(*) STARTERS: 2014's Hidden skills
Jan 22 2014
One key to assembling an effective starting rotation is to target pitchers with hidden skills.
Often, a pitcher's overall skills can mask upside that is hidden beneath the skill surface.
Let's do some digging to unearth SP who own some surprising skills. We'll do so using the following three splits:
- BPV vs. LH/RH
- BPV none on/runners on
- BPV home/road
First, here were the SP with the widest BPV variances when facing LH/RH batters in 2013:
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BPV 2013 - vs. LH/RH Name League Throws BPV vs. LH BPV vs. RH Diff ================== ====== ====== ========== ========== ==== Bumgarner, Madison NL LHP 204 81 -123 Saunders, Joe AL LHP 130 15 -115 Kershaw, Clayton NL LHP 220 108 -112 Sabathia, C.C. AL LHP 159 57 -101 Corbin, Patrick NL LHP 176 78 - 98 Maholm, Paul NL LHP 134 41 - 93 Jimenez, Ubaldo AL RHP 125 42 - 82 Gonzalez, Gio NL LHP 147 67 - 79 Wilson, C.J. AL LHP 126 50 - 76 Vogelsong, Ryan NL RHP 74 0 - 74 Lester, Jon AL LHP 138 65 - 73 Doubront, Felix AL LHP 108 37 - 70 Pettitte, Andy AL LHP 120 56 - 64 Minor, Mike NL LHP 145 88 - 57 Moore, Matt AL LHP 87 31 - 56 Miley, Wade NL LHP 110 58 - 52 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Lynn, Lance NL RHP 12 144 +132 Lyles, Jordan NL RHP -9 118 +127 Masterson, Justin AL RHP 54 176 +122 Rogers, Esmil AL RHP 7 119 +113 Wheeler, Zack NL RHP -17 94 +111 Porcello, Rick AL RHP 53 155 +102 McAllister, Zach AL RHP 2 103 +101 Eovaldi, Nathan NL RHP -9 91 +100 Burnett, A.J. NL RHP 72 171 + 99 Strasburg, Stephen NL RHP 73 167 + 94 Hammel, Jason AL RHP 10 93 + 82 Swarzak, Anthony AL RHP 41 123 + 82 Medlen, Kris NL RHP 57 135 + 77 Morton, Charlie NL RHP 39 116 + 77 Marquis, Jason NL RHP -54 22 + 76 Davis, Wade AL RHP 14 89 + 75 Maurer, Brandon AL RHP 42 117 + 75 *min 40 IP vs. LH/RH
Next, here were the SP with the widest skill splits when pitching with the bases empty vs. runners on base in 2013:
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BPV 2013 - None On/Runners On* Name League BPV None On BPV Runners On Diff ================== ====== =========== ============== ==== Capuano, Chris NL 154 10 -145 Harrell, Lucas AL 32 -75 -107 Collmenter, Josh NL 122 17 -104 Santana, Ervin AL 123 32 - 91 Porcello, Rick AL 141 54 - 86 Estrada, Marco NL 141 56 - 85 Nolasco, Ricky NL 132 48 - 84 Hernandez, Roberto AL 127 45 - 82 Pelfrey, Mike AL 82 3 - 79 Jackson, Edwin NL 107 30 - 78 Cobb, Alex AL 137 60 - 76 Santiago, Hector AL 81 6 - 75 Lackey, John AL 138 69 - 69 Sanchez, Anibal AL 159 92 - 67 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 83 16 - 67 Kennedy, Ian NL 93 27 - 66 Westbrook, Jake NL 25 -41 - 66 Nicasio, Juan NL 75 -9 - 66 Swarzak, Anthony AL 112 47 - 65 Bedard, Erik AL 74 9 - 65 Vogelsong, Ryan NL 62 -1 - 64 Minor, Mike NL 126 63 - 62 Alvarez, Henderson NL 81 22 - 59 Kershaw, Clayton NL 152 94 - 58 Cain, Matt NL 103 46 - 57 Davis, Wade AL 77 22 - 55 Villanueva, Carlos NL 95 42 - 54 Greinke, Zack NL 117 64 - 53 Kendrick, Kyle NL 88 35 - 53 Morton, Charlie NL 109 57 - 52 Cole, Gerrit NL 127 75 - 52 Chen, Bruce AL 57 7 - 50 ------------------------------------------------------------- Norris, Bud AL 25 96 + 72 Kelly, Joe NL 12 79 + 67 De La Rosa, Jorge NL 16 71 + 56 Guthrie, Jeremy AL 17 62 + 45 Straily, Dan AL 37 80 + 42 Locke, Jeff NL 11 50 + 39 Gee, Dillon NL 62 100 + 38 Volquez, Edinson NL 32 69 + 37 Zito, Barry NL 2 38 + 36 Chen, Wei-Yin AL 53 83 + 30 Koehler, Tom NL 26 52 + 26 Saunders, Joe AL 31 56 + 25 Verlander, Justin AL 82 107 + 25 *min 40 IP none on/runners on
Finally, these guys had the widest home/road BPV splits in 2013:
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BPV 2013 - Home/Road* Name League BPV Home BPV Road Diff ================== ====== ======== ======== ==== Nova, Ivan AL 117 35 - 82 Strasburg, Stephen NL 161 81 - 80 Hughes, Phil AL 107 34 - 72 Arroyo, Bronson NL 108 39 - 69 Greinke, Zack NL 128 60 - 68 Doubront, Felix AL 86 18 - 68 Moore, Matt AL 86 20 - 67 Bedard, Erik AL 75 11 - 64 Westbrook, Jake AL 28 -36 - 64 Harrell, Lucas AL 13 -50 - 63 Kazmir, Scott AL 145 83 - 62 Iwakuma, Hisashi AL 146 86 - 61 Nicasio, Juan NL 77 23 - 55 Minor, Mike NL 127 73 - 54 Teheran, Julio NL 131 77 - 54 Blanton, Joe AL 116 65 - 51 Miller, Shelby NL 118 68 - 50 ---------------------------------------------------- Hammel, Jason AL 6 75 + 69 Alvarez, Henderson NL 28 96 + 67 Mendoza, Luis AL -22 45 + 67 Verlander, Justin AL 62 127 + 65 Miley, Wade NL 38 92 + 54 Peralta, Wily NL 20 74 + 54 Cole, Gerrit NL 89 137 + 48 Eovaldi, Nathan NL 27 70 + 44 Wood, Travis NL 32 69 + 37 Chacin, Jhoulys NL 38 74 + 36 Keuchel, Dallas AL 65 101 + 35 Hernandez, Roberto AL 78 111 + 33 Colon, Bartolo AL 67 100 + 33 Diamond, Scott AL 9 39 + 30 Tepesch, Nick AL 72 101 + 29 Gee, Dillon NL 64 93 + 29 Cain, Matt NL 68 97 + 29 Lyles, Jordan NL 36 64 + 28 Pettitte, Andy AL 58 85 + 27 *min 40 IP home/road
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Hisashi Iwakuma (RHP, SEA) posted an elite 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 2013, numbers that came with strong skill support (117 BPV). Before you make him one of your rotation anchors, note that he showed his elite skills only at home: 8.1 Dom, 1.0 Ctl, 50% GB%, 146 BPV. Things weren't nearly as easy for him away from Safeco: 7.0 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 47% GB%, 86 BPV. A 27% H% and 84% S% combined to give him good surface stats on the road. Even more, Iwakuma was the beneficiary of a tiny 22% H% with runners in scoring position, the second-lowest mark in MLB. Buy the skills, but a 3.50 ERA is more likely than another near-2.50 mark.
Ubaldo Jiménez (RHP, CLE) finished 2013 with a flourish (2.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 111 BPV in second half). That surge will cause many owners to rely on him in 2014, but doing so remains a risky proposition. Take his BPV vs. LH/RH batters for instance. He was one of the rare RHP SP who dominated LH bats: 10.7 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 37% GB%, 125 BPV. He also posted some of the worst skills of any RHP against same-sided batters: 8.2 Dom, 5.0 Ctl, 51% GB%, 42 BPV. A 77% S% and 5% hr/f against RH hitters kept all those walks from turning into ER. We can't bet on him being as fortunate this season.
Dallas Keuchel (LHP, HOU) remains a SP to tuck away in your end game if you play in a very deep league. He posted a 125+ BPV in two separate months of 2013, and his skills on the road featured excellent command and a high groundball rate: 6.9 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 58% GB%, 101 BPV. If he can improve upon his mediocre 65 BPV at home, he could deliver some sneaky profit in 2014.
Justin Masterson (RHP, CLE) was one of seven starting pitchers in 2013 who had a 100+ BPV in all three of these situations: none on, runners on, runners in scoring position. His final bugaboo is still LH batters, against whom he had a rough 4.3 Ctl and marginal 54 BPV.
Brandon Maurer (RHP, SEA) enters 2014 as an intriguing post-hype target, especially when considering the skills he flashed against RH bats in 2013: 8.3 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 50% GB%, 117 BPV. With improvement vs. lefties (6.0 Dom, 3.1 Ctl, 40% GB%, 42 BPV), Maurer could be a big source of profit in 2014.
Bud Norris (RHP, BAL) continues to be held back by some drastic skills splits. He was hammered by lefty bats in 2013 (5.73 ERA, 1.72 WHIP). Those marks were driven by poor command, but they were also the result of a 35% H%, the eighth-highest mark against LHP in MLB. His command against RH bats was really good: 8.5 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 43% GB%, 98 BPV. He also possesses an odd none-on/runners-on skills splits. He had some of the worst skills in MLB when pitching from a full windup: 7.0 Dom, 4.4 Ctl, 40% GB%, 25 BPV. He becomes dominant when throwing from the stretch: 8.0 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 40% GB%, 96 BPV. He gets even better with runners in scoring position: 9.8 Dom, 3.0 Ctl, 38% GB%, 111 BPV. It may seem like we know who Norris is, but there's actually more upside here than most will realize.
Iván Nova (RHP, NYY) had the largest home-road skill splits in MLB in 2013. At home, he was dominant: 7.9 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 53% GB%, 117 BPV. His command evaporated on the road: 6.7 Dom, 4.4 Ctl, 56% GB%, 35 BPV. With a little more consistency, Nova could deliver a nice profit in 2014.
Rick Porcello (RHP, DET) is a legit breakout target. In fact, he posted the sixth-best skills of any SP in 2013 with the bases empty: 8.3 Dom, 1.5 Ctl, 55% GB%, 141 BPV. His skills waned with runners on base (54 BPV). In addition, Porcello had MLB's seventh-best skills against RH bats: 8.0 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 62% GB%, 155 BPV. He showed the ability to make adjustments in 2013 by refining his curveball. A couple more tweaks will yield to a breakout in 2014.
Esmil Rogers (RHP, TOR) is someone who will go undrafted in many leagues in 2014, even in deep leagues. While his end-game value is shaky at best, you should tuck away these elite skills that he flashed against RH batters in 2013: 7.0 Dom, 1.1 Ctl 45% GB%, 119 BPV. The reason for his 4.77 ERA and 1.42 WHIP can be found in his deep struggles vs. LH batters: 5.6 Dom, 4.5 Ctl, 49% GB%, 7 BPV. If he doesn't end up sticking as a SP, don't be surprised to see him emerge in a late-relief role, especially with his mid-90s fastball.
Drew Smyly (LHP, DET) had the best BPV in 2013 with the bases empty of any pitcher who is projected to start their 2014 season in a starting rotation: 10.9 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 47% GB%, 170 BPV. How he fares in a larger sample-size with runners on base will go a long way to determine how he transitions to a starting role.
Anthony Swarzak (RHP, MIN) quietly posted some intriguing skills as MIN's long-reliever in 2013: 6.5 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 45% GB%, 84 BPV. In fact, he was nearly unhittable against RH bats: 2.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.3 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 57% GB%, 123 BPV. Even if he starts the season in MIN's bullpen again, he'll get a rotation shot at some point during the season. Swarzak is a premium guy to fill out your staff with in deep leagues.
Nick Tepesch (RHP, TEX) has some sneaky potential in 2014, if you can sit him at home. He had a rough 5.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at Arlington in 2013, along with a league-average 72 BPV. His results and skills on the road were much better: 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.6 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 43% GB%, 101 BPV.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Henderson Alvarez (RHP, MIA) featured a tidy 5.0 Cmd on the road in 2013, a mark that dipped to a 1.5 Cmd when pitching at home. He still needs to find a strikeout pitch, but with a fastball that can reach the mid-90s, he's got the raw tools to make a step forward in his age-24 season, especially if he can iron out his home/road splits.
Tony Cingrani (LHP, CIN) has one of the highest ceilings of any young LHP SP in MLB, but there was a hidden skill in his arsenal that propelled him to the sub-3.00 ERA that he managed in 105 IP with CIN in 2013: he had a 20% H% with runners on base. It was the lowest mark of any SP in the NL during that situation. As lineups see him more, the regression of his H% with runners on base could become even more likely. Expect some growing pains in 2014.
Patrick Corbin (LHP, ARI) rode a complete dominance of LH batters to a breakout in 2013. His skills against LHers: 11.8 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 53% GB%, 176 BPV. He was much less dominating against RH batters: 6.5 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 45% GB%, 78 BPV. Like Iwakuma, Corbin has the skills to remain a good pitcher, but he's not someone you want to build your rotation around.
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, MIA) is an intriguing 2014 speculation due to his upper-90s fastball. While his 49 BPV in 2013 suggests he's not ready to make a splash, his skills against RH bats confirm that he already owns some nice skills in small doses: 7.0 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 46% GB%, 91 BPV.
Jordan Lyles (RHP, COL) remains a dominating SP when facing RH batters: 7.5 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 48% GB%, 118 BPV. His command totally evaporates against LH bats: 4.6 Dom, 4.4 Ctl, 49% GB%, -9 BPV. Monitor him in the spring to see if he has found a solution against lefties.
Lance Lynn (RHP, STL) owned the widest LH-RH BPV split in 2013. He was fantastic against RH bats: 9.8 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 47% GB%, 144 BPV. He fell apart against lefties: 7.6 Dom, 5.2 Ctl, 39% GB%, 12 BPV. Even a modest tweak against LH bats would give Lynn a great shot to post his first full-season 3.50 ERA.
Jeff Samardzija (RHP, CHC) did not take the step forward that many of us expected in 2013, but that just makes him an even better target for 2014. He had a nifty 100 BPV in 2013. Most of his problems came with runners in scoring position. SP average a 3.5 Ctl in that situation; Samardzija had a 5.3 Ctl. And those walks turned into ER quickly, as a result of his 1.2 HR/9 with runners in scoring position, well-above the 0.7 HR/9 situational average for SP. With a little more concentration/composure, Samardzija has a great chance to deliver on his breakout potential this season.
Zack Wheeler (RHP, NYM) flashed some of his upside against RH bats in 2013: 7.3 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 48% GB%, 94 BPV. He couldn't find the plate vs. LH bats: 7.9 Dom, 6.4 Ctl, 37% GB%, -17 BPV. It was a problem that sabotaged his overall skills. With a refined approach against lefties, Wheeler will be ready to take a big step forward.
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