(*) HEAD-TO-HEAD: Consistency series, part I—2014 draft values

Head-To-Head

David Martin

Feb 10 2014 12:03am

(*) HEAD-TO-HEAD: Consistency series, part I—2014 draft values

David Martin

Feb 10 2014

Introduction

Welcome to Part I of BaseballHQ.com’s 2014 consistency series. Our goal is to provide you with the ability to find players who, week in and week out, will have the most consistent production this season. While it is not too difficult to find consistent players at the top of your draft, Part I of our three-part series focuses on where you can find 2014 draft values. We also highlight those players that are better suited for the rotisserie game.

Quality-Consistency Scores

Quality-consistency scores (QC scores) provide us with a convenient measurement of how consistent a player is. The formula is: (DOM% - (2 x DIS%)) x 2. A player earns a DOMinant week if his BPV is greater than or equal to 50. A player achieves a DISaster if his BPV is less than 0 for a given week. A week where a player’s BPV is between 0 and 49 is neutral. Players are scored on a scale of 200 (perfect) to -400.

2013’s Elite QC Scores

Below is a list of all players with 6 or more weeks of playing time who had a 2013 QC score of 100 or greater:

NAME          DOM%   DIS%   NEUT%   QC
========      ====   ====   =====   ==
A. Pagan       79%     0%    21%    158
E. Encarnacion 84%     8%    8%     136
M. Holliday    68%     0%    32%    136
J. Votto       67%     0%    33%    134
J. Bautista    71%     5%    24%    122
M. Prado       67%     4%    30%    118
C. Santana     67%     4%    30%    118
I. Kinsler     75%     8%    17%    118
D. Wright      67%     5%    29%    114
C. Davis       78%     11%   11%    112
J. Lowrie      69%     8%    23%    106
M. Trout       74%     11%   15%    104
Y. Grandal     50%     0%    50%    100

A complete list of 2013 QC scores can be found here.

That is not a mistake at the top of the list. Angel Pagan (OF, SF) was fantasy baseball’s most consistent performer in 2013. His three-year record of QC scores (74-58-158) suggest that while he may not duplicate his 2013 score this year, he is still is likely to provide late-round consistent value.

Interestingly, consistent production at the top fell off in 2013. In 2011, there were 20 players with QC scores over 100. In 2012, there were 19 players with QC scores over 100. In 2013, just 13 players met this elite threshold. It will be interesting to see whether 2013 proves to be an aberration.

Demographically, fantasy baseball's most consistent performers are generally older players. The average age on the above chart is 29.6. Nine of the thirteen players listed are 30 or older. While fantasy players have a tendency to reach for the shiny new toy on the block, this list suggests (not surprisingly) that experience yields more consistent performance.

2014 Value-Based QC Strategy

When approaching your 2014 drafts, pay particular attention to those players that offer more consistent performances in the later draft rounds. Typically, the players available in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft offer inconsistent head-to-head production. Teams that drafted consistent performers early can destroy their team's otherwise consistent nucleus by drafting inconsistent players late. Focus on QC scores as the draft progresses so that your team does not suffer the same fate.

There are many diamonds in the rough to be mined through our 2013 QC scores. And the best way of doing so is to look at which consistent players provide the best values based on their 2014 NFBC average draft positions (ADP).

Please note that all rounds referenced below are based on a standard twelve team head-to-head league.

Catchers                                                       

Rank    Player        Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ========      ====    ========    ==
1       B. Posey      SF      39.25       82
2       C. Santana    CLE     66.17       118
3       W. Rosario    COL     67.67      -24
4       Y. Molina     STL     68.42       38
5       J. Mauer      MIN     69.08       18
6       B. McCann     NYY     83          18
7       S. Perez      KC      84.92      -8
8       J. Lucroy     MIL     88.75       68
9       M. Wieters    BAL     97.5        16
10      E. Gattis     ATL     114.92      32
11      W. Ramos      WAS     149.17      54
12      J. Castro     HOU     154.67      34
13      A. Pierzynski BOS     196.08     -8
14      J. Saltalam.  MIA     207.67      0
15      Y. Gomes      CLE     219.5      -24
16      M. Montero    ARI     229.5      -16
17      R. Doumit     ATL     240.58     -148
18      C. Ruiz       PHI     240.83     -86
19      R. Martin     PIT     261.75     -64
20      T. d'Arnaud   NYM     272.83     -86