(*) STARTERS: BPV vs. LH/RH, 2016 updated
Aug 14 2016
In the hunt? BaseballHQ.com can help you snag the title. Unlock all of our insights like these for the rest of the season: Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com.
Identifying significant SP skill splits and using them to your advantage can be a helpful strategy to get the most out of your starting rotation down the stretch.
In addition, this kind of analysis can help you find hidden skills before they blossom, which can be a big help for those already looking ahead to 2017.
Here, let's take a look at the SP with the widest lefty-righty BPV splits so far in 2016.
First, the SP who own the best skills against RH bats:
-
100+ BPV vs. RH Bats* Name League Throws Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% hr/f BPV ================== ====== ====== === ==== ==== === === === ==== === Fernandez, Jose NL RHP 1.4 15.3 0.7 33% 35% 72% 10% 248 Scherzer, Max NL RHP 0.5 12.4 1.3 34% 20% 66% 15% 221 Phelps, David NL RHP 1.7 12.9 0.5 42% 32% 83% 6% 205 Nola, Aaron NL RHP 1.4 10.8 0.6 55% 40% 61% 11% 191 Kershaw, Clayton NL LHP 0.7 9.8 0.6 50% 27% 77% 9% 187 Syndergaard, Noah NL RHP 1.2 10.1 0.5 55% 31% 78% 9% 183 Teheran, Julio NL RHP 0.9 9.7 0.9 45% 28% 76% 11% 173 Maeda, Kenta NL RHP 1.4 10.1 0.9 46% 31% 66% 11% 168 Kluber, Corey AL RHP 1.6 9.4 0.7 48% 27% 66% 9% 152 Pineda, Michael AL RHP 2.0 10.2 1.7 45% 34% 59% 19% 152 Strasburg, Stephen NL RHP 2.2 10.7 0.8 38% 31% 74% 9% 150 Anderson, Tyler NL LHP 1.1 7.9 1.1 57% 33% 71% 16% 146 deGrom, Jacob NL RHP 2.0 9.6 1.1 48% 32% 83% 14% 145 Paxton, James AL LHP 1.5 8.7 0.7 48% 37% 72% 8% 142 Hellickson, Jeremy NL RHP 1.0 7.8 1.2 49% 26% 64% 16% 141 Arrieta, Jake NL RHP 1.8 8.7 0.6 55% 26% 69% 10% 140 Martinez, Carlos NL RHP 2.0 8.7 0.3 59% 26% 76% 4% 140 Shoemaker, Matt AL RHP 2.0 9.5 1.4 45% 36% 73% 14% 139 Fulmer, Michael AL RHP 2.1 9.4 1.3 49% 28% 78% 16% 138 Ross, Joe AL RHP 1.2 7.9 0.8 49% 26% 63% 12% 138 Wood, Alex NL LHP 2.4 9.7 0.8 51% 31% 81% 14% 138 Eickhoff, Jerad NL RHP 1.6 8.9 1.0 43% 31% 74% 11% 138 Ramirez, Erasmo AL RHP 1.2 7.3 1.0 59% 30% 72% 15% 135 Price, David AL LHP 2.3 9.7 1.1 44% 34% 67% 15% 135 Lackey, John AL RHP 1.8 9.4 1.4 36% 23% 67% 15% 134 Duffy, Danny AL LHP 2.0 9.8 1.2 31% 28% 76% 11% 131 McHugh, Collin AL RHP 1.9 9.1 1.2 40% 37% 72% 11% 130 Bumgarner, Madison NL LHP 2.3 9.6 1.0 40% 28% 86% 11% 128 Hill, Rich AL LHP 4.3 12.4 0.3 42% 33% 81% 4% 127 Archer, Chris AL RHP 3.2 10.4 1.4 47% 33% 75% 17% 126 Matz, Steven NL LHP 2.3 9.1 1.1 45% 33% 77% 14% 125 Pomeranz, Drew AL LHP 3.6 10.7 1.2 50% 27% 73% 15% 125 Kennedy, Ian AL RHP 2.5 9.6 1.6 40% 29% 80% 16% 124 Porcello, Rick AL RHP 1.4 7.5 1.4 47% 29% 66% 16% 122 Cueto, Johnny NL RHP 1.7 7.8 0.7 48% 27% 72% 8% 122 Feldman, Scott AL RHP 0.9 6.9 0.9 43% 30% 59% 10% 122 Stroman, Marcus AL RHP 1.8 7.2 0.9 60% 30% 71% 16% 121 Gray, Jon NL RHP 2.5 9.3 1.0 44% 31% 64% 13% 120 Norris, Bud AL RHP 2.1 8.3 0.6 48% 29% 68% 7% 119 Roark, Tanner NL RHP 1.9 7.7 0.8 55% 33% 71% 14% 119 Verlander, Justin AL RHP 2.1 8.7 1.2 39% 28% 68% 11% 117 Young, Chris AL RHP 2.1 8.9 2.1 35% 26% 65% 16% 117 Nova, Ivan NL RHP 2.3 8.0 1.9 57% 31% 66% 25% 116 Ray, Robbie NL LHP 3.7 10.9 1.4 43% 38% 72% 16% 116 Harvey, Matt NL RHP 1.8 7.4 0.8 53% 34% 67% 12% 116 Hammel, Jason NL RHP 1.5 7.3 0.9 47% 24% 85% 11% 115 Walker, Taijuan AL RHP 2.1 8.0 1.2 46% 37% 74% 13% 113 Colon, Bartolo NL RHP 1.1 6.2 0.5 52% 33% 77% 8% 112 Sale, Chris AL LHP 2.2 8.6 1.0 38% 27% 76% 10% 111 Andriese, Matt AL RHP 1.5 7.1 0.6 46% 28% 65% 6% 111 Gausman, Kevin AL RHP 2.5 8.5 2.2 48% 34% 73% 26% 110 Kazmir, Scott NL LHP 3.5 10.5 1.6 37% 33% 71% 17% 110 Peavy, Jake NL RHP 2.3 8.3 1.4 44% 32% 63% 13% 109 Wisler, Matt NL RHP 1.5 7.6 1.8 35% 29% 69% 14% 109 Velasquez, Vincent NL RHP 2.9 9.6 1.0 36% 31% 76% 10% 109 Carrasco, Carlos AL RHP 2.2 7.6 1.3 52% 23% 69% 16% 109 Nicasio, Juan NL RHP 3.3 9.8 0.4 42% 29% 62% 4% 109 Lester, Jon NL LHP 2.6 8.6 1.4 45% 26% 79% 16% 106 Nolasco, Ricky AL RHP 1.9 7.4 1.8 45% 34% 57% 16% 106 Straily, Dan NL RHP 1.9 8.1 1.2 32% 25% 78% 10% 105 Tomlin, Josh NL RHP 1.4 7.0 1.8 37% 33% 71% 16% 105 Santana, Ervin AL RHP 1.9 7.9 1.3 35% 33% 71% 11% 104 DeSclafani, Anthony NL RHP 2.7 8.6 0.3 44% 24% 79% 4% 104 Leake, Mike NL RHP 1.2 5.9 0.8 52% 34% 60% 10% 104 Foltynewicz, Mike NL RHP 2.1 7.4 1.2 50% 31% 77% 14% 103 Hendricks, Kyle NL RHP 2.5 7.7 0.8 53% 24% 75% 11% 102 Gee, Dillon AL RHP 2.1 7.6 1.9 44% 32% 78% 18% 102 Tanaka, Masahiro AL RHP 2.2 7.6 1.0 47% 30% 70% 12% 101 Davies, Zach NL RHP 2.3 7.4 0.9 53% 27% 67% 12% 101 Guerra, Junior NL RHP 2.0 7.2 0.8 45% 25% 70% 8% 100 Bradley, Archie NL RHP 3.3 9.2 0.9 43% 27% 59% 10% 100 *min 30 IP
Next, the guys with the best skills vs. LH bats:
-
100+ BPV vs. LH Bats* Name League Throws Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% hr/f BPV ================== ====== ====== === ==== ==== === === === ==== === Kershaw, Clayton NL LHP 0.6 13.7 0.0 48% 29% 83% 0% 256 McCullers, Lance AL RHP 4.2 14.6 0.5 59% 46% 81% 13% 184 Ray, Robbie NL LHP 2.1 11.2 0.5 56% 37% 68% 11% 178 Syndergaard, Noah NL RHP 2.9 12.2 0.7 46% 43% 80% 10% 165 Strasburg, Stephen NL RHP 2.9 11.3 0.9 44% 26% 79% 11% 146 Duffey, Tyler AL RHP 1.4 8.0 0.9 52% 35% 71% 13% 137 Pineda, Michael AL RHP 3.4 11.5 1.2 44% 37% 72% 16% 136 Cueto, Johnny NL RHP 2.0 8.8 0.7 52% 34% 78% 10% 134 Keuchel, Dallas AL LHP 1.4 7.2 0.6 62% 29% 74% 10% 133 Greinke, Zack AL RHP 1.5 8.1 1.2 49% 33% 73% 15% 132 Tanaka, Masahiro AL RHP 1.1 7.2 0.7 50% 29% 77% 10% 127 Price, David AL LHP 1.4 7.5 0.9 51% 35% 74% 12% 126 Odorizzi, Jake AL RHP 2.4 9.6 1.1 41% 24% 85% 12% 125 Quintana, Jose AL LHP 1.3 7.1 0.5 53% 26% 73% 7% 125 Verlander, Justin AL RHP 2.8 10.4 0.9 32% 28% 76% 9% 123 Gausman, Kevin AL RHP 1.9 8.9 1.0 33% 30% 80% 9% 119 Cole, Gerrit NL RHP 2.8 9.8 0.2 40% 40% 82% 2% 119 Salazar, Danny AL RHP 3.4 10.4 1.0 43% 28% 74% 12% 116 Archer, Chris AL RHP 3.7 10.6 1.3 45% 31% 69% 17% 114 Kluber, Corey AL RHP 2.5 8.8 0.6 44% 29% 73% 8% 113 Nicasio, Juan AL RHP 3.8 10.6 2.4 44% 40% 72% 25% 111 Porcello, Rick AL RHP 1.6 7.4 0.7 43% 28% 77% 7% 110 Fernandez, Jose AL RHP 4.0 10.5 0.7 48% 34% 79% 12% 109 Walker, Taijuan AL RHP 1.9 8.0 2.5 40% 18% 77% 22% 109 deGrom, Jacob AL RHP 2.0 7.6 0.4 45% 28% 80% 5% 107 Devenski, Chris AL RHP 2.4 8.9 0.5 33% 31% 76% 6% 107 Leake, Mike NL RHP 1.7 6.6 1.6 55% 29% 72% 23% 107 Gray, Jon NL RHP 3.3 9.5 1.1 45% 28% 70% 15% 106 Carrasco, Carlos AL RHP 3.2 9.4 1.5 44% 28% 88% 18% 105 Tomlin, Josh AL RHP 1.0 5.8 1.9 48% 24% 80% 20% 104 Hendricks, Kyle AL RHP 2.2 7.4 0.5 50% 27% 91% 7% 102 Fiers, Mike AL RHP 1.7 6.9 1.3 44% 30% 65% 16% 100 Bauer, Trevor AL RHP 2.8 8.9 0.7 37% 32% 70% 7% 100 *min 30 IP
Finally, here are the SP with the widest skill splits when facing RH and LH bats:
-
BPV vs. RH/LH Bats* Name League Throws BPV vs. RH BPV vs. LH Diff ================== ====== ====== ========== ========== ==== Teheran, Julio NL RHP 173 34 -139 Fernandez, Jose NL RHP 248 109 -138 Scherzer, Max NL RHP 221 98 -123 Straily, Dan NL RHP 105 -18 -123 Martinez, Carlos NL RHP 140 26 -114 Miller, Shelby NL RHP 77 -36 -113 Maeda, Kenta NL RHP 168 57 -110 Ross, Joe NL RHP 138 30 -108 Bradley, Archie NL RHP 100 -2 -102 Buchholz, Clay NL RHP 62 -39 -101 Hellickson, Jeremy NL RHP 141 41 -100 Nola, Aaron NL RHP 191 95 -96 Wisler, Matt NL RHP 109 22 -88 Peavy, Jake NL RHP 109 24 -85 Fulmer, Michael AL RHP 138 55 -83 Norris, Bud NL RHP 119 37 -82 Gee, Dillon NL RHP 102 21 -81 Pomeranz, Drew AL LHP 125 44 -81 Hammel, Jason NL RHP 115 35 -80 Hernandez, Felix AL RHP 99 20 -80 Nelson, Jimmy NL RHP 72 2 -70 Arrieta, Jake NL RHP 140 74 -66 Kennedy, Ian NL RHP 124 59 -65 Eickhoff, Jerad NL RHP 138 73 -65 Roark, Tanner NL RHP 119 56 -63 Lewis, Colby AL RHP 98 37 -61 Rea, Colin NL RHP 75 15 -60 Chacin, Jhoulys AL RHP 90 32 -58 Harvey, Matt NL RHP 116 59 -57 Guerra, Junior NL RHP 100 47 -53 Tropeano, Nick AL RHP 88 36 -53 Lackey, John NL RHP 134 81 -53 Finnegan, Brandon NL LHP 25 -26 -52 ---------------------------------------------------------------- McCullers, Lance AL RHP 47 184 +137 Verrett, Logan NL RHP -16 60 +76 Kershaw, Clayton NL LHP 187 256 +69 Duffey, Tyler AL RHP 68 137 +69 Ray, Robbie NL LHP 116 178 +62 Odorizzi, Jake AL RHP 65 125 +61 Bauer, Trevor AL RHP 41 100 +58 Cole, Gerrit NL RHP 68 119 +50 Gray, Sonny AL RHP 49 98 +49 Locke, Jeff NL LHP 15 60 +46 Keuchel, Dallas AL LHP 91 133 +42 Greinke, Zack NL RHP 96 132 +36 Fiers, Mike AL RHP 67 100 +33 Cain, Matt NL RHP 33 65 +32 Quintana, Jose AL LHP 97 125 +29 Tanaka, Masahiro AL RHP 101 127 +26 *min 30 IP vs. LH, RH bats
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chris Devenski (RHP, HOU) is someone worth keeping an eye on if you play in a deep league. While he hasn't started a game for HOU since May, his skills in the second half suggest he could stick as a SP once he gets another shot: 21/3 K/BB in 20 IP. Behind that flash of elite command is a strong 14% SwK% and 67% FpK%. He also has posted very nice aggregate skills against LH bats: 8.9 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 33% GB%, 107 BPV.
Tyler Duffey (RHP, MIN) still carries surface stats that would damage any fantasy rotation (5.93 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). That said, he has looked excellent in a tiny two-start sample so far in August: 14/1 K/BB in 12 IP with a 13% SwK% and 72% FpK%. Digging deeper, Duffey has been able to handcuff lefty bats (137 BPV) but hasn't fared that well against righties (68 BPV). A tweak there could help him stick as a mid-rotation guy.
Danny Duffy (LHP, KC) has emerged as an upper-tier SP since re-entering the KC rotation in May, and he hasn't done so by feasting only on LH bats. His skills have been excellent against RHers too: 9.8 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 31% GB%, 131 BPV. Adding a groundball pitch to his repertoire is the last piece he needs to stick as an impact SP.
Kevin Gausman (RHP, BAL) has posted a 110+ BPV against both LH and RH bats so far in 2016. And his surface stats against lefties have been ace-like (2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). Those marks have eroded a lot against RHers (5.19 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), but that has been due to an inflated 26% hr/f more than anything else. As that mark comes down, so too will his ERA.
Félix Hernández (RHP, SEA) used to be a sure-fire rotation anchor worth starting every time he took the ball. This season, not so much. His skills have been terrible against LHers: 6.7 Dom, 4.8 Ctl, 53% GB%, 20 BPV. The only reason he has a 3.02 ERA against them has been due to a friendly 82% S%, which we can't bank on continuing. And his prior dominance against righties is on shaky footing too, as his skills against them are more good than great (99 BPV). The window to sell high on Hernandez in keeper leagues is closing quickly.
Lance McCullers (RHP, HOU) quietly has put up the best skills against LH bats by anyone not named Kershaw: 14.6 Dom, 4.2 Ctl, 59% GB%, 184 BPV. He owns a bad 1.54 WHIP against them due to a crazy 46% H%. With a tweak against same-sided bats (47 BPV), McCullers would gain the consistency needed for him to become an upper-tier SP.
James Paxton (LHP, SEA) is another blossoming SP whose LH/RH splits indicate that he has the goods for long-term success. His skills against opposite-sided batters have been near-elite: 8.7 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 48% GB%, 142 BPV. He'll enter 2017 as a premium breakout target.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Tyler Anderson (LHP, COL) quietly owns a near-3.00 ERA that most owners won't be aware of. And it's a mark that comes with nearly full skill support (115 BPV, 3.46 xERA). In addition, the lefty Anderson has been pretty lethal against RH bats: 7.9 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 57% GB%, 146 BPV. As a GB pitcher who can miss bats, Anderson remains a good end-rotation option in deep leagues.
Archie Bradley (RHP, ARI) has posted bad stats after 16 starts with ARI (4.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). A closer look shows that those are the direct result of terrible stats and skills against lefties: 5.06 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, -2 BPV. His upside starts to come out against RH bats: 9.2 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 43% GB%, 100 BPV.
Iván Nova (RHP, PIT) has a chance to provide some nice value down the stretch. His skills against RHers in 2016 have been very good (116 BPV). He has a 5+ ERA against them solely due to a 25% hr/f, a mark that was likely inflated due to Yankee Stadium.
David Phelps (RHP, MIA) is transitioning to a starting role in the MIA rotation, and before you dismiss his ability to stick there, note that his skills against RHers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Fernandez or Scherzer: 52/7 K/BB in 36 IP. That elite command has produced a 205 BPV. His struggles come against lefties, against whom he has a poor 1.4 Cmd. So, you'll want to sit him against strong lefty lineups, but he makes for a high-upside play against RH-leaning lineups.
Robbie Ray (LHP, ARI) is one of a select number of SP who can claim a 100+ BPV against both LH and RH bats. He has been untouchable against lefties (178 BPV), but he also has been very good against RHers: 10.9 Dom, 3.7 Ctl, 43% GB%, 116 BPV. If he can keep his walks under control, Ray will continue to make for an excellent speculation.
Joe Ross (RHP, WAS) is a step away from starting to fulfill the skill upside that comes out when he faces RH bats (138 BPV). His command erodes him when he faces southpaws: 6.9 Dom, 4.1 Ctl, 39% GB%, 30 BPV. A tweak there would help him show sustained growth. At age 23, he's got time, as long as his shoulder is sound.
Dan Straily (RHP, CIN) has struggled against lefties for years, a weakness that has prevented him from sticking as a viable mid-rotation SP until this season. Problem is, that problem has continued during his mini-breakout this year: 6.0 Dom, 5.1 Ctl, 33% GB%, -18 BPV. His stats (2.91 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) and skills (105 BPV) show life when he faces RH bats, but they aren't good enough to make up for his significant struggles against lefties.
Julio Teheran (RHP, ATL) has completely handcuffed RH bats so far in 2016: 9.7 Dom, 0.9 Ctl, 45% GB%, 173 BPV. On the flip side, his skills vs. LH haven't even been roster-worthy: 6.0 Dom, 3.2 Ctl, 35% GB%, 34 BPV. The only reason he has a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP against them has been due to a friendly 22% H%. Keep that significant split in mind once he returns from the disabled list and faces lineups with impact lefty bats.
More From Starting Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt's huge underlying gains in 2024 make him a premium breakout target heading into 2025.
Sep 7 2024 3:09am
Sep 7 2024 3:09am
Emerging rookie Spencer Schwellenbach was the game's most skilled starting pitcher during August behind a combination of groundballs and whiffs.
Aug 31 2024 3:09am
Aug 31 2024 3:09am
Brayan Bello's crumbling command against lefty bats is preventing him from taking a sustained step forward.
Aug 24 2024 3:09am
Aug 24 2024 3:09am
The recent struggles of Cristopher Sánchez can be traced back to his road starts, where both his stats and skills go from great to bad.
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Brayan Bello's concurrent improvement in swinging strikes and ball percentage in the second half suggests he could deliver improved results down the stretch.
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
