(*) RELIEVERS: Blue Jays, Astros, Reds, Mets

Relief Pitchers

Doug Dennis

May 13 2014 11:04pm

(*) RELIEVERS: Blue Jays, Astros, Reds, Mets

Doug Dennis

May 13 2014

This week, the column looks hard at Toronto and then at some emerging issues in some other pens.

Toronto appears to have solved its closer issues by installing incumbent Casey Janssen back into the role fresh off the disabled list. As Matt Dodge suggested in the May 12 playing time column, Sergio Santos (RHP, TOR), Aaron Loup (LHP, TOR) and Brett Cecil (LHP, TOR) combined to blow five saves in 14 save opportunities in Janssen's absence since the start of the season. Here are the projections:

TOR               IP  Sv  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV 
==============   ==== == ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== ===
C.Janssen         45  28  8.2  4.1  0.6 3.03 47/31 119
Santos            45   0 10.6  2.8  0.6 3.15 47/37 113
Delabar           45   2 11.6  2.8  0.8 3.26 33/45 106
N.Wagner          22   0 10.2  2.8  1.2 3.30 39/40 102
Cecil (L)         56   2 10.0  2.5  0.8 3.37 48/33  97
Stroman           45   0  8.6  2.9  1.2 3.63 41/36  93
Loup (L)          56   0  6.9  2.9  0.6 3.35 55/25  92
Es.Rogers         45   0  7.2  2.1  1.2 4.17 45/33  61

This should be a very formidable pen. Seven relievers have a BPV over 90. Six have a xERA under 3.40. The worst Cmd ratio in that group is 2.5. Four Doms are 10.0 or higher. There are two elite lefties. So while Janssen is the best of the group, he is only a tick better than Santos from a projection standpoint and Santos is on the shelf. On paper, this is a terrific pen. The Blue Jays should be willing to yank starters early and play match-ups—the max benefit from a pen deep with seven skill sets at 90 BPV or higher. But here is what the first six weeks looked like:

TOR               IP  Sv  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA BPV    Clean  LI
==============   ==== == ==== ==== ==== ==== ===   ====== ====
Stroman           5.0  0  7.2  --   1.8 3.61 161     2/4  1.15
Es.Rogers        18.3  0  9.3  3.2  2.5 4.06 122     8/14 0.38
Cecil (L)        16.7  2 13.5  1.9  --  3.11 106    14/18 1.33
Santos           12.0  5 15.0  1.8  2.3 3.63  95     8/14 1.62
N.Wagner          8.7  0  6.2  2.0  --  4.59  35     5/9  1.14
Delabar          15.0  0  7.8  1.6  0.6 4.32  26    12/17 1.28
Loup (L)         17.3  2  7.3  1.4  --  3.92  21    11/16 1.18
C.Janssen         0.0  0  --   --   --   --   --     ---   --

Janssen will certainly help. But look at the miserable Cmd ratios. All of them are at or under 2.0 save Esmil Rogers (RHP, TOR) who was projected to be the weak sister here, as his 0.38 leverage index shows. Brett Cecil (LHP, TOR) managed a 13.5 Dom with a 1.9 Cmd ratio. That is a ton of walks. Santos has had a 15.0 Dom and 1.8 Cmd. Worse, Santos has a 2.3 HR/9 to date. Steve Delabar (RHP, TOR) has seen a massive downturn in Dom and corresponding 1.6 Cmd ratio. Aaron Loup (LHP, TOR), miscast as a closer, had a 1.4 Cmd ratio and 21 BPV. The pen that is so fantastic on paper has been killing the Jays. Look at the leverage indexes over 1.00. So Janssen will certainly help, but everyone needs to pitch better. If the shift of Jays pitchers is to move them back to familiar roles where they are built to succeed, owners should expect more of the projections over the balance of the season and less of the first six weeks.

Houston has four different relievers with saves: Chad Qualls (RHP, HOU), recently demoted Josh Fields (RHP, HOU), Anthony Bass (RHP, HOU) and Raul Valdes (RHP, HOU). What's next?

HOU               IP  Sv  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA BPV    Clean  LI   rLI
==============   ==== == ==== ==== ==== ==== ===   ====== ==== ====
Sipp (L)          4.0  0 15.8  --   --  0.69 322     3/3  2.49 2.49
Zeid              4.7  0 11.6  --   3.9 2.52 213     1/4  1.93 2.53
Qualls           12.0  2 10.5  4.7  0.8 2.68 164    10/14 0.84 1.07
D.Downs (L)       1.3  0  6.8  --   --  2.76 150     2/2  0.10 0.10
Albers           10.0  0  7.2  2.7  --  3.32  88     6/8  1.17 1.51
P.Clemens        13.7  0  3.3  1.2  2.0 4.98  12     1/5  0.75 0.75
A.Bass           18.0  2  2.0  0.8  1.5 5.00  -3     8/15 1.26 1.54
Cisnero           4.7  0  9.7  1.2  --  5.90 -26     3/5  1.14 1.14
R.Valdes          3.7  1  9.8  1.3  4.9 7.15 -36     4/8  1.33 1.33

We introduce a simple comparison here. Leverage index for the entire year (LI) is compared to leverage index for the past 30 days (rLI). Where rLI > LI, you have a reliever who's role is increasing. At this point, the data sets are too close together at this point to count on them fully, so context is needed. But once we are into June, this comparison will help you find the relievers who are getting important roles.

From a skills perspective, Bass and Valdes are lagging. The Astros use of Bass (-3 BPV, 1.26 LI) indicates that the team is putting too much faith in substandard skill sets. of the useful skill sets, Qualls and Matt Albers (RHP, HOU) are the two with 10+ innings. Tony Sipp (LHP, HOU) and Josh Zeid (RHP, HOU) are fresh replacements, but with only 4-5 innings each, are too new to evaluate on this year's numbers. Qualls, in particular, is having a stellar season to date. The 10.5 Dom is higher than expected and drives his 4.7 Cmd ratio and 164 BPV. Qualls may not be able to keep it up, but he is clearly the best skill set that the Astros have going in this pen.

Albers has no saves, but the 7.2 Dom and 2.7 Cmd with a 3.32 xERA and 88 BPV indicates that he may get one or some in the near term. Albers has a track record and is not the greatest reliever on the planet, but he is plenty good enough to get chances in the Astros pen behind Qualls. Based solely on the skills, expect Qualls and Albers to go up in value, and expect Bass and Valdes to go down in value.

The Reds have Aroldis Chapman (LHP, CIN) back early and he saved a game his first time out against the potent Colorado offense, hitting 100+ mph in the process. With Jonathan Broxton (RHP, CIN) slotting back into set-up and Sean Marshall (LHP, CIN) also active, here is how this pen reshuffles:

CIN               IP  Sv  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA BPV    Clean  LI
==============   ==== == ==== ==== ==== ==== ===   ====== ====
Chapman (L)       1.0  1 27.0  3.0  --  0.00 221     1/1  0.40
Ondrusek          9.3  0  8.7  4.5  1.0 3.66 138     6/10 1.05
Parra (L)        13.3  1 10.1  2.5  1.4 3.30  97    11/16 1.55
Marshall (L)      4.7  0  9.6  1.7  --  3.88  62     4/6  0.47
Broxton           9.0  5  8.0  1.6  --  3.98  32     8/9  1.20
LeCure           15.3  0  7.0  1.5  --  4.14  22    11/13 1.31
Christiani       13.0  0  5.5  1.3  1.4 4.72  15     6/10 0.50
Hoover           11.7  0 10.8  1.4  3.9 6.12  -8     6/13 1.33

Like Toronto's pen, this is a group that should benefit greatly from returning to familiar roles. Chapman has to be able to continue to throw strikes. The velocity is there. If Chapman can be elite out of the gate, then Broxton will return to primary set-up, freeing up Manny Parra (LHP, CIN) and Sam LeCure (RHP, CIN) for seventh inning roles. Marshall will move up if he can find his sea legs. J.J. Hoover (RHP, CIN) will see a marked downturn in leveraged outings until he can fix his Cmd ratio (1.4) and HR/9 (3.9).

After the quick hits last column, the Mets have seen the rise of Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM) in the set-up ranks. Here's how the skills-to-date line up:

NYM               IP  Sv  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA BPV    Clean  LI   rLI
==============   ==== == ==== ==== ==== ==== ===   ====== ==== ====
Valverde         15.3  2 11.2  2.7  2.3 3.72 106    10/15 0.94 0.61
G.Germen         17.7  0  8.7  3.4  1.5 3.81 103     9/13 1.61 1.92
C.Torres         21.0  1  9.9  2.3  0.4 3.50  89    13/19 1.34 1.28
J.Familia        17.3  0  7.3  1.8  0.5 3.97  49    10/15 0.84 0.77
Farnsworth       16.0  2  5.6  2.0  1.1 4.36  38     6/12 1.54 1.85
S.Rice (L)        9.0  0  5.0  1.0  --  4.09   4    13/19 2.21 2.19
Matsuzaka        13.7  1 11.9  1.4  --  4.38   3     7/10 0.77 0.77

Familia got off to a bad start and has been better for a few weeks in a row. Scouts love his stuff, too, so he could be for real. However, this skills line should cause buyers to pause a moment—the 1.8 Cmd ratio, 49 BPV and 0.84 LI indicate that he probably is not going to jump into the closer role imminently, unless the Mets are panicking.

Kyle Farnsworth (RHP, NYM) is an unsatisfactory closer with a 5.6 Dom and 38 BPV. Jose Valverde (RHP, NYM) has had the best BPV, but the 2.3 HR/9 is too high to use. Gonzalez Germen (RHP, NYM) has a very nice 103 BPV, but he too has a 1.5 HR/9 problem and is now on the disabled list. The guy who should get a look is Carlos Torres (RHP, NYM). But the Mets appear unwilling to move him from his flexible, multiple inning role. Daisuke Matsuzaka (RHP, NYM) still lurks, but his skills are the weakest, to date. This continues to be a situation worth watching. If Familia can keep throwing up zeroes, he will get chances. You should not wait for that, though. Pounce on Familia now if you can.

Next week, this column runs through the top BPV relievers in each league. Some of them may surprise you.