(*) STARTERS: BPV leaders, July 2013
Aug 4 2013
Let's take our monthly look back at the starting pitchers who posted the best skills during the previous month.
Reference our setting the stage column for historical stats and skills by month and league.
Here were the stats and skills posted by starting pitchers in July:
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July 2013 Baselines* League ERA WHIP | Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% | H% S% hr/f | FBv SS% | BPV ====== ==== ==== | === === ==== === | === === ==== | ==== ==== | === AL 3.95 1.31 | 2.9 6.9 1.1 44% | 33% 71% 11% | 91.4 8.3% | 68 NL 3.82 1.30 | 2.9 7.2 0.9 47% | 31% 71% 10% | 91.6 9.0% | 77 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLB 3.89 1.30 | 2.9 7.1 1.0 45% | 32% 71% 11% | 91.5 8.7% | 73 *starting pitchers only
Let's dig deeper into these aggregate stats to find the SP who posted the best skills in July. Some names might surprise you.
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100+ BPV, July 2013* Name League Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% hr/f FBv SS% BPV ================== ====== === ==== ==== === === === ==== ==== ===== === Harvey, Matt NL 1.6 10.3 0.6 50% 31% 77% 9% 96.6 15.4% 170 Lincecum, Tim NL 2.8 12.4 1.7 43% 29% 66% 23% 89.9 13.9% 167 Sale, Chris AL 2.1 10.3 0.9 55% 35% 85% 15% 92.9 12.0% 163 Kershaw, Clayton NL 0.4 8.2 0.4 44% 21% 81% 5% 92.4 13.6% 160 Corbin, Patrick NL 1.8 9.9 0.5 49% 29% 77% 8% 92.5 14.5% 156 Bailey, Homer NL 1.5 9.1 0.9 49% 32% 79% 10% 94.8 12.9% 151 Hernandez, Felix AL 1.2 8.5 0.5 45% 28% 91% 6% 91.9 10.8% 143 Fernandez, Jose NL 2.6 10.3 0.5 47% 23% 79% 10% 95.1 11.8% 141 Scherzer, Max AL 1.6 8.9 0.8 43% 28% 77% 8% 93.8 12.8% 138 Gonzalez, Gio NL 3.1 11.0 1.6 46% 42% 71% 19% 92.8 11.5% 137 Price, David AL 0.2 6.5 1.1 45% 21% 89% 11% 94.1 8.0% 135 Bumgarner, Madison NL 1.9 8.7 0.3 51% 22% 81% 4% 92.0 12.2% 135 Gorzelanny, Tom NL 2.0 8.6 0.8 55% 32% 72% 9% 91.6 10.6% 135 Haren, Dan NL 2.4 10.2 0.8 35% 29% 73% 9% 88.9 11.1% 132 Redmond, Todd AL 3.1 11.3 2.2 31% 24% 76% 16% 90.6 11.2% 131 Iwakuma, Hisashi AL 1.8 8.3 1.6 52% 33% 77% 17% 89.8 10.1% 130 Wainwright, Adam NL 1.5 7.7 0.8 52% 32% 70% 15% 91.5 9.2% 129 Masterson, Justin AL 3.5 9.7 0.0 68% 27% 67% 0% 92.1 8.5% 127 Strasburg, Stephen NL 3.4 10.7 1.2 47% 29% 64% 16% 95.2 11.6% 126 Morton, Charlie NL 1.8 7.7 1.8 58% 33% 75% 33% 93.2 7.5% 125 Johnson, Josh AL 2.8 9.8 2.8 45% 35% 55% 31% 93.0 8.3% 124 Capuano, Chris NL 0.8 7.1 0.8 40% 33% 65% 7% 89.0 10.7% 122 Minor, Mike NL 1.7 8.5 0.4 37% 26% 77% 4% 90.8 11.4% 121 Jordan, Taylor NL 0.9 5.8 0.6 58% 34% 73% 9% 91.8 9.9% 117 Weaver, Jered AL 1.8 8.1 0.2 40% 28% 87% 3% 86.9 10.7% 117 Lackey, John AL 1.7 7.6 1.5 48% 30% 76% 16% 92.2 10.8% 116 Quintana, Jose AL 2.3 8.8 0.7 42% 31% 79% 8% 91.4 10.4% 116 Hellickson, Jeremy AL 2.2 8.3 1.0 48% 32% 75% 11% 91.2 10.4% 115 Burnett, A.J. NL 3.6 9.8 0.0 57% 38% 84% 0% 92.7 10.4% 115 Moore, Matt AL 2.1 8.3 0.5 43% 22% 77% 6% 92.7 11.5% 115 Hamels, Cole NL 1.5 7.7 0.5 39% 30% 78% 5% 91.2 10.3% 115 Zimmermann, Jordan NL 2.1 8.2 2.1 44% 38% 58% 21% 93.6 7.7% 114 Lester, Jon AL 2.3 8.8 1.1 38% 33% 81% 11% 92.7 10.2% 114 Kluber, Corey AL 2.5 8.5 0.7 50% 27% 74% 9% 93.5 9.2% 113 Nova, Ivan AL 2.6 8.4 0.6 51% 25% 82% 10% 93.8 10.6% 110 Buehrle, Mark AL 1.3 6.3 0.8 48% 27% 76% 8% 83.4 9.0% 105 Hudson, Tim NL 2.2 6.8 0.0 61% 29% 69% 0% 90.0 8.1% 104 Griffin, A.J. AL 1.5 7.3 2.7 33% 26% 72% 19% 88.7 8.4% 102 Kuroda, Hiroki AL 1.6 6.6 0.0 51% 27% 94% 0% 92.2 10.7% 102 Lohse, Kyle NL 1.4 6.5 1.4 42% 24% 88% 12% 89.7 6.6% 101 Cole, Gerrit NL 2.3 7.5 0.9 50% 26% 70% 14% 95.5 7.4% 100 Jackson, Edwin NL 1.6 5.8 0.3 61% 24% 79% 5% 92.8 7.9% 100 Latos, Mat NL 4.1 10.4 0.9 45% 39% 72% 12% 93.6 12.0% 100 *min 20 IP
Here were the biggest BPV changers from June to July:
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BPV, July 2013 vs. June 2013* Name League BPV Jun BPV Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ==== Moore, Matt AL -12 115 +126 Guthrie, Jeremy AL -55 52 +107 Lester, Jon AL 20 114 + 94 Lincecum, Tim NL 75 167 + 92 Corbin, Patrick NL 82 156 + 74 Peralta, Wily NL 15 80 + 65 Quintana, Jose AL 58 116 + 57 Archer, Chris AL 17 73 + 56 Weaver, Jered AL 61 117 + 55 Buehrle, Mark AL 54 105 + 51 Chatwood, Tyler NL 19 70 + 51 Fernandez, Jose NL 96 141 + 45 Dickey, R.A. NL 51 92 + 41 Santiago, Hector AL 25 66 + 41 Cole, Gerrit NL 61 100 + 39 Tillman, Chris AL 38 75 + 37 Lynn, Lance NL 54 91 + 37 Saunders, Joe AL 55 92 + 37 Arroyo, Bronson NL 48 81 + 33 Kershaw, Clayton NL 128 160 + 32 Ryu, Hyun-Jin NL 43 74 + 31 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 34 65 + 30 Hudson, Tim NL 75 104 + 29 Jackson, Edwin NL 72 100 + 28 Milone, Tommy AL 35 61 + 26 Bumgarner, Madison NL 109 135 + 26 -------------------------------------------------- Name League BPV Jun BPV Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ==== Lyles, Jordan AL 108 -19 -126 Keuchel, Dallas AL 148 57 - 91 Diamond, Scott AL 48 -41 - 89 Teheran, Julio NL 163 77 - 86 Medlen, Kris NL 145 60 - 85 Marquis, Jason NL 17 -67 - 84 Gonzalez, Miguel AL 96 13 - 83 Miller, Shelby NL 149 68 - 81 Samardzija, Jeff NL 107 31 - 76 Harang, Aaron NL 103 28 - 75 Norris, Bud AL 101 26 - 74 Williams, Jerome AL 55 -18 - 73 Gee, Dillon NL 100 27 - 73 Parker, Jarrod AL 67 -6 - 72 Danks, John AL 125 57 - 69 Correia, Kevin AL 89 22 - 67 Kendrick, Kyle NL 101 36 - 65 Gallardo, Yovani NL 82 20 - 62 Leake, Mike NL 80 17 - 62 Volquez, Edinson NL 95 36 - 59 Pettitte, Andy AL 101 43 - 58 Latos, Mat NL 154 100 - 55 Porcello, Rick AL 118 71 - 47 Jimenez, Ubaldo AL 43 1 - 42 Verlander, Justin AL 52 10 - 42 Wood, Travis NL 71 29 - 42 Deduno, Samuel AL 70 29 - 41 Bedard, Erik AL 60 19 - 40 Hernandez, Roberto AL 108 70 - 38 Turner, Jacob NL 64 28 - 35 Delgado, Randall NL 111 81 - 30 Garza, Matt AL 110 81 - 29 Hammel, Jason AL 28 2 - 26 *min 20 IP each month
Let's dig even deeper to look for other July gems.
First, here are the SP who posted the highest average fastball velocities in July:
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92.5+ mph average fastball velocity, July 2013* Name League FBv ================== ====== ==== Harvey, Matt NL 96.6 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 96.0 Cole, Gerrit NL 95.5 Strasburg, Stephen NL 95.2 Fernandez, Jose NL 95.1 Peralta, Wily NL 95.1 Cosart, Jarred NL 95.0 Archer, Chris AL 94.9 Bailey, Homer NL 94.8 Miller, Shelby NL 94.6 Wheeler, Zack NL 94.5 Samardzija, Jeff NL 94.5 Price, David AL 94.1 Scherzer, Max AL 93.8 Nova, Ivan AL 93.8 Zimmermann, Jordan NL 93.6 Latos, Mat NL 93.6 Chatwood, Tyler NL 93.6 Kluber, Corey AL 93.5 Davis, Wade AL 93.4 Morton, Charlie NL 93.2 Rogers, Esmil AL 93.2 Santana, Ervin AL 93.1 Holland, Derek AL 93.1 Sanchez, Anibal AL 93.1 Verlander, Justin AL 93.1 Johnson, Josh AL 93.0 Liriano, Francisco NL 93.0 Perez, Martin AL 93.0 Norris, Bud AL 93.0 Sale, Chris AL 92.9 Gonzalez, Gio NL 92.8 Jackson, Edwin NL 92.8 Pelfrey, Mike AL 92.8 Burnett, A.J. NL 92.7 Moore, Matt AL 92.7 Lester, Jon AL 92.7 Lynn, Lance NL 92.7 Kazmir, Scott AL 92.7 Volquez, Edinson NL 92.7 Garza, Matt AL 92.6 Hammel, Jason AL 92.6 Corbin, Patrick NL 92.5 Alvarez, Henderson NL 92.5 *min 20 IP
And those whose average fastball velocities changed the most between June and July:
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Average fastball velocity, July 2013 vs. June 2013* Name League FBv Jun FBv Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ==== Greinke, Zack NL 90.6 92.4 +1.8 Davis, Wade AL 92.0 93.4 +1.4 Dickey, R.A. AL 81.1 82.3 +1.2 Chatwood, Tyler NL 92.5 93.6 +1.1 Danks, John AL 88.4 89.4 +1.0 Stults, Eric NL 86.1 87.1 +1.0 Bailey, Homer NL 93.8 94.8 +1.0 Miller, Shelby NL 93.8 94.6 +0.8 Kluber, Corey AL 92.8 93.5 +0.7 Bumgarner, Madison NL 91.3 92.0 +0.7 Bedard, Erik AL 89.1 89.8 +0.7 Kuroda, Hiroki AL 91.5 92.2 +0.7 Latos, Mat NL 92.9 93.6 +0.7 Lohse, Kyle NL 89.1 89.7 +0.6 Shields, James AL 91.8 92.4 +0.6 Lynn, Lance NL 92.1 92.7 +0.6 Hellickson, Jeremy AL 90.6 91.2 +0.6 Masterson, Justin AL 91.5 92.1 +0.6 Fister, Doug AL 88.2 88.8 +0.6 Wainwright, Adam NL 91.0 91.5 +0.5 Volquez, Edinson NL 92.2 92.7 +0.5 Locke, Jeff NL 90.4 90.9 +0.5 Gonzalez, Miguel AL 91.4 91.9 +0.5 Scherzer, Max AL 93.3 93.8 +0.5 Nolasco, Ricky NL 90.2 90.7 +0.5 Fernandez, Jose NL 94.6 95.1 +0.5 Tillman, Chris AL 91.5 92.0 +0.5 -------------------------------------------------- Name League FBv Jun FBv Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ==== Gaudin, Chad NL 91.7 90.0 -1.7 Parker, Jarrod AL 92.1 90.9 -1.2 Nicasio, Juan NL 92.7 91.7 -1.0 Hamels, Cole NL 92.1 91.2 -0.9 Sale, Chris AL 93.8 92.9 -0.9 Westbrook, Jake NL 89.9 89.1 -0.8 Cole, Gerrit NL 96.3 95.5 -0.8 Buehrle, Mark AL 84.2 83.4 -0.8 Zimmermann, Jordan NL 94.3 93.6 -0.7 Straily, Dan AL 90.7 90.0 -0.7 Turner, Jacob NL 92.3 91.7 -0.6 Hernandez, Felix AL 92.5 91.9 -0.6 Pettibone, Jonathan NL 91.6 91.0 -0.6 Teheran, Julio NL 91.8 91.3 -0.5 Porcello, Rick AL 91.4 90.9 -0.5 Kennedy, Ian NL 90.9 90.4 -0.5 Hefner, Jeremy NL 91.4 90.9 -0.5 Colon, Bartolo AL 90.2 89.7 -0.5 Hammel, Jason AL 93.1 92.6 -0.5 Guthrie, Jeremy AL 91.8 91.3 -0.5 Lincecum, Tim NL 90.4 89.9 -0.5 Quintana, Jose AL 91.9 91.4 -0.5 *min 20 IP each month
Now let's look at swinging strike rates posted by SP.
First, those who posted the highest swinging strike rates in July:
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10.0%+ Swinging Strike rate, July 2013* Name League SS% ================== ====== ===== Harvey, Matt NL 15.4% Corbin, Patrick NL 14.5% Lincecum, Tim NL 13.9% Kershaw, Clayton NL 13.6% Liriano, Francisco NL 13.3% Bailey, Homer NL 12.9% Scherzer, Max AL 12.8% Nolasco, Ricky NL 12.7% Bumgarner, Madison NL 12.2% Sale, Chris AL 12.0% Latos, Mat NL 12.0% Fernandez, Jose NL 11.8% Straily, Dan AL 11.7% Strasburg, Stephen NL 11.6% Gonzalez, Gio NL 11.5% Moore, Matt AL 11.5% Holland, Derek AL 11.4% Minor, Mike NL 11.4% Tillman, Chris AL 11.3% Redmond, Todd AL 11.2% Greinke, Zack NL 11.1% Haren, Dan NL 11.1% Lackey, John AL 10.8% Norris, Bud AL 10.8% Hernandez, Felix AL 10.8% Peralta, Wily NL 10.7% Capuano, Chris NL 10.7% Weaver, Jered AL 10.7% Kuroda, Hiroki AL 10.7% Sabathia, C.C. AL 10.6% Nova, Ivan AL 10.6% Gorzelanny, Tom NL 10.6% Hellickson, Jeremy AL 10.4% Medlen, Kris NL 10.4% Quintana, Jose AL 10.4% Cingrani, Tony NL 10.4% Burnett, A.J. NL 10.4% Delgado, Randall NL 10.3% Hamels, Cole NL 10.3% Lester, Jon AL 10.2% Iwakuma, Hisashi AL 10.1% Dempster, Ryan AL 10.1% *min 20 IP
Next, those whose swinging strike rate changed the most from June to July:
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Swinging Strike rate, July 2013 vs. June 2013* Name League SS% Jun SS% Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ===== Corbin, Patrick NL 9.3% 14.5% +5.2% Tillman, Chris AL 6.9% 11.3% +4.4% Holland, Derek AL 7.8% 11.4% +3.6% Chatwood, Tyler NL 4.6% 8.1% +3.5% Quintana, Jose AL 7.1% 10.4% +3.3% Fernandez, Jose NL 8.8% 11.8% +3.0% Lincecum, Tim NL 11.0% 13.9% +2.9% Guthrie, Jeremy AL 3.8% 6.6% +2.8% Buehrle, Mark AL 6.2% 9.0% +2.8% Peralta, Wily NL 8.1% 10.7% +2.6% Dempster, Ryan AL 7.6% 10.1% +2.5% Gaudin, Chad NL 7.1% 9.6% +2.5% Lackey, John AL 8.4% 10.8% +2.4% Hellickson, Jeremy AL 8.0% 10.4% +2.4% Milone, Tommy AL 7.0% 9.3% +2.3% Harvey, Matt NL 13.3% 15.4% +2.1% Kuroda, Hiroki AL 8.7% 10.7% +2.0% Pettibone, Jonathan NL 5.0% 7.0% +2.0% Lynn, Lance NL 7.5% 9.5% +2.0% Bedard, Erik AL 7.5% 9.4% +1.9% Sabathia, C.C. AL 8.7% 10.6% +1.9% Gonzalez, Gio NL 9.6% 11.5% +1.9% Kershaw, Clayton NL 11.9% 13.6% +1.7% Nolasco, Ricky NL 11.0% 12.7% +1.7% Straily, Dan AL 10.0% 11.7% +1.7% Greinke, Zack NL 9.4% 11.1% +1.7% De La Rosa, Jorge NL 8.3% 9.8% +1.5% --------------------------------------------------- Name League SS% Jun SS% Jul Diff ================== ====== ======= ======= ===== Teheran, Julio NL 14.6% 9.3% -5.3% Williams, Jerome AL 11.1% 5.9% -5.2% Diamond, Scott AL 7.6% 3.9% -3.7% Porcello, Rick AL 8.6% 5.1% -3.5% Marquis, Jason NL 8.9% 5.8% -3.1% Turner, Jacob NL 10.4% 7.5% -2.9% Kennedy, Ian NL 9.7% 6.8% -2.9% Zimmermann, Jordan NL 10.5% 7.7% -2.8% Wilson, C.J. AL 9.7% 6.9% -2.8% Hughes, Phil AL 8.3% 5.7% -2.6% Pettitte, Andy AL 8.5% 6.2% -2.3% Hamels, Cole NL 12.6% 10.3% -2.3% Santiago, Hector AL 10.1% 7.9% -2.2% Wainwright, Adam NL 11.3% 9.2% -2.1% Kluber, Corey AL 11.3% 9.2% -2.1% Westbrook, Jake NL 6.2% 4.1% -2.1% Keuchel, Dallas AL 10.6% 8.6% -2.0% Correia, Kevin AL 7.6% 5.6% -2.0% Garza, Matt AL 10.0% 8.1% -1.9% Hudson, Tim NL 10.0% 8.1% -1.9% Latos, Mat NL 13.8% 12.0% -1.8% Wood, Travis NL 8.3% 6.5% -1.8% Jackson, Edwin NL 9.7% 7.9% -1.8% Masterson, Justin AL 10.3% 8.5% -1.8% Johnson, Josh AL 10.0% 8.3% -1.7% Gallardo, Yovani NL 7.3% 5.6% -1.7% Lyles, Jordan AL 6.8% 5.2% -1.6% Lohse, Kyle NL 8.2% 6.6% -1.6% *min 20 IP each month
Let's take a closer look at a bunch of noteworthy guys, with our usual focus on those who may be available in deep leagues.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, it may be easy to feel comfortable with him already. Just keep in mind that he was the beneficiary of a trifecta of help in July: 16% H%, 91% S%, 2% hr/f. His base skills were league average: 5.4 Dom, 1.7 Ctl, 45% GB%, 73 BPV. He remains a gem in keeper leagues, but bank on inconsistency down the stretch.
A.J. Griffin (RHP, OAK) had a mediocre 4.86 ERA in July, but his base skills were much better than that: 7.3 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 33% GB%, 102 BPV. He was hurt by a 2.7 HR/9, which was the product of both his high flyball rate as well as an elevated 19% hr/f. There's some stretch-run profit here.
Josh Johnson (RHP, TOR) entered the season as a huge risk due to his declining fastball velocity and chronic shoulder concerns. And his results in July (7.71 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) have put him on the free agent wire in many leagues. But there is some nice profit potential here over the final two months. His base skills in July were excellent: 9.8 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 45% GB%, 124 BPV. And they came on the heels of the 118 BPV he posted in June. His implosion in July was the result of three unfriendly indicators: 35% H%, 55% S%, 31% hr/f. Regarding his fastball, it's been at 93 mph in consecutive months, meaning this is shaping up to be the first year since 2009 that his fastball isn't in decline. He's a good stretch-run upside play again if you can stomach his occasional explosions.
Corey Kluber (RHP, CLE) continues to post elite skills month after month. His BPV by month so far in 2013: 174, 139, 115, 113. He even added a 50% GB% to the mix in July. With a 3.19 xERA, his 3.77 ERA has more upside than most people will realize.
Bud Norris (RHP, BAL) was viewed as a #4-type starter when his name was being thrown out at the trade deadline, a perception that wasn't helped by the 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP he posted in July. Likewise, his skills dipped from a 101 BPV in June to this mediocre line in July: 7.1 Dom, 4.1 Ctl, 32% GB%, 26 BPV. Before you dump him, keep in mind that he's got the ingredients for a strikeout spike. He had a 93 mph average fastball in July, and his swinging strike rate jumped from a nice 9.5% to an upper-tier 10.8%. Only 10 starting pitchers in the AL had a higher SS% in July than Norris did. If he can find a groundball pitch, he could take a big step forward.
Iván Nova (RHP, NYY) reminded us in July why he entered 2013 as an excellent buy low target: 31 IP, 2.03 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.4 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 51% GB%, 110 BPV. His 93.8 mph average fastball velocity was the fourth-highest in the AL that month. Nova's emergence has been for real.
Todd Redmond (RHP, TOR) came out of nowhere in July to post these excellent stats and skills: 28 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 34% GB%, 106 BPV. He was drafted by PIT in the 39th round of the June 2004 draft. He has a long history in the minors of posting league-average skills, but both his Dom and Ctl have improved since the beginning of 2012. Problem is, he has consistently been a flyball pitcher, a dangerous recipe given his home park and division. Once he's recalled again from Triple-A, speculate on the skills but keep him on a short leash.
Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA) went back to his soft-tossing, elite skill profile in July: 8.1 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 117 BPV. While he's one of the few SP who have consistently been able to stave off H%, S%, and hr/f regression over his career, his margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows. His FB velocity trend by season over the last four years: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.6. He'll have a much harder time inducing soft contact with a mid-80s fastball.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, LAA) has rebounded nicely after a tough April. Improved control has been the key. His Ctl by month: 5.2, 3.5, 3.1, 2.7. He has posted a 90+ BPV in consecutive months, including these skills in July: 8.5 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 42% GB%, 99 BPV. Our pessimism in April appears to have been premature. Keep using him.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Homer Bailey (RHP, CIN) has blossomed into a legit ace in 2013. After years of frustrating owners due to his slow starts and hot finishes, Bailey has posted this monthly BPV so far in 2013: 128, 113, 150, 151. Those skills have been driven by consistent dominance. His Dom by month: 9.0, 9.0, 9.0, 9.1. He even gained one mph on his fastball in July, which averaged 94.8 mph that month. And his swinging strike rate increased by 1.4% to a top-tier 12.9%. Don't even think about benching him.
Chris Capuano (LHP, LA) quietly has pitched really well over the last two months. He had a 152 BPV in a small 15 IP sample in June and carried that forward to July: 7.1 Dom, 0.8 Ctl, 40% GB%, 122 BPV. He's a good bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA and low WHIP in the second half.
Tyler Chatwood (RHP, COL) made some nice under-the-surface gains in July even as his surface stats began to regress. Behind his 4.63 ERA and 1.51 WHIP that month was a 1.1 mph increase in his fastball to 93.6 mph, as well as a 3.5% jump in his swinging strike rate. With a solid groundball tilt and 2.3+ Cmd in three of four months so far this season, Chatwood's emergence this season has been mostly for real. At age 23, he'll head into 2014 with some breakout potential.
Gerrit Cole (RHP, PIT) showed flashes in July of his top-of-the-rotation upside: 3.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.5 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 50% GB%, 100 BPV. He also had an average fastball velocity of 95.5 mph. He's still not a legit strikeout machine (low 7.4% swinging strike rate), but he is laying the foundation for future growth.
Patrick Corbin (LHP, ARI) is showing no signs of slowing down. He posted the fourth-best skills of any NL SP in July: 9.9 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 49% GB%, 156 BPV. His Dom spike was supported by a huge 5.2% increase in his swinging strike rate. Just keep in mind that nearly all of his success has come due to one pitch: an unhittable slider. Batters have a .186 Slg against that pitch the near five hundred times he has thrown it. He'll be overvalued on draft day next season, but for now, keep riding him.
Gio González (LHP, WAS) had a horrible 5.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in July, primarily due to one awful start. His base skills in July were actually great: 11.0 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 46% GB%, 137 BPV. He was done in by a 42% H% and 19% hr/f. That hit rate was the highest of any SP in MLB that month. Roster him with confidence.
Dan Haren (RHP, WAS) does not get treated like an ace anymore, primarily due to his shaky durability and dwindling fastball velocity. But his skills in July were reminiscent of his elite days: 10.2 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 35% GB%, 132 BPV. He should finish strong if he can stay healthy.
Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) had the best skills of any SP in July: 10.3 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 50% GB%, 170 BPV. His 96.6 mph average fastball velocity was also the highest of any SP. If you're thinking about dealing an ace for some hitting help down the stretch, don't include Harvey in the discussion.
Edwin Jackson (RHP, CHC) delivered in July on the profit potential we've forecasted out of him over the last six weeks. He posted a 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 34 IP during July. The recipe was elite command and the third-highest groundball rate in the NL: 5.8 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 61% GB%, 100 BPV. He remains a good hold over the final two months.
Taylor Jordan (RHP, WAS) will be shut down after a few more starts, but the high command + GB machine profile he flashed in July makes him a guy to stash in keeper leagues: 5.8 Dom, 0.9 Ctl, 58% GB%, 117 BPV.
Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 43% GB%, 167 BPV. Only the skills of Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) were better that month. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him (BPV last 10 months: 82, 36, 108, 126, 42, 41, 56, 98, 75, 167). But if your rotation needs a push down the stretch, he's got enough left in the tank to provide it.
Kris Medlen (RHP, ATL) reportedly was close to being ousted from the ATL rotation in July. It's a good thing that didn't happen, because a closer look reveals that a 41% H% was the primary driver of his 6.41 ERA and 1.84 WHIP that month. And his high 10.4% swinging strike rate suggests that his 6.1 Dom was lower than it should have been. He's a good bet to rebound in August.
Charlie Morton (RHP, PIT) was victimized by a crazy 33% hr/f in July, the highest hr/f of any SP with 20 IP during that month. Morton's base skills in July featured an elite groundball tilt and excellent command: 7.7 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 58% GB%, 125 BPV. Don't forget that Morton got a lot of attention two years ago for overhauling his delivery, drawing comparisons to the one used by Roy Halladay. As a groundball machine with a 93 mph average fastball velocity, the comparisons go beyond his delivery. There's still more upside here than most will realize, especially considering that he's two years removed from Tommy John surgery now.
Ricky Nolasco (RHP, LA) had a nifty 3.00 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in July. While his 75 BPV that month did not support such nice surface stats, his fastball increased by 0.5 mph and his swinging strike rate jumped by 1.7% to an elite 12.7% level. Don't sell high.
Wily Peralta (RHP, MIL) enjoyed a big skill spike in July after posting an ugly 15 BPV in June: 7.8 Dom, 3.6 Ctl, 57% GB%, 80 BPV. He also posted a 95.1 mph average fastball velocity and a high 10.7% swinging strike rate. With top-tier raw stuff and a high groundball rate, Peralta has an extremely intriguing profile and makes for a good stretch-run stash if you can stomach his all-too-frequent blowups (26% PQS-DIS%).
Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, WAS) had a horrible showing in July, at least on the surface (7.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). But he was one of the unluckiest SP in MLB that month: 38% H%, 58% S%, 21% hr/f. His base skills remained excellent: 8.2 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 44% GB%, 114 BPV. No reason to jump ship.
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The recent struggles of Cristopher Sánchez can be traced back to his road starts, where both his stats and skills go from great to bad.
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Aug 17 2024 3:09am
Brayan Bello's concurrent improvement in swinging strikes and ball percentage in the second half suggests he could deliver improved results down the stretch.
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
Aug 10 2024 3:09am
