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RESEARCH: Deserved home runs, pt 1
Dec 22 2016
Introduction
The Forecaster’s Toolbox defines "Errant Gust of Wind":
A unit of measure used to describe the difference between your home run projection and mine.
While somewhat droll, this definition also contains the core truth: Good or back luck contributes an outsized amount to baseball outcomes in general, and batted ball outcomes in particular. Of perhaps the most interest is the binary outcome that causes the largest swing of all: the home run.
Fortunately, today every batted ball is measured and the results are publicly available via Statcast. Using the two years of batted ball data, we can compare what actually happened to what should have happened. With particular focus on home runs, not only can we measure park factors more...
Almost!
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