STARTERS: Gambles

Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.

Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.

We'll take a look at many indicators to help you identify those who might not warrant a bid at full value.

We'll do this by putting them into the following groups:

• ERA outliers in 2012
• Skill faders from 2011 to 2012
• Those who were helped by a fortunate H%, S%, or HR/F in 2012
• Skill faders from 2012 first half to second half

Again, there is a lot of data here, so feel free to jump to the section that interests you the most. We'll synthesize some of the key takeaways in the...

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