(*) RELIEVERS: ATL/SD aftermath and a look at BOS and NYY

Relief Pitchers

Doug Dennis

Apr 7 2015 11:04pm

(*) RELIEVERS: ATL/SD aftermath and a look at BOS and NYY

Doug Dennis

Apr 7 2015

We did not have to look far to uncover surprises from the first few days of the season. Just before Sunday's game-time of the Cardinals/Cubs opener, the Braves traded Craig Kimbrel (RHP, SD) to the Padres and started some ripples in the closer rankings, with Jason Grilli (RHP, ATL) assumed to get the bulk of the saves in Atlanta, and with Joaquín Benoit (RHP, SD) demoted to set-up and Kevin Quackenbush (RHP, SD) and Brandon Maurer (RHP, SD) demoted to Triple-A. Let's first take a look at the top of the Braves pen:

ATL            Sv  IP   ERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV R$
============   == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== === == 
Grilli         34  73  3.58 1.26 11.2  3.3  0.7 3.22 33/42 120  6
J.Johnson       6  58  3.57 1.36  8.5  2.4  0.8 3.19 60/22  95 -3
Avilan (L)      0  65  4.15 1.40  5.4  1.3  0.4 4.24 56/25  19 -8

Owners are going to jumping all over FAAB to get Grilli. He is owned in most NL-only leagues anyway in anticipation of this trade, although it certainly happened sooner than expected. The potential cheap buy here is Jim Johnson (RHP, ATL). Johnson will be the main set-up and one cannot help but notice the 60% groundball rate combined with all-world shortstop Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL) behind him. Given the solid infield and new league, Johnson may get a new lease on life. Grilli was not the healthiest guy last year and he is fairly long in the tooth at 38 years old. Missing out on Grilli might just mean capitalizing on Johnson cheaper. There is a reasonable chance that Johnson saves more than the projected six games over the course of the season.

The flip side of this is what happened to the Padres pen. Carnage, from a roto-perspective:

SD             Sv  IP   ERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV R$
============   == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== === == 
Kimbrel        38  65  2.08 0.88 12.5  3.6  0.4 2.36 44/33 153 20
Benoit          2  58  2.48 1.00 10.6  4.0  0.8 3.04 37/47 134  6
Thayer          0  58  3.26 1.14  8.4  3.9  1.1 3.40 40/39 110  0
S.Kelley        0  58  3.57 1.19 11.0  3.1  0.8 3.32 32/47 112 -1
Vincent         0  58  3.10 1.07  9.3  4.3  0.6 3.16 38/40 125  2
F.Garces (L)    0  36  3.25 1.22  9.0  2.8  1.0 3.43 44/36  96 -4

Kimbrel has to close. But that is no slight on Benoit and his skill set. The next three down the list are strong as well: Dale Thayer (RHP, SD), Shawn Kelley (RHP, SD) and Nick Vincent (RHP, SD) all boast BPV over 100, xERA under 3.50, Cmd ratios over 3.0 and Dom over 8.0. These are all high strikeout and low ERA/WHIP studs. Kelley and Vincent both failed spectacularly on Opening Day, however.

Here are the RH arms that the Padres cannot even deploy:

SD             Sv  IP   ERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV R$
============   == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== === == 
Quackenbush     0  44  2.86 1.16  9.4  2.9  0.4 3.37 37/37  96  0
Maurer          0  44  3.48 1.23  7.6  2.9  0.8 3.78 41/40  83 -4

How much did someone pay for Kevin Quackenbush (RHP, SD) in your league? From possible Plan B to Triple-A, through no fault of his own. And Brandon Maurer (RHP, SD) was lights-out in Seattle's pen the second half of 2014. He too had a solid spring. The Padres are not really maximizing their overall team value when forced to stash arms of this caliber in Triple-A. It means we should all expect more moves. Possibly Benoit to a team hunting for a closer, but frankly, any of these Padres right-handers have the ability to succeed as a closer.

Next, let's look at Boston with closer Koji Uehara (RHP, BOS) sidelined with a hamstring until April 13. The Red Sox schedule during that time includes three games at the Phillies and three games at the Yankees. That's a potential six saves right there! The closer for those games is Edward Mujica (RHP, BOS). Here are Mujica's projections as well as a couple others behind Uehara:

BOS            Sv  IP   ERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV R$
============   == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== === == 
Mujica          6  58  3.26 1.19  6.5  4.2  0.9 3.64 45/36  99 -1
Tazawa          2  65  3.18 1.26  9.1  3.7  0.8 3.38 38/37 113  0
Ogando          0  44  3.68 1.32  7.8  2.5  0.8 3.98 38/42  73 -5

Uehara is 40 years old. As good has he has been, it would be wise for Uehara owners to find the right handcuff in anticipation of various times throughout the year where Uehara may not be available. Mujica is that guy right now. He has a far lower Dom, but his 4.2 Cmd ratio is superb and he manages to keep the ball in the park. Junichi Tazawa (RHP, BOS) remains the best skill set with a far higher Dom and strong Cmd ratio and BPV, as well as a lower ERA and xERA. He is kept in-place as the main set-up whether the closer is Uehara or Mujica—for now. Alexi Ogando (RHP, BOS) has escaped Texas, but his better days may be behind him. He has solid skills, but is a step below Tazawa and Mujica and should not be rostered unless/until he exceeds his projections.

When Uehara returns and Mujica's owner looks to dump him, think about grabbing Mujica if you have the roster space and you may get a sprinkling of weeks like this one where he is the closer with games against the Phillies.

Another situation that is extremely interesting is the Yankees tandem of uber-skills closers, Dellin Betances (RHP, NYY) and Andrew Miller (LHP, NYY). We know the skills:

NYY            Sv  IP   ERA WHIP  Dom  Cmd HR/9 xERA  G/F  BPV R$
============   == ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ===== === == 
Betances       24  87  2.38 1.01 12.2  4.4  0.6 2.42 46/34 168 18
Miller (L)     14  65  2.63 1.09 13.9  3.7  0.7 2.19 49/29 175  9
Carpenter       2  73  3.58 1.30  8.4  3.1  1.0 3.65 39/38  95 -2

What is uncertain is how this is going to play out. Betances took a lot of multiple inning stints last season in set-up, which is more flexible than closing. Miller was ridiculous in set-up, but did not close many games. So the Yankees have some choices to make with respect to how they deploy these uber-skill sets to bridge from end of the sixth inning through the end. The Yankees also have David Carpenter (RHP, NYY) and he will help. But the goal has to be to use Betances and Miller for as many leveraged innings as possible, and that could wreak some havoc on the save totals for one or the other, which is what roto-owners care about the most. Be alert to patterns in the early-going and be ready to adjust if the saves and situations are not going according to expectations/projections.

Just some quick hits: the Dodgers first save went to Chris Hatcher (RHP, LA). Joel Peralta (RHP, LA) got the win late in that one. Stay tuned to that fluid situation. Also, with Carlos Torres (RHP, NYM) used in the seventh and Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM) used in the eighth, Jenrry Mejia (RHP, NYM) had an elbow issue warming up for the ninth and had to hand the save over to Buddy Carlyle (RHP, NYM). No structural damage was found, but Mejia is still going onto the 15-day DL, which means Familia takes over the Mets saves for the next two weeks.

Next week, we start the look at what kind of damage has been done as relievers continue to hone their command.

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