(*) FIRST IMPRESSIONS: Carroll, Yoshida, Jung, Outman, E. Ruiz
May 7 2023
First Impressions is a look at recent call-ups, a snapshot of their early progress so far in the majors. Initial BaseballHQ.com Call-Ups reports on all of the players in today's column can be found in the News tab on their individual PlayerLink pages (linked from the player name below). Because many of these players have accumulated less than 125 PA or 50 IP in the majors, small sample size warnings apply to the analysis here.
First Impression: Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI)
CALLED UP: 8/29/2022
BASEBALLHQ PROSPECT RATING: 10D
CURRENT ROLE: Starting OF
POTENTIAL ROLE: Starting CF
2023 MINORS STATS: None
Year PA BA xBA bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBA HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ======= ===== 2022^ 434 .244 N/A 10 67 N/A N/A 134/N/A N/A 150/N/A 13/18 22MLB 115 .260 .286 7 70 80 48/25/27 171/ 71 20% 141/15% 4/ 2 2023 113 .314 .281 8 75 107 42/18/39 147/116 17% 154/44% 5/10 ^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
He's already improving upon his late-season 2022 debut:
- Carroll got his first crack at the majors over the last five weeks of the 2022 season, posting an .830 OPS, and so far this year, he's looked even better. His contact, HctX, and xPX are all showing signs of growth, and while his xBA suggests he's not yet a true .300 hitter, the belief is that he'll get there eventually.
- The most exciting growth has come in his power skills, where in addition to raising his HctX and xPX, he's hitting more fly balls, and all of his Statcast metrics are up: he's increased his exit velocity from 85.8 mph in 2022 to 91.4, his Barrel% from 5.5% to 11.7%, and his Launch Angle from 9.1% to 13.7%. He's on a 25-HR pace with solid skill support, with room to potentially continue growing from there.
- There are still some bumps to smooth out against left-handed pitchers. While he has improved from a .590 OPS vs. LHP in 2022 to a .917 OPS in 2023, a lot of that is due to going from a 24% hit rate to a 42% one. His contact rate against southpaws is up in 2023 (86%, compared to 75% in 2022), but his PX is down (70, compared to 132). Since both seasons are very tiny samples, his overall MLB numbers vs. LHP are more informative: .281 BA, .755 OPS, 81% contact, and 93 PX. So although he's hitting for a lower OPS and less power against lefties, he has a higher contact rate against them; that's a good place to start.
- The new MLB rules that have led to increased base stealing seem to be benefitting him greatly, as he's already on a 50-SB pace for the season. His Spd scores have been consistently elite, his Statcast sprint speed ranks in the 100th percentile, and he's tripled his SBA% while also improving his success rate from 67% in 2022 to 83% this year. A .381 OBP has helped, so if his BA regresses a little as his skills indicate it might, his pace will likely drop off, but even so, he could be looking at 30 SB minimum.
The 22-year-old Carroll entered this season as one of the best prospects in baseball and ranked #1 on our BaseballHQ Top 100 Prospects list, and he has lived up to the hype so far. And with $36 in rotisserie value, he's already establishing himself as one of the most valuable players in fantasy. BA and SB regression might take a small bite out of that value as the season wears on, but that's a very minor concern; he looks like a National League Rookie of the Year candidate with a promising future ahead of him.
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First Impression: Masataka Yoshida (OF/DH, BOS)
CALLED UP: 3/30/2023
BASEBALLHQ PROSPECT RATING: 9D
CURRENT ROLE: Starting LF/DH
POTENTIAL ROLE: Starting LF
2023 MINORS STATS: None
Year PA BA xBA HR bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F ==== === ==== ==== == === === ==== ======== ======= ==== 2023 125 .315 .312 6 10 90 131 60/13/27 108/ 92 23%
A better-than-expected start with questions about sustainability:
- Yoshida was a career .327 hitter in Japan, with a high walk/OBP approach and a couple of seasons of 20-HR power, and so far, he's looked like the same hitter here in the States. His .300+ BA has come with xBA support thanks to an elite contact rate and plenty of hard contact. His 31% hit rate suggests there hasn't been any luck involved. And his plate discipline has been as good as advertised—his 1.18 Eye ranks 10th in the majors.
- The skill support hasn't been as strong for his power, where an extremely high ground ball rate is going to make it hard for him to sustain his current 25-HR pace, a concern also reflected by the gap between his PX and xPX. His Statcast metrics have been above average (89.9 mph exit velocity, 10.2% Barrel%, 49.0% HardHit%), so the issue really comes down to that batted-ball output. In mid-April, he opened up his batting stance slightly to see the ball better, and since April 20th, he's hit .433 with a 1.244 OPS and 5 of his 6 HR. During that same time period, he lowered his GB% to 55% while raising his FB% to 29%; not as much of a shift as we'd like to see, but it bears watching as his sample size grows. Any regression in his power would start to erode his xBA, possibly bringing it below .300.
- His platoon splits have been solid so far, with a .276 BA, .846 OPS, 16% BB%, 83% contact rate, and 73 PX vs. LHP, compared to a .329 BA, .969 OPS, 8% BB%, 92% contact, and 120 PX against righties. His status as an everyday player looks pretty secure thus far.
The 29-year-old Yoshida had a 207 ADP this spring, reflecting the concerns some fantasy managers had about his transition to MLB, but so far, he has outperformed those expectations. His elite plate discipline is a terrific asset, and while there are still questions about how much power he'll be able to maintain over a full season, it's hard to imagine him falling too far with such a strong batting eye. Keep an eye on his groundball rate going forward, as that should help shed some light on where his power skills will settle in for the remainder of 2023.
First Impression: Josh Jung (3B, TEX)
CALLED UP: 9/9/2022
BASEBALLHQ PROSPECT RATING: 9D
CURRENT ROLE: Starting 3B
POTENTIAL ROLE: Starting 2B/3B
2023 MINORS STATS: None
Year PA BA xBA HR bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F ==== === ==== ==== == === === ==== ======== ======= ==== 2021^ 342 .288 N/A 15 7 72 N/A N/A 136/N/A N/A 2022+ 106 .273 N/A 3 4 70 N/A N/A N/A/N/A N/A 22MLB 102 .204 .234 5 4 60 98 41/25/34 161/155 25% 2023 122 .265 .256 8 7 65 108 34/24/42 163/174 26% ^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs +Triple-A stats (Not MLEs)
His power skills are carrying the profile right now:
- Jung's biggest asset has always been his power, and that has held up so far in the majors, as he's posted impressive skills that have grown even stronger in 2023. He's hitting a lot of fly balls and backing them with plus hard contact, resulting in elite marks in PX, xPX, and HR/F. His exit velocity has only been league average (88.5 mph), but it still represents an improvement of 3.0 mph over 2022, and his 13.5% Barrel% rate has been very good, ranking in the 81st percentile. He's on a 35-HR pace, and there's not much here to put a damper on that.
- That said, the one thing that could still prove to be a stumbling block is his subpar contact rate. He's improved it slightly from 2022, but there's still more swing-and-miss in his game than you'd like to see, and because of that, any dip in contact rate or his power output could send his xBA slumping toward the .234 xBA he owned last season. Don't expect his current BA to last.
- His platoon splits are still pretty stark. Over 2022 and 2023 combined, he's hitting just .199 with a .625 OPS and a 60% contact rate against right-handed pitchers. He's still hitting for power against righties (career 121 PX), but it's nothing compared to how he fares against left-handers: .323 BA, 1.051 OPS, 71% contact, 225 PX, including 7 HR in just 67 PA. If you play daily fantasy, he's a very strong option anytime the Rangers are facing a lefty.
The 25-year-old Jung is one of the game's best hitting prospects and ranked #19 on our BaseballHQ Top 100 Prospects list this spring. He's already starting to live up to his potential as a middle-of-the-order run producer, and looks like a long-term fantasy asset. In the short-term, his contact issues and struggles vs. RHP could create some ups and downs for 2023, so be patient with him during any rough stretches, and you'll hopefully be rewarded with more home runs in bunches.
First Impression: James Outman (OF, LA)
CALLED UP: 7/30/2022, 3/30/2023
BASEBALLHQ PROSPECT RATING: 8D
CURRENT ROLE: Starting OF
POTENTIAL ROLE: Starting OF
2023 MINORS STATS: None
Year PA BA xBA bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBA HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ======= ===== 2021# 187 .236 N/A 7 64 N/A N/A 115/N/A N/A 83/N/A 6/ 1 2022^ 558 .227 N/A 8 61 N/A N/A 151/N/A N/A 99/N/A 21/ 8 22MLB 16 .462 .276 13 46 168 33/33/33 433/194 50% 107/ 0% 1/ 0 2023 126 .282 .254 11 61 99 40/18/43 202/123 24% 133/17% 7/ 4 #Double-A MLEs ^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
His prospect stock has been on the rise:
- While in the minors, Outman worked on retooling his swing and toning down his leg kick while also trying to become more selective at the plate, and those efforts seem to have paid off. His HR output increased in Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, and that has carried over to the majors in 2023, where he's off to a hot start and a 30-HR pace. xPX suggests some regression is likely, and his HctX and 89.8 mph exit velocity are both right around league average, though he has a high fly ball rate and an elite Barrel% (16.4%).
- His .282 BA is even more likely to regress, as his xBA is nearly 30 points lower, and would slide even further if his PX were to decline. His contact rates have been consistently subpar, and he hasn't been hitting many line drives, though the 30% LD% he posted in the minors in 2022 suggests that his current batted-ball output isn't necessarily reflective of his true skills. More line drives would help offset some of the impact of power regression on his BA; for now, it's probably best to be prepared for the possibility of an average closer to .240 for the remainder of the season.
- It's hard to get a read on his performance vs. left-handed pitching, as the sample size is still small (31 PA), and his .333 BA and 1.026 OPS in 2023 are wildly inflated by a 54% hit rate. There are positives (19% BB%, 170 PX) as well as negatives (58% contact) in his platoon skills, so it's something to keep an eye on as the sample grows.
- Speed has become a nice addition to his value, as he's gradually increased his Spd score over the last three seasons, and has a Statcast sprint speed that ranks in the 88th percentile. Judging by his SBA%, the Dodgers seem pretty comfortable letting him run; if that keeps up, he could be looking at 15-20 SB for the season.
Outman, who turns 26 on May 14th, is a bit of a late bloomer who has raised his profile over the last year or two—he was a 7th-round draft pick and was rated a 7D in our Call-Ups column when he joined the Dodgers last summer. He earned an 8D this spring and looks like a greatly improved hitter at this point. Regressions in his BA and HR may mean that his current value ($30) is at its peak for the 2023 season, but he should remain a strong contributor, and in the long term, could eventually get back to the kind of plus value he's delivering now.
First Impression: Esteury Ruiz (OF, OAK)
CALLED UP: 7/12/2022, 9/1/2022, 3/30/2023
BASEBALLHQ PROSPECT RATING: 7C
CURRENT ROLE: Starting CF
POTENTIAL ROLE: Starting OF
2023 MINORS STATS: None
Year PA BA xBA bb% ct% HctX GB/LD/FB PX/xPX HR/F Spd/SBA HR/SB ==== === ==== ==== === === ==== ======== ======= ==== ======= ===== 2021# 353 .214 N/A 7 74 N/A N/A 78/N/A N/A 138/N/A 7/28 2022^ 540 .273 N/A 10 74 N/A N/A 102/N/A N/A 150/N/A 11/59 22MLB 36 .171 .229 3 80 37 48/19/33 49/ 13 0% 154/60% 0/ 1 2023 139 .276 .257 3 81 65 40/27/33 57/ 62 0% 133/55% 0/15 #Double-A MLEs ^Double-A/Triple-A MLEs
Elite speed waiting on other skills to develop:
- When Ruiz stole 85 bases in the minors in 2022 (converted to 59 SB via MLEs), it's safe to say he grabbed the attention of steal-starved fantasy managers, and he has delivered on that value potential very well in 2023. He's running in just over half of his opportunities, and doing so with an elite success rate of 94% and a Statcast sprint speed in the 98th percentile, with help from an above-average .346 OBP.
- But his ability to maintain his current 60-SB pace could hinge upon whether he can keep his batting average in the above-average territory it currently occupies. His xBA is already slightly lower, and his MLB contact rate has been higher than his minor league MLEs. Plus, his high line drive rate could regress as well. (Though to be fair, while with San Diego in 2022, he did post a 33% LD% over 353 PA in Double-A, and a 27% LD% over 152 PA in Triple-A.) Any slides in ct% or LD% could send his xBA down to .240 or lower, and take a bite out of his stolen base opportunities.
- He showed league-average power in Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, and the belief is that he will eventually bring some of that power to the majors. It has not been evident thus far, as his HctX and PX/xPX are all far below league average, his exit velocity ranks in the 9th percentile, and his Barrel% ranks in the 13th percentile. Waiting on his power to develop may require serious long-term patience, with a real chance that it won't pan out as hoped.
The 24-year-old Ruiz ranked 75th on our BaseballHQ Top 100 Prospects list and has lived up to expectations so far, but he'll probably be hard-pressed to maintain his current $34 in rotisserie value, as his batting average/OBP and steals pace both seem likely to come down a bit, though playing for the struggling A's will likely to allow him to stick in the lineup even if he does slump. His long-term outlook is still uncertain: if the power develops, he's a much more well-rounded and stable source of value; without it, he's a one-trick pony who might eventually be replaced in the lineup by a better option.
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