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RESEARCH: Expected WHIP
Mar 14 2019
Introduction
When a pitcher experiences good or bad luck with regard to hit rate, Expected ERA (xERA) takes this into account, along with a number of other factors, to determine what a pitcher’s ERA ought to have been. But what about WHIP? Hit rate luck plays a part in both the numerator (hits) and denominator (outs). How much does it impact WHIP?
Methodology
We’ll use pitcher seasons from 2002-2018 with 120 IP or more. We’ll develop a mathematical model for xWHIP and then evaluate its usefulness in predicting regression and future performance.
The Math Part
We are going to start this article not with data, but with some math. We should be able to calculate Expected WHIP directly, given “expected” values for all the input. If...
Almost!
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