(*) RELIEVERS: First look at 2014—AL East

Relief Pitchers

Doug Dennis

Aug 20 2013 11:04pm

(*) RELIEVERS: First look at 2014—AL East

Doug Dennis

Aug 20 2013

This column shifts focus for the next six weeks, as we work our way around the league in an attempt to get an early read on possible 2014 bullpen keepers. First up: the AL East.

Baltimore is once again in the hunt and has closer Jim Johnson (RHP, BAL) getting through a rough patch. The Orioles traded for Francisco Rodríguez (RHP, BAL) and have gotten great work from Tommy Hunter (RHP, BAL) and sidewinder Darren O'Day (RHP, BAL) to cover the right side. Brian Matusz (LHP, BAL) and Troy Patton (LHP, BAL) man the left side. Some pretty good BPIs overall:

BAL                SV  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9 xERA  G/F  BPV
=================  == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
J.Johnson          39 53.7  6.9  2.4  0.7 3.55 55/24  80
F.Rodriguez        10 33.7 10.7  3.6  1.6 3.29 31/50 122
T.Hunter            3 65.3  6.5  4.3  1.0 3.65 40/40  94
D.O'Day             2 51.3  8.9  4.3  1.1 3.41 34/44 116
B.Matusz (L)        0 42.0  7.7  2.8  0.6 3.74 40/38  82
T.Patton (L)        0 49.7  6.0  2.5  1.1 4.00 47/36  69

This pen got the Orioles into the playoffs last season. This season, it is not going nearly so well in late innings, although Johnson has shown better skills this year to go with his huge save total. Johnson also leads baseball with nine blown saves—not in the script for a 55% GB reliever with acceptable BPIs. The Orioles appear set to stick with him—as they should—but Hunter is plan B and waiting in the wings if needed to close over K-Rod and his 1.6 hr/9.

K-Rod won't likely be back, but there is no reason that the Orioles won't open 2014 with Johnson as the closer and Hunter as plan B. The Orioles will continue to search for starting pitchers and fill in holes on the bench and in the lineup. The team seems to find an extra arm for the pen each spring as well.

As great as Boston's season has been, the pen has been something of a nightmare, with Joel Hanrahan (RHP, BOS) pitching horribly before going out for the season 7.1 innings in and Andrew Bailey got a good bit further before tearing his labrum. Fortunately, Koji Uehara (RHP, BOS) and Junichi Tazawa have been rock-solid and newcomer Matt Thornton (LHP, BOS) has come in for injured Andrew Miller (LHP, BOS) to stabilize the left side:

BOS                SV  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9 xERA  G/F  BPV
=================  == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
Uehara             12 54.7 12.3  8.3  0.8 2.40 40/50 200
A.Bailey            8 28.7 12.2  3.3  2.2 3.33 22/54 119
Hanrahan            4  7.3  6.1  0.8  4.9 7.03 36/56 -74
Tazawa              0 56.3  9.4  6.6  1.3 3.22 34/39 143
Thornton (L)        0 36.3  6.7  2.3  1.0 3.88 50/30  68
Breslow (L)         0 43.7  4.9  2.0  0.4 4.27 43/35  43
A.Miller (L)        0 30.7 14/1  2/8  0.9 2.48 56/23 153

Hanrahan is a free agent after giving the Red Sox 7.1 really terrible innings this season. The team holds a $6M option on Thornton for 2014. Miller was outstanding before he lost his season to a lisfranc injury. Bailey tore his labrum and is an unknown for 2014. Uehara had an option for 2014 that just vested, so he should be back. Tazawa should be in the late-inning mix again, too, with the question being whether the Sox will go out and replace the lost Hanrahan/Bailey with someone more reliable for the 9th-inning role, or let Uehara come back as the incumbent.

Mariano Rivera (RHP, NYY) is the best closer in the modern era, period. He will be impossible for the Yankees to replace, as his ability remains intact and dependable consistency remains as well. David Robertson (RHP, NYY) missed his chance to audition last season when Rivera was hurt, as he too got hurt and then fell behind Rafael Soriano (RHP, NYY) on the depth chart. Robertson and Rivera have pitched extremely well in 2013:

NYY                SV  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9 xERA  G/F  BPV
=================  == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
Rivera             35 44.3  8.3  5.1  1.0 3.31 44/31 128
Robertson           1 49.7 10.9  4.0  0.7 2.70 47/32 147
Chamberlain         1 31.0  8.7  2.0  1.7 4.44 37/36  54
A.Warren            1 56.0  7.1  2.3  1.3 3.86 48/28  71
B.Logan (L)         0 33.3 12.2  4.5  1.6 2.77 46/38 170
S.Kelley            0 46.7 12.3  3.6  1.2 3.10 35/45 141
Claiborne           0 40.7  7.3  3.0  0.4 3.70 48/33  92

The Yankees may beg him to stay, but Rivera is retiring after this season. Joba Chamberlain (RHP, NYY) has only been so-so and is a free agent in search of a new home. Critical lefty Boone Logan (LHP, NYY) is an important free agent who may command a big salary. The Yankees will have Robertson, Adam Warren (RHP, NYY), retread Shawn Kelley (RHP, NYY) and Preston Claiborne (RHP, NYY) returning. The Yankees will need to address the left side of the pen either by re-signing Logan and adding a lefty, or signing two elite lefties. The Yankees will also need a better plan B than Warren. Robertson appears to be the first in line for 2014.

For a team that has starting pitching coming out of its ears, Tampa Bay is reluctant to turn some of that into quality relief like Orioles teams of the 1970s and instead muddle through. Fernando Rodney (RHP, TAM) has regressed from his 2012 year for the ages, but has been ok. Joel Peralta (RHP, TAM) has been less good after several decent years. Jake McGee (LHP, TAM) is a converted starter with superb stuff but disappointing results so far in 2013. Alexander Torres (RHP, TAM) is a converted starter who has been as good as anyone over the past month:

TAM                SV  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9 xERA  G/F  BPV
=================  == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
Rodney             27 47.7 12.5  2.2  0.6 3.20 50/23  99
Peralta             1 50.3  9.5  2.3  0.7 4.03 28/53  66
McGee (L)           1 45.7 11.0  3.3  1.2 3.16 42/35 128
C.Ramos (L)         1 49.0  6.8  2.6  0.6 4.10 41/33  72
Crain               0 36.7 11.3  4.2  0.0 3.12 35/41 143
W.Wright (L)        0 43.3  8.7  2.6  1.0 3.67 47/30  92
A.Torres (L)        0 38.7 11.4  3.3  0.2 2.75 46/39 135

Rodney is a free agent this offseason and the Rays will likely let him walk. So is Jesse Crain (RHP, TAM) who came over from the White Sox and is being counted on for the stretch run once he comes off of the disabled list some time in September—if he comes off at all. The Rays made an astute trade for lefty Wesley Wright (LHP, TAM) giving the Rays three monsters from the left side, with Torres and McGee. Cesar Ramos (LHP, TAM) is not terrible.

For 2014, expect the Rays to use Torres, if he continues at his 11.4/3.3/0.2 clip. McGee is not consistent enough to use right now, but the skills are elite. The Rays have a habit of coming up with a retread (see Rodney; Kyle Farnsworth) and making a useful closer out of him.

Finally, Toronto who scores runs by the bushel and has an elite bunch with four 100+ BPV relievers, but suffers from a less-than-stellar rotation. The Jays have had great success with closer Casey Janssen (RHP, TOR) so far this year. Brett Cecil (RHP, TOR) and Steve Delabar (RHP, TOR) have been wipe-out relievers with a 10.0+ Dom and strong BPIs. Cecil in particular combines huge Dom with a 50% GB rate. Here are the skills:

TOR                SV  IP   Dom  Cmd hr/9 xERA  G/F  BPV
=================  == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
Janssen            22 40.0  8.1  3.6  0.5 3.30 46/32 109
Loup (L)            2 59.3  6.4  4.7  0.8 3.10 58/24 114
Cecil               1 56.0 10.4  2.8  0.6 3.09 50/31 116
Delabar             1 49.7 13.6  3.0  0.5 3.24 29/47 129
Oliver (L)          0 40.0  7.2  2.5  1.1 3.76 49/32  78
Wagner              0 27.0  7.3  3.1  1.0 3.62 43/32  90
Santos              0 10.0  8.1  4.5  0.9 3.61 43/50 118

The Jays hold an affordable option on Janssen's contract; expect him to return. Darren Oliver (LHP, TOR) is likely to retire. Cecil, Delabar and Aaron Loup (LHP, TOR) are a nice core for 2014, but the team will have to supplement them. Delabar and Cecil have flashed closer-worthy skills, should the job open up. Cecil has the better skill set for long-term success, even with Delabar's crazy-good 13.6 Dom. Too many moving parts here as the Jays rebuild the pitching staff to call it accurately—at least at the moment. And don't forget Sergio Santos (RHP, TOR). Santos is great when healthy, but let's see that health before we pencil him into an important role.

Next week: the NL East.