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RESEARCH: Hidden Splits Reveal Surprising Power Potential
May 18 2011
When forecasting baseball player performance, it is a widely accepted truth that the recent past is the most reliable indicator of what will happen in the near future. Most proprietary projection models are designed around this principle, believing that more years of data will yield stronger baselines and that more complex inputs will deliver higher precision. However, dropping these kinds of statistical anchors means that we will never stray very far from the safety of known land, and it makes it difficult for us to see -- and nearly impossible to fully explore -- more than a few miles from where we are now.
In this article, we will largely free ourselves from the weight of these anchors and venture into uncharted statistical waters....
Almost!
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