RESEARCH: Starting pitcher ball-strike counts, part 1
Dec 20 2013
The toolbox we use to analyze and forecast the performance of starting pitchers has evolved significantly over the years.
To assemble a really good starting rotation, we know not to target guys based on surface stats like wins and ERA. Instead, we use measures like Ctl (BB/9), Dom (K/9), and groundball rate (GB%).
We also know to discount pitchers with low hit rates (H%) and low home runs per flyball rates (hr/f) because research has shown that those marks tend to regress to consistent levels. As those low marks increase, their ERAs and WHIPs will rise.
One area that has received little attention involves the ball-strike counts that pitchers encounter during a plate appearance and how those counts can impact pitching results.
Here, we...
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