Inflation/Deflation Report: June 4, 2024

Pictured: Owen Caissie (OF, CHC)

Our minors team will be evaluating prospects every other week throughout the baseball season. They will provide updates on some of the risers and fallers, along with providing injury updates and promotions/demotions.

 

INFLATION

Owen Caissie (OF, CHC) continues to dominate at Triple-A, hitting .350/.422/.525 over his past 10 games. The Chicago Cubs offense was dreadful in May, when they had a team OPS of just .634, the 3rd worst in baseball over that stretch. As the club looks for answers, Caissie looks ready for his MLB debut. The 21-year-old has a professional approach and while he does have swing-and-miss tendencies, he also draws plenty of walks. On the year, he is hitting .302/.392/.467 with 13 doubles, 4 home runs, and 35 walks in 179 AB for AAA-Iowa.

Logan Evans (RHP, SEA) has possibly been the biggest breakout prospect in all of the minors in 2024. He was a 12^th round pick in the 2023 draft from Pittsburgh and wasn’t found on many – if any – top prospect lists. The 22-year-old wasn’t even listed in the 2024 Minor League Baseball Analyst. It is entirely possible that Evans could appear in the majors before the end of this season. He has started 10 games – all in Double-A – and hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start. He has posted a 1.23 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 while holding hitters to a .188 oppBA in 51.1 innings. The Mariners have been very pleased with the increase in velocity. In college, he mostly sat in the low 90s, but he’s tweaked his arm action and now works mostly between 93-96 mph with a few 97-98 mixed in. His sweeping slider has evolved into a plus offering while his cutter is another solid pitch. Once his curveball and change-up become more consistent, Evans could become a solid #3 type starter for Seattle.

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Tink Hence (RHP, STL) continues to emerge as one of the best pitching prospects in the NL. He has a plus four-pitch mix highlighted by a heater that tops at 99, an above-average slider, and a plus change-up. In his last two starts, the 21-year-old righty has punched out 22 batters over 12 innings and for the year has a 2.76 ERA with 14 BB/59 K in 45.2 IP for AA-Springfield. With Steven Matz on the IL and struggling when healthy, there is a path for Hence to make his big-league debut sometime soon.

Luke Keaschall (2B/CF, MIN) hasn’t necessarily expanded his game or done anything that he normally doesn’t do. He has added a touch more loft to his stroke and is showing a bit more pop, but he just continues to showcase his exceptional natural hitting skills. The 21-year-old was recently promoted to Double-A, where the quality offensive output persists. Keaschall, a right-handed hitter, was a 2^nd round pick out of Arizona State and is batting .334/.452/.528 with 7 HR and 15 SB in 178 AB.  He has a very professional approach (31 walks) while leveraging his contact ability to the extreme. He rarely strikes out (32 strikeouts) and uses the entire field with his controlled, line drive stroke. There isn’t a situation or pitch he can’t handle with the stick. Though he only has average power potential at best, he can shoot the gaps and has enough bat speed to project some pull side pop. Keaschall is a good runner with advanced baserunning instincts. The Twins have used him at both CF and 2B to increase his versatility. 

Kevin McGonigle (INF, DET) has a similar profile to Keaschall, albeit with less experience. Only 19, the left-handed hitter epitomizes the type of plate approach the new Tigers front office covets. He was a supplemental first round pick in 2023 out of a Pennsylvania high school and his hit tool may be as advanced as any his age. In his short pro career, he’s walked more than he’s fanned (37 to 26) and his impeccable feel for the barrel and the strike zone give him high BA potential. For the year in Low-A, he’s batting .358/.449/.519 with 2 HR and 9 SB in 106 AB. There is hope that he’ll eventually grow into more power as he makes hard contact and gets the meaty part of the bat on the ball consistently. McGonigle is splitting his defensive time between both middle infield spots, though the long-term projection has him at 2B due to his average range and arm. 

Brandon Sproat (RHP, NYM) continues to be undervalued, but is a name to keep an eye on. After a standout career at the University of Florida that included an impressive run in the College World Series last year, he lasted until the 56th overall pick in the 2023 draft. The 23-year-old is already making High-A/Double-A look easy. On the year, he is 3-1 with a sparkling 1.23 ERA to go along with 22 BB/63 K in 51.1 IP. He does occasionally struggle with command, but with the Mets sporting an MLB worst 5.03 ERA over the past month, it would not be shocking to see Sproat in the majors before the end of the year.

 

DEFLATION

Spencer Jones (OF, NYY) has the look of a potential offensive juggernaut with major size (6’6”, 235 pounds), strength, and a vicious, uppercut stroke. Add in plus athleticism and the 23-year-old has immense upside. That hasn’t translated well to Double-A in 2024. In 154 AB, the left-handed slugger is batting .227/.318/.344 with 3 HR and 13 SB. Most worrisome is his continued inability to make contact – 61 strikeouts. Adding to his woes is a paltry .170/.282/.220 batting line in 100 AB in May. Much more was expected of the Yankees' first round pick in 2022 after a 2023 campaign split between High-A and Double-A, when he smashed 16 HR and stole 43 bases. His bat speed is among the best in the organization and he has decent knowledge of the strike zone. Some are attributing his struggles to difficulties with catching up to good fastballs up in the zone. This may require a change in approach as his hit tool always lagged behind his other sound attributes. Jones is a good defensive CF with ample range and a strong arm. He also runs very well for a player his size. Ranked #68 in the preseason HQ100, he’ll need to turn the corner in order to stick on that list. 

Ty Madden (RHP, DET) began the 2024 season where he pitched the entirety of 2023 – Double-A. He was very good in the second half of 2023 and some forecasted the 24-year-old to reach the majors at some point in 2024. While that may still be true, the sheen has faded a bit, particularly over the last month. Promoted to Triple-A in late April – he posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 4 Double-A starts – he hasn’t shown much in his first five starts at the advanced level. Madden has allowed batters to hit .319 oppBA while posting a 10.38 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, and 9.4 K/9. The performances are as divergent as anyone in baseball this year. His success previously has been predicated on a nasty fastball/slider combo with three other secondaries mixed in. Scouts still praise his improved sequencing, but his erratic change-up hasn’t been as crisp since his promotion. Madden has been able to maintain his velocity gains (94-96 mph fastball) while featuring a wipeout slider. The inconsistency in his overall command has been his bugaboo due primarily to his irregular delivery and arm slot. He still has a good shot at pitching in the majors this year, but he’ll need more time. 

Ethan Salas (C, SD) made a huge splash last year, climbing three levels in 2023 despite being just 17 (he turned 18 on June 1, 2024). The Padres' aggressiveness looks like it might have backfired, and on the year, Salas is hitting .193/.304/.286 in 161 AB for High-A Fort Wayne. He is still one of the youngest players at High-A, but he also continues to look over-matched.

Victor Scott II (OF, STL) continues to struggle after making a splash in his MLB debut. Since being demoted, he is hitting just .200/.299/.312 in 125 AB in Triple-A. He does have 15 SB but will need to make more contact for that plus, plus speed to make him an everyday regular. 

 

INJURY UPDATES

Roman Anthony (OF, BOS) hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but hasn’t been in the lineup since May 25 due to a ribcage issue. 

Sam Bachman (RHP, LAA) is on a rehab assignment in the rookie level ACL after shoulder surgery. 

Chase DeLauter (OF, CLE) can’t seem to stay healthy. He recently returned quicker than anticipated after breaking his foot. Upon his return, the #32 ranked prospect in the HQ100 sprained his toe and is considered day-to-day.

Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) is on rehab assignment after recovery from Tommy John surgery. He was recently moved from Low-A to Double-A to get him back in game shape. 

Colt Emerson (SS, SEA) will be out four-to-six weeks due to a small fracture in his foot. He was ranked #69 on the HQ100.

Dillon Head (OF, MIA) was placed on the injured list due to an adductor injury. He was acquired from the Padres in the Luis Arraez deal.

Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) was activated from the injured list and is pitching in High-A. He missed time due to an oblique injury.

Cade Horton (RPH, CHC) is on the IL for AAA-Iowa with a strained lat muscle. The injury isn’t considered serious but will certainly put the brakes on talk of him joining the Cubs anytime soon.

Walker Jenkins (OF, MIN) is back after missing several weeks due to a hamstring strain. He is on rehab assignment in the rookie level FCL. 

Jackson Jobe (RHP, DET) is expected to return soon after missing several weeks of action due to a hamstring strain. 

Jordan Lawlar (SS, ARI) is back in action after missing a month with a torn tendon in his thumb. While he has been injury prone since being taken with the 6th overall pick in 2021, he is still just 21 and has tremendous upside.

Brooks Lee (INF, MIN) is currently on a rehab assignment in Low-A and is expected back in Triple-A very soon.

Bryan Mata (RHP, BOS) returned after missing time due to a hamstring issue. He started one game each in the FCL, Low-A, and Double-A. He could be a rotation option for the Red Sox later in the season. However, he was returned to the injured list with an unspecified ailment.

Yohandy Morales (3B, WAS) was placed on the 7-day injured list due to a thumb injury. 

Owen Murphy (RHP, ATL) has shown flashes of dominance, but will be out for over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Tekoah Roby (RHP, STL) was placed on the 7-day injured list due to an unspecified injury. 

Cayden Wallace (3B, KC) was placed on the 7-day injured list after experiencing right side tightness.

James Wood (OF, WAS) is expected to make a splash with the Nationals at some point in 2024. That won’t be any time soon, however, after being placed on the injured list with hamstring tightness.

 

PROMOTIONS / DEMOTIONS

Tyler Locklear (1B, SEA) ascended to Triple-A and could be counted on to provide some offensive juice to a relatively moribund lineup in Seattle this year. He is hitting .291/.401/.532 with 8 HR this year. 

Adam Mazur (RHP, SD) will make his MLB debut on Tuesday, June 4. The 23-year-old has an average fastball that sits in the 92-94 range from a high ¾ arm slot, but also has a plus mid-80s slider that generates plenty of swing-and-miss, and an improved change-up. On the year, he is 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA with 9 BB/50 K in 51.1 IP.

Noble Meyer (RHP, MIA) was the 10^th overall pick by Miami in 2023 and is now in High-A. He held hitters to a .149 oppBA in Low-A. 

Luis Perales (RHP, BOS) has a very light frame but can fire his elite 94-97 mph fastball into the zone. He threw five shutout innings in his first Double-A start after a promotion from High-A. He posted a 15.7 K/9 at the lower level.

Noah Schultz (LHP, CHW) is a towering 6’9” lefty and was recently elevated from High-A to Double-A. He fanned 42 batters in 27 innings while posting a 3.45 ERA. 

Chandler Simpson (SS, TAM) is an exciting prospect who recently moved from High-A to Double-A. Mostly known for his speed and ability to make contact, the 23-year-old stole 94 bases in 2023 and is up to 31 this season. 

Blade Tidwell (RHP, NYM) is now in Triple-A after a 2.41 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, and 10.6 K/9 in Double-A. He was the #8 prospect in the Mets organization and a 2^nd round pick in 2022.

Hurston Waldrep (RHP, ATL) was a teammate with Sproat at Florida and has been even more dominant. He made his Triple-A debut on June 2 and on the year is 3-5 with a 3.09 ERA with 18 BB/59 K in 55.1 IP. His heater tops out at 99 mph to go along with an above-average slider, but it’s his plus to double plus splitter that allows him to thrive. 

Andrew Walters (RHP, CLE) is a fast-rising reliever who was a 2^nd round pick in 2023. A former college closer, the 23-year-old had a 1.35 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, and incredible 17.1 K/9 in Double-A. 

Thomas White (LHP, MIA) was the second first round pick of the Marlins in 2023 and is joining Meyer in High-A. He posted a 3.18 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, and 11.7 K/9 in Low-A. He has big upside with the potential for three plus pitches as a 19-year-old.

Matt Wilkinson (LHP, CLE) was promoted from Low-A to High-A. He only has an 89-91 mph fastball and has a very large 270 pound frame, but he maximizes his weapons. He accumulated 71 strikeouts in only 40 innings at Low-A. 

 

 

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