(*) STARTERS: 2015's young building blocks
Aug 17 2014
Riding emerging young starting pitchers over the final six weeks can help your rotation make a strong push to the finish line.
In addition, rostering them in keeper leagues can put your staff in a good position heading into 2015.
There remains a perception that young starting pitchers are too risky to roster. While young SP often are on shorter leashes than their experienced counterparts, the stats and skills between young and old so far in 2014 have been extremely similar:
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SP by age group - 2014 YTD Group ERA WHIP | Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% | H% S% hr/f | FAv SwK% FpK% | BPV ======= ==== ==== | === === ==== === | === === ==== | ==== ==== ==== | ===
Younger guys throw harder than older ones, but the velocity itself does not translate into more strikeouts.
The main difference between these two groups can be found in their control. SP that are age 27+ throw more first-pitch strikes and have slightly better control.
Here are the best YTD skills of SP who are age 26 or under:
75+ BPV, age 26 or under Name League Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% hr/f FAv SwK% FpK% BPV ================== ====== === ==== ==== === === === ==== ==== ==== ==== === Kershaw, Clayton NL 1.3 10.8 0.4 55% 29% 81% 7% 92.8 15% 68% 193 Fernandez, Jose NL 2.3 12.2 0.7 49% 30% 78% 10% 94.6 14% 65% 185 Sale, Chris AL 1.7 10.4 0.5 43% 28% 80% 6% 93.1 13% 67% 163 Strasburg, Stephen NL 2.0 10.7 1.0 46% 35% 74% 14% 94.6 12% 66% 161 Tanaka, Masahiro AL 1.3 9.4 1.0 46% 30% 82% 14% 91.2 14% 62% 157 Bumgarner, Madison NL 2.1 8.8 0.7 47% 32% 74% 9% 91.8 11% 65% 127 Wood, Alex NL 2.4 8.9 0.9 44% 31% 80% 10% 89.8 10% 61% 117 Cobb, Alex AL 2.7 8.5 0.8 58% 30% 73% 11% 90.9 12% 59% 116 Richards, Garrett AL 2.8 8.9 0.3 51% 27% 75% 4% 96.4 11% 55% 112 Odorizzi, Jake AL 3.2 10.1 0.9 32% 33% 72% 8% 90.3 10% 61% 106 Bolsinger, Mike NL 2.7 8.2 1.3 53% 36% 66% 17% 88.1 9% 67% 105 Stroman, Marcus AL 2.3 7.7 0.5 50% 27% 76% 6% 93.6 8% 57% 105 Teheran, Julio NL 2.0 8.0 1.0 36% 28% 76% 9% 91.4 11% 62% 105 Leake, Mike NL 2.1 7.0 0.9 54% 31% 74% 13% 90.8 7% 60% 103 Wacha, Michael NL 2.6 8.3 0.5 44% 29% 76% 6% 93.0 11% 64% 101 Keuchel, Dallas AL 2.2 6.8 0.5 61% 31% 76% 10% 89.5 10% 66% 101 Salazar, Danny AL 3.3 9.9 1.4 33% 36% 71% 13% 94.3 10% 60% 100 Cole, Gerrit NL 3.1 8.2 0.8 52% 32% 73% 11% 95.5 9% 64% 95 Whitley, Chase AL 1.8 6.6 0.9 47% 36% 69% 10% 90.5 11% 64% 94 Quintana, Jose AL 2.7 7.9 0.4 46% 31% 74% 5% 91.2 8% 66% 94 deGrom, Jacob NL 3.0 8.4 0.5 43% 31% 78% 7% 93.4 11% 62% 93 Minor, Mike NL 2.6 8.1 1.6 38% 37% 70% 15% 90.5 7% 64% 92 Erlin, Robbie NL 2.1 7.3 0.8 39% 33% 66% 8% 89.6 9% 63% 91 Worley, Vance NL 1.5 5.7 0.7 48% 28% 82% 8% 89.8 4% 62% 89 House, T.J. AL 2.6 6.6 1.1 61% 35% 75% 18% 91.5 9% 61% 88 Skaggs, Tyler AL 2.4 6.9 0.7 50% 30% 65% 9% 92.0 8% 64% 87 Wheeler, Zack NL 3.7 8.7 0.7 53% 31% 75% 10% 94.6 10% 56% 87 Locke, Jeff NL 1.8 6.0 1.2 49% 30% 72% 14% 90.5 9% 59% 87 Archer, Chris AL 3.4 8.4 0.4 47% 32% 74% 5% 94.1 10% 58% 86 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 1.8 6.3 0.6 44% 31% 68% 6% 95.5 8% 64% 85 Gray, Sonny AL 3.2 7.6 0.5 55% 29% 77% 8% 93.1 8% 56% 83 Ventura, Yordano AL 3.0 7.7 0.9 48% 31% 76% 11% 96.2 11% 64% 83 Peralta, Wily NL 2.6 6.6 1.1 55% 29% 78% 15% 95.4 8% 58% 83 Alvarez, Henderson NL 1.8 5.4 0.5 55% 30% 81% 8% 92.0 7% 62% 82 Hutchison, Drew AL 2.9 8.2 1.1 35% 31% 66% 9% 92.0 10% 60% 82 Elias, Roenis AL 3.2 8.2 1.0 44% 29% 69% 11% 91.7 10% 61% 82 Hahn, Jesse NL 3.9 8.7 0.6 52% 25% 79% 9% 91.1 10% 59% 80 Porcello, Rick AL 1.8 5.6 0.7 49% 28% 75% 9% 90.5 8% 63% 79 Smyly, Drew AL 2.8 7.8 1.1 37% 33% 75% 10% 90.1 10% 61% 79 Anderson, Chase NL 3.0 7.8 1.3 39% 30% 82% 14% 90.7 10% 60% 78 Hendricks, Kyle NL 1.9 5.6 0.4 51% 26% 85% 6% 88.8 8% 62% 78 Buchanan, David NL 2.3 6.2 1.1 48% 29% 68% 13% 90.3 8% 57% 76 *min 40 IP
Here are the young SP who have posted the best skills during the last month:
75+ BPV, age 26 or under - last 30 days Name League Ctl Dom HR/9 GB% H% S% hr/f FAv SwK% FpK% BPV ================== ====== === ==== ==== === === === ==== ==== ==== ==== === Sale, Chris AL 2.1 12.3 0.3 41% 34% 82% 3% 94.2 15% 64% 186 Porcello, Rick AL 0.6 8.1 0.3 54% 29% 80% 5% 90.8 10% 72% 160 Cobb, Alex AL 2.2 9.5 0.3 57% 31% 85% 4% 90.4 12% 55% 145 Kershaw, Clayton NL 1.4 8.3 0.2 52% 28% 81% 3% 92.6 13% 62% 143 Strasburg, Stephen NL 2.6 10.6 1.4 44% 30% 74% 19% 95.0 11% 71% 143 Wood, Alex NL 2.9 10.6 0.9 47% 36% 87% 10% 89.5 11% 52% 139 Smyly, Drew AL 2.4 10.0 0.3 40% 35% 75% 3% 90.6 13% 66% 134 Anderson, Brett NL 1.9 7.7 0.0 65% 29% 87% 0% 90.1 12% 66% 129 Teheran, Julio NL 2.1 9.4 1.1 38% 35% 68% 10% 91.4 11% 65% 129 Archer, Chris AL 2.6 9.8 0.3 45% 33% 77% 4% 94.5 12% 64% 129 Elias, Roenis AL 3.3 10.8 0.4 43% 33% 84% 4% 92.2 15% 57% 125 Bumgarner, Madison NL 1.3 7.7 0.8 42% 23% 77% 9% 92.5 11% 68% 124 Tillman, Chris AL 1.2 7.3 0.9 45% 24% 79% 10% 90.9 7% 60% 122 Richards, Garrett AL 1.7 7.4 0.3 53% 24% 70% 3% 97.0 9% 61% 118 Cahill, Trevor NL 1.6 7.1 0.3 51% 33% 68% 5% 91.5 11% 60% 115 deGrom, Jacob NL 1.7 7.4 0.3 47% 27% 79% 4% 93.5 12% 69% 113 Odorizzi, Jake AL 2.2 9.4 1.3 23% 28% 77% 9% 89.7 10% 63% 111 Miller, Shelby NL 1.1 6.5 1.9 44% 21% 69% 17% 93.5 7% 60% 108 Nelson, Jimmy NL 1.7 6.6 0.7 58% 28% 69% 11% 93.4 9% 66% 107 Salazar, Danny AL 2.5 9.0 0.8 32% 33% 73% 8% 95.0 9% 66% 106 Hutchison, Drew AL 2.0 8.1 1.7 33% 32% 52% 12% 92.3 9% 68% 102 Leake, Mike NL 2.6 7.5 0.9 55% 32% 74% 15% 90.4 7% 60% 98 Stroman, Marcus AL 2.2 6.8 0.0 54% 24% 73% 0% 93.3 7% 56% 96 Keuchel, Dallas AL 2.4 6.6 0.8 57% 32% 83% 11% 89.8 9% 68% 90 Anderson, Chase NL 2.6 7.8 0.9 40% 28% 84% 8% 90.7 9% 58% 89 Worley, Vance AL 1.6 5.7 0.5 52% 29% 89% 7% 89.4 4% 64% 89 Wheeler, Zack NL 3.4 8.4 1.1 50% 28% 89% 14% 94.7 10% 55% 89 Nuno, Vidal AL 2.0 6.7 1.3 38% 29% 69% 11% 89.6 8% 69% 82 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 2.2 6.3 0.7 45% 30% 57% 8% 95.7 10% 63% 77 Hendricks, Kyle NL 1.5 4.8 0.3 53% 25% 91% 4% 88.9 7% 63% 77 *min 20 IP
Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy performances by young starting pitchers who might not be on your radar already.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chris Archer (RHP, TAM) started the season with a strong 121 BPV in April, but he followed that up with monthly BPVs of 40, 77, and 39 from May to July. Those three months of mediocrity have been wiped away so far in August, when his skills have been even more electric than they were in April: 12.8 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 41% GB%, 15% SwK%, 185 BPV. He remains a premium arm in keeper leagues and could be in store for a big finish.
Alex Cobb (RHP, TAM) might not be viewed as an ace in most leagues, but it's time to re-think that perception. He has posted a sub-2.50 ERA in three separate months. His elite base skills feature top-tier command and an extreme groundball tilt: 8.6 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 58% GB%, 121 BPV.
Roenis Elías (LHP, SEA) has been overlooked by many owners this season. His 4.14 ERA is one explanation for it. Digging deeper, his mediocre surface stats largely are the result of the 6.27 ERA and 1.71 WHIP he posted in July. Those marks were driven by an unfriendly 41% H% and 63% S%. He actually had an impressive 11.1 Dom that month, and the strikeouts have kept coming in August: 9.5 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 52% GB%, 16% SwK%, 137 BPV. In fact, his swinging strike rate over the last month is the highest of any SP in MLB. He's an unheralded young arm worth grabbing for your stretch run and heading into 2015.
T.J. House (LHP, CLE) has a mediocre 4.13 ERA and ugly 1.51 WHIP after 61 IP with CLE. As a result, he's on the waiver wire in most leagues. A closer look suggests now's a good time to buy him low. His 3.53 xERA is the result of his solid command and very high groundball rate: 6.5 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 61% GB%, 88 BPV. LH batters have absolutely no chance against him: 8.1 Dom, 1.4 Ctl, 67% GB%, 155 BPV. Finding a strikeout pitch against righties (5.7 Dom) would help him emerge.
Drew Hutchison (RHP, TOR) looked like he might be a poor stretch-run target in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, since he struggled to gain any consistency after his electric 132 BPV in April. While his 6.41 ERA over the last month might make him seem like a guy to avoid, behind that mark are these skills: 8.1 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 33% GB%, 102 BPV. A crazy 52% S% during that period was the main reason for his 6+ ERA. He'll still carry some durability risk down the stretch, but this remains an exciting young arm with the potential to produce plenty of strikeouts down the stretch.
Rick Porcello (RHP, DET) has outperformed his skills for most of the season. That has changed drastically during the last month. His skills have been fantastic during the last 30 days: 8.1 Dom, 0.6 Ctl, 54% GB%, 160 BPV. His sub-indicators give strong support to his excellent command: 10% SwK%, 72% FpK%.
Danny Salazar (RHP, CLE) has been a non-factor in most leagues this season due to his 4.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In spite of his inconsistency, Salazar has produced really strong skills with CLE: 9.9 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 33% GB%, 100 BPV. The combination of an inflated 36% H% and high 1.4 HR/9 has fueled his volatility. He's someone who could turn into an ace quickly if he can find a groundball pitch.
Drew Smyly (LHP, TAM) owns some mediocre overall skills (79 BPV), but few young SP have been more electric than Smyly over the last month: 10.0 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 40% GB%, 134 BPV. His 13% SwK% and 66% FpK% over that time gives support to his strikeout and walk levels.
Marcus Stroman (RHP, TOR) had a disastrous outing during his last start, but his skills before that were excellent: 7.7 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 50% GB%, 105 BPV. He owns elite command against RH bats: 7.2 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 53% GB%, 131 BPV. With a 94-mph fastball and three swing-and-miss pitches (21% SwK% on slider, 11% SwK% on changeup, 10% SwK% on curveball), Stroman is a an attractive growth stock.
Chase Whitley (RHP, NYY) has put up some rough surface stats in his 12 starts with NYY so far in 2014 (4.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP). But his base skills have been very solid: 6.6 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 47% GB%, 94 BPV. And his 11% SwK% suggests that more strikeouts could be on the horizon. A 36% H% is the main reason for his bad surface stats.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Mike Bolsinger (RHP, ARI) isn't someone who will get a lot of attention in most leagues as a young arm worth owning. He was an unheralded prospect and is already 26 years old. But he posted some really attractive skills with ARI earlier this season: 8.2 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 53% GB%, 105 BPV. A 36% H%, 66% S%, and 17% hr/f combined to sabotage his surface stats (5.47 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). He has continued to put up a lot of strikeouts and groundballs since his demotion to Triple-A: 8.4 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 2.8 G/F. He remains a sneaky stash in deep leagues with more profit potential than it may seem.
Trevor Cahill (RHP, ARI) has shown signs over the last month of salvaging his lost season: 7.1 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 51% GB%, 115 BPV. Few SP have larger RH/LH splits than Cahill does. He piles up strikeouts and owns an extremely high groundball rate against RH bats: 10.5 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 62% GB%, 122 BPV. Those attributes crumble against lefties: 4.9 Dom, 3.7 Ctl, 39% GB%, 4 BPV. Few SP have three upper-tier swing-and-miss pitches; Cahill is one: changeup (19% SwK%), curveball (18% SwK%), slider (20% SwK% in limited use). He's still just 26 years old too. Put him back on your radar.
Gerrit Cole (RHP, PIT) has endured shoulder and lat issues in his first full MLB season. When healthy, he has produced strikeouts and groundballs at an intriguing rate: 8.2 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 52% GB%, 95 BPV. If his shoulder is sound, he remains a budding ace.
Robbie Erlin (LHP, SD) owns a mediocre 4.60 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 47 IP with SD and is currently sidelined with an elbow issue. That said, his skills with SD were strong: 7.3 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 39% GB%, 91 BPV. He's no lefty specialist either. He has featured excellent command against RH bats: 7.5 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 33% GB%, 95 BPV.
Jimmy Nelson (RHP, MIL) has looked like an emerging ace in his seven starts with MIL so far in 2014: 7.3 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 54% GB%, 100 BPV. His 3.51 xERA suggests that his near-4 ERA could drop down the stretch.
Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM) has shown flashes this season of becoming an impact SP. He posted a 106 BPV in April and a 110 BPV in July. Spotty control has held him back; he has put up a 4.0+ Ctl in three separate months. With his combination of strikeouts (8.0+ Dom in each month) and groundballs (54%+ GB% in three months), Wheeler has the goods to become a rotation anchor.
Alex Wood (LHP, ATL) quietly has become one of the NL's most effective SP this season. Some owners gave up on him after he temporarily lost his rotation spot in early May. If you held him, you have been rewarded with top-tier stats (2.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and skills: 8.9 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 44% GB%, 117 BPV. He has been even better during the past month: 10.6 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 47% GB%, 139 BPV. With a 3.0+ Cmd against both LH and RH bats and two impactful off-speed pitches (14% SwK% on knuckle-curve and 14% SwK% on changeup), Wood remains a very promising young arm.
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