RESEARCH: Busting the prospect myth, part 4
Nov 1 2012
Over the last three weeks, these Research & Analysis columns have attempted to demonstrate that even the top prospects in baseball’s farm leagues are inherently very risky. And just as important, the widespread belief that prospects solid value and profit early enough in their careers to benefit fantasy teams is a myth.
We first looked at all the prospects in the Baseball America Top-100 lists from 2002-10, then at prospects by where they were originally drafted.
In general, we found that prospects fail to deliver value, and often take years to do so—longer than their fantasy owners can wait. While the elite picks are better bets, they are still coin flips to provide value and profit.
But there’s one more parameter to consider....
Almost!
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