft, they took a huge gamble. Bell was as two-sport athlete in high school, had a full ride scholarship to play football at the University of Texas, and his agent was Scott Boras. The Pirates needed $5 million to lure Bell away from football, but the gamble is finally paying dividends. Bell hit .335 with a .502 slugging percentage at High-A and then held his own when moved up to Double-A Altoona. He is only beginning to tap into his raw power, but showed an improved approach at the plate and struck out just 55 times in 424 AB. Bell remains raw in some aspects of his game, but he gives the Pirates another impact prospect.
Best Pitcher: The Pirates Tyler Glasnow continues to emerge of one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He followed up on his breakout performance of 2013 by going 12-5 with a miniscule 1.74 ERA. At 6-7, 195, Glasnow uses his size effectively to pitch downhill and overpowers hitters with a plus, plus 93-96 mph fastball that tops out at 99 mph. His curveball continues to improve and he mixes in an average change-up. Glasnow now has a minor league career ERA of 1.91 with 12.0 strikeouts per nine. The AFL will give Glasnow a good test against older hitters.
Sleeper Prospect: The Mets have to be plenty surprised by the rapid development of righty Rob Whalen. Whalen was a 12th round pick in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He has a decent low-90s fastball with some nice late life on it and mixes in a plus curveball, a change, and a slider. In 24 professional starts, Whalen is 12-3 with a 1.85 with 37 BB/137 K in 141 IP. Fastball command has been key to his development and a good stint in the AFL could boost his stock.
Issues to Watch: The Scorpions have two of the more interesting players in the AFL this year in Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) and Eric Jagielo (3B, NYY). Both are former first round picks who have yet to have a breakout. The Mets made Nimmo the 13th overall pick in the 2011 draft despite the fact that he was from Wyoming and went to a high school without a varsity baseball team. The 21-year-old Nimmo has been slow to develop. He got off to a really good start, hitting .322 with 50 BB/51 K in 227 AB for High-A St. Lucie, but struggled when promoted to Double-A, hitting .238/.339/.396 in 240 AB—not exactly the type of production you expect from the 13th overall pick. The Yankees made Jagielo the 26th overall pick in 2013 after a standout collegiate career at Notre Dame. He has good power, but now owns a career slash line of .259/.360/.457 and his defense remains below-average at 3B. Nimmo and Jagielo need to have good showings in the AFL to remain in their team’s long-term plans.

Glendale Desert Dogs
MLB Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers
Roster Summary: When rosters were initially announced, it looked like the Desert Dogs would be thin but would have some decent high-end talent, but with news that Dariel Álvarez (OF, CHW) and Devon Travis (2B, DET) have been pulled from the AFL, the Dogs could be hard-pressed to keep pace offensively. Outside of the Dodgers Corey Seager (SS/3B. LA) there isn’t a Top 100 prospect on the squad. While the Desert Dogs might be lacking in big names and offensive production, they do boast one of the better defensive clubs in the league. Seager, a natural shortstop, is slated to see action at the hot corner where his soft hand and strong arm will be an asset and with Darnell Sweaney (2B, LA), Tim Anderson (SS, CHW), and Nick Ramirez (1B, MIL) they provide the club with stellar defense. On the mound, Robbie Ray (LHP, DET) and Chris Bassitt (RHP, CHW) give the Dogs some hurlers with big-league experience, but otherwise there are no dominant arms on the club.
Best Position Player: Coming into 2014, most scouts considered Joc Pederson the Dodgers top prospect. Yet despite the fact that Pederson hit .303 with 33 HR and 30 SB in the PCL, Seager may have passed Pederson as the club’s top prospect. The 20-year-old Seager had a monster season, hitting .349/.402/.602 with 50 doubles, 20 home runs, and 97 RBI between High-A and Double-A. At 6-4, 215 Seager has always been oversized for SS and the much-anticipated move to 3B look like it will happen in the AFL. If that transition goes well, Seager could be in the majors by mid-2015.
Best Pitcher: The Tigers Robbie Ray proved he wasn’t yet ready for prime-time, going 1-4 with an ugly 6.83 ERA in 6 starts with the Tigers. The 22-year-old lefty comes after hitters with a plus 92-95 mph fastball and a good, if inconsistent change-up. Ray has yet to develop a consistent curveball and big-league hitters simply teed-off on his fastball (.344 oppBAA). Long-term Ray still has good stuff, but priority number one in the AFL will be to refine his approach and prove he can get hitters out with his breaking ball.
Sleeper Prospect: The White Sox Tim Anderson doesn’t get much national attention, but the athletic shortstop has some above-average tools and is worth watching in AL-only formats. The 21-year-old Anderson missed more than a month of action with a broken wrist, but when he was on the field, hit .303/.328/.481 with 21 doubles, 9 home runs, and 10 SB in 347 AB. Anderson has above-average speed, but needs to refine his approach at the plate. He walked just 9 times while striking out 82. Anderson remains somewhat raw, but has the size and tools to come on quickly if he can figure things out.
Issues to Watch: It will be interesting to see how Bassitt and Ray fare in the hitter-friendly AFL. The 25-year-old Bassitt has a good low-to-mid-90s sinking fastball. When he’s on, he’s proven capable of getting major league hitters out and should fare well in the AFL. Ray of course came over to the Tigers in the Doug Fister trade and looked over-matched in six starts with the Tigers. He still has good long-term potential, but will need to show improved command before he gets another shot with the Tigers.

Peoria Javelinas
MLB Teams: Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Roster Summary: The Javelinas has a nice mixture of high-end prospects, pitching, defense, and speed. With players like Raul Mondesi (SS, KC), Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE), Hunter Dozier (3B, KC), Bubba Starling (OF, KC), and Kyle Wren (OF, ATL) they will be an exciting club to watch and they have more raw athleticism than any team in the AFL. The Javelinas don’t have a ton of pitching depth, but have some of the better arms in the AFL, including Kyle Zimmer (RHP, KC), Miguel Almonte (RHP, KC), and the oft-injured Tyrell Jenkins (RHP, STL). The Javelinas also have a nice collection of bullpen arms, highlighted by Sam Tuivailala (RHP, STL) and Nate Hyat (RHP, ATL) and will be one of the more well-rounded clubs in the AFL.
Best Position Player: The Cleveland Indians Francisco Lindor is a consensus Top 10 prospect, but if you see him in action at during the Arizona First Pitch weekend don’t expect to be blown away by hit bat—at least not yet. The 20-year-old is highly regarded more for his defense and owns a career slash line of just .278/.355/.381. Lindor did, however, see his home run total jump from 2 to 11 in 2014 and he is just beginning to tap into his potential. Lindor is a wiz defensively with plus range, great hands, a plus arm.
Best Pitcher: 2014 was a complete wash for the Royals Kyle Zimmer. A sore shoulder caused him to miss the start of the season and a strained lat muscles limited him to just 10.2 IP. Zimmer did work effectively in relief for Omaha Storm Chasers as they successfully defended their Triple-A crown. When healthy Zimmer features a plus 92-96 mph fastball, slider, curve, and change-up. He has a career Cmd ratio of 3.9 to go along with an 11.0 Dom rate. If Zimmer proves healthy and effective in the AFL, he should compete for a rotation spot next spring.
Sleeper Prospect: Justin O’Conner (C, TAM) had a mini breakout in 2014, hitting a career high .278 with 35 doubles and 12 home runs, earning him a spot on the U.S. Futures Game roster. O’Conner has always been regarded as one of the best defensive backstops in the minors, but concerns about his ability to hit keep him being considered an impact prospect. O’Conner still has below-average plate discipline (0.16 Eye) but has good power potential and held his own when moved up to Double-A.
Issues to Watch: As the Kansas City Royals looked poised to make the post-season for the first time since 1985, their long-term prospects continue to look up. The Royals are sending five of their top seven prospects to the AFL and all five—Mondesi, Zimmer, Dozier, Starling, and Almonte—started the year on the HQ 100. While the Fab Five have tremendous long-term potential, all of them have work to do in the AFL. Almonte regressed a bit in his first taste of High-A and missed time due to a sore elbow. Dozier had a solid follow-up to his 2013 breakout, but saw his OPS drop from .892 to .719 and he looked over-matched at Double-A. Starling has all kind of potential but hit just .218 with 150 whiffs in 482 High-A AB and Mondesi hit just .211 with 24 BB/122 K at High-A. All five were young for the level they played at, but at some point potential needs to translate into success on the field and the AFL has been an excellent proving ground in the past.