(*) MARKET PULSE: 2015 Second basemen

Market Pulse

Matthew Cederholm

Feb 2 2015 12:05am

(*) MARKET PULSE: 2015 Second basemen

Matthew Cederholm

Feb 2 2015

Please note that this is an exercise in identifying the gaps between the valuation of the "popular" market ("ADP" below) and that of BaseballHQ.com. As such, not every eligible player is covered in this article. If a player is not mentioned, readers can safely assume that there is little difference between the popular ranking and the BaseballHQ.com ranking. Each hitter is being considered at his scarcest qualified position (in order: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B), as it is the scarcest eligible position that typically drives fantasy value. The rankings are a risk- and position-adjusted estimate using current BaseballHQ.com projections. They are not the "official" BaseballHQ.com straight-draft rankings, but they should be close.

Note that this article assumes a standard 15-team, mixed, 5x5 league, though the recommendations here will generally apply in most formats.

Previous articles in this series: C/DH | SS

(NFBC ADP Report)

There's a definite changing of the guard at second base, with Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon sliding up and stalwarts like Robinson Canó, Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler sliding a bit. We'll see if it's truly warranted.

The early rounds

As with shortstops, there aren't many egregious differences among the top four, but there are a few things worth noting.

Anthony Rendon (2B/3B, WAS; ADP: 12, HQ: 26) has made it to the first round. Rendon is a terrific player, and young enough to do some more growing. His 10% hr/f in 2014 doesn't square well with his 126 PX and 146 xPX, so more homers could be on the horizon. However, his 600+ AB will be difficult to repeat (though the injury issues that plagued him in college seem to be behind him). More importantly, his ADP assumes significant growth. Those who put Bryce Harper (OF, WAS) into the first round in 2014 made a similar mistake. Remember the adage "don't pay for performance a player hasn't yet achieved" and look elsewhere in Round 1.

Robinson Canó (2B, SEA; ADP 22, HQ: 12) is going near the end of the second, his lowest ADP in, like, forever. His 2014 decline wasn't due as much to his home park as it was a significant decline in power, as his HH% dropped from 39% to 28%. This is something we might expect as a player nears his mid-30s, though he's barely past his peak years, so a regression is likely. Still, this early in the draft, you don't want to pin your hopes on that. The GMs probably have it right here.

That brings us to Dee Gordon (2B, MIA; ADP: 41, HQ: 60). His 64 SB in 2014 is, well, eye-catching, to be sure. But we'll go out on a limb and say he won't get back to 50 in 2015. His breakout was mainly a first-half phenomenon, as bb% and power plummeted in the second half, when his xOBA was .275—not a mark that gives one a lot of opportunities. His SB% fell below 70% in the second half, as well. Furthermore, his new team attempted fewer stolen bases in 2014 than Gordon stole. While much of that is due to lack of speed, it's an open question whether manager Mike Redmond will send Gordon at the same 50% clip he saw in 2014. He's not worth the reach.

The early middle

Hey, would you like a 20/20 middle infielder who's still around in the 5th round? Meet Brian Dozier (2B, MIN; ADP: 69, HQ: 49). Maybe GMs are scared off by his mid-.240s BA, but that's only 10-12 points behind the league average, and his 2014 xBA (.257) is above average. Hitting at the top of the order, he's a runs machine, as well. He's a great pick in the fourth round.

We'll resist the "wrong" pun here with Kolten Wong (2B, STL; ADP: 101, HQ: 178) and just point out that he's going five full rounds ahead of our projection, most likely based on his 11 2H home runs in 2014. While he's capable of some growth, recent research suggests that his hr/f from 2014 could be an outlier, and needs to be viewed with mistrust. As the Baseball Forecaster pointed out, his PX trend is good, but we need to see another strong power season to believe. His draft value is probably halfway between his ADP and BaseballHQ.com forecasts based on his upside, but that still leaves you reaching by 35-40 spots, when there are proven veterans like Neil Walker (2B, PIT) and Daniel Murphy (2B, NYM) still around, as well as...

The late middle

...Howie Kendrick (2B, LA; ADP: 163, HQ: 57). The risk here is that 2014 is the beginning of his decline phase, though really the only difference was his hr/f correcting. The move across town may yield another home run or two, but otherwise, view his 2012 (.287 BA, 8 HR, 14 SB) as a reasonable expectation. A few years, ago a .287 BA wasn't all that exciting, but it's 35 points above league average, and it's not empty, as he's projected to yield double-digit HR and SB. Certainly worthy of being your starter if you get to the 8th or 9th without one.

So Arismendy Alcántara (2B/OF, CHC; ADP: 214, HQ: 344) is probably worth a good bump based on his upside. His .205 BA in 2014 shows his downside, but his PX/Spd combination (143/154 MLE in 2014) is undeniably exciting. He's not projected to have a full-time role, but if he works his way into it, a .230/20/20-type season is possible. Then again, so is a .195 BA and a May demotion. Such is youth. Reach, but keep it reasonable.

Take Chase Utley (2B, PHI; ADP: 218, HQ: 153) instead? Perhaps. He's had five straight years of 11-16 HR, above-average xBA, and all but one season of double-digit steals. But he's 37, and his PX and xPX nosedived in the second half. If he was 10 years younger, we could talk about regression, but at his age, it could just be... age. He still has a strong season within him, but his risk is elevated. Given the choice, we'll go with Alcantara's risk-with-upside over Utley's risk-with-downside.

The end game

Scooter Gennett (2B, MIL; ADP: 191, HQ: 270) isn't very exciting, but he's an end-game player who gives you help in five categories. His projected .277 BA isn't flashy, but it's enough to raise your team BA by a point or two. He has potential, too, for double-digit steals and homers. He's sticking around to the 18th round, but he's good to grab three or four rounds earlier.

One thing we know about Aaron Hill (2B, ARI; ADP: 282, HQ: 219) is that he's as unpredictable and inconsistent as they come. His 116 xPX from 2014 shows that he still has some vestiges of power remaining, and all he needs for his BA to recover is a bit more power and a point or two uptick in contact. At 33, regression isn't guaranteed, but for Hill, nothing ever is. In the 19th round, you're getting a middle infielder who's likely to hit 10 HR and not kill your BA; anything beyond that is gravy, and he still has gravy left to serve up. Could be a steal in the 16th-17th.

So the draft pool is dwindling down and you need to fill your middle infield slot. You could do worse than Omar Infante (2B, KC; ADP: 326, HQ: 201). He's past his peak, for sure, but not so old that he can't rebound a bit from his down year. His 2014 would be worth a late-round pick, and any regression would build on that.

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