(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Villar, Gonzalez, Hammel, Roark, Dahl
Aug 18 2016
Villar running wild ... In Houston, Jonathan Villar (SS, MIL) had a hard time even staying on the big league roster, as 70 percent of his plate appearances a season ago were at the Triple-A level. Fast forward a year, and he's batting over .300, and fighting for the major league stolen base crown. What has happened, and can he keep it up?
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA OBP bb% ct% G/L/F h% Hctx PX hr/f Spd SBO ==== === ===== ==== ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === ==== === === 2013* 549 8/42 .246 .249 .308 8 68 66/20/14 35 84 91 6% 142 40% 2014* 453 9/34 .213 .218 .279 8 67 51/19/30 30 85 91 13% 104 41% 2015* 396 6/31 .241 .239 .292 7 70 57/20/23 33 73 84 10% 139 45% 2016 431 9/46 .299 .259 .384 12 70 59/22/20 41 100 102 16% 109 41% *Includes MLEs
Improved skills and better fortune have both played a role in Villar's breakout:
- His Spd score isn't elite, and he's been caught on 16 of his 62 stolen base attempts, but he's undoubtedly fast, and running every chance he gets.
- He's still striking out a lot, and while the combination of his speed and low fly ball rate can be expected to lead to a high hit rate, his current 41 percent mark is over his head. Don't expect him to continue to hit .300.
- He's been extremely patient, drawing a lot of walks, and ranking sixth in the majors in pitches per plate appearance. The result has been a .384 on-base-percentage, which has led to a lot of stolen base opportunities.
- He's showing a little more power than expected, but doesn't hit the ball in the air very often. An inflated home run per fly ball rate has fueled the surge, but shouldn't be counted on to continue.
Going into the season, Villar clearly offered plenty of upside thanks to his speed, but it was unclear if he'd hold onto a starting role all year. He's rewarded those who invested in him, combining a high batting average with huge stolen base numbers, and even providing some power to boot. Both his hit rate and home run per fly ball rate are likely to slip, so he'll have a hard time maintaining the torrid pace he's on now. Still, Villar will continue to get the green light, and should be an elite stolen base source for the foreseeable future.
Gonzalez lacking power ... Adrián González (1B, LA) has been about as reliable as any hitter in the game over the past decade, but with just six week left in the season, he's stuck on 12 home runs. Is the power stroke going to resurface?
Year AB HR BA xBA bb% ct% G/L/F h% HctX PX xPX hr/f ==== === == ==== ==== === === ======== == ==== === === ==== 2012 629 18 .299 .279 6 83 40/24/36 34 121 111 134 10% 2013 583 22 .293 .272 7 83 38/23/39 32 123 110 138 11% 2014 591 27 .276 .292 9 81 38/24/38 30 136 145 145 15% 2015 571 28 .275 .290 10 81 37/26/37 30 129 127 153 16% 2106 420 12 .298 .269 10 79 49/26/25 35 107 89 88 14%
A power resurgence is not something Gonzalez owners should bank on:
- He's been a solid power source throughout his career, topping out at 40 home runs in 2009, and hitting 20 or more in nine of the last 10 seasons. He's likely to fall short of that mark this year, as his power metrics are in decline.
- His current fly ball rate is by far a career low.
- A high hit rate has helped him exceed his xBA by a pretty wide margin this season. But after striking out quite a bit over the first two months of the season (76 percent contact rate), he has an 82 percent contact rate since the beginning of June, and should continue to be a batting average asset.
Gonzalez has been rock solid throughout his career, annually accumulating high at-bat totals with a strong batting average and plus power. He's once again providing the first two in 2016, but his power is severely lacking, and showing little signs of returning to form. Gonzalez is hitting the ball on the ground way more than he ever has before, and his lousy .140 ISO is a career worst. He can still be counted on to hit for a high average, but at age 34, it's fair to wonder if his days as a power hitter are over.
Hammel good, but not this good ... Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC) was cruising along with a 2.58 ERA at the end of June, but a 10-earned-run shellacking on July 1 elevated his ERA almost a run to 3.45. He's since righted the ship, and with a string of three consecutive scoreless outings, has his ERA down to 2.75 on the season. Is this his best season yet?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2012 118 3.43 3.48 3.2 8.6 2.7 57% 11% 53/19/28 30 74 10% 100 2013 139 4.97 4.52 3.1 6.2 2.0 56% 8% 40/22/38 31 70 13% 46 2014 176 3.47 3.53 2.2 8.1 3.6 57% 10% 40/22/38 28 74 12% 103 2015 171 3.74 3.57 2.1 9.1 4.3 61% 11% 38/25/37 30 73 13% 122 2016 134 2.75 3.95 2.8 7.6 2.7 59% 10% 45/18/37 24 80 12% 83
Hammel's skills have actually taken a step back in 2016:
- It was surprising that he struck out more than a batter per inning a season ago, and both his Dom and SwK have predictably regressed this year.
- He kept the walks to a minimum in 2014 and the first half of 2015, but has followed it up with a 2.9 Ctl in the second half and 2.8 this season. Given his below average FpK, his current mark is in line with what should be expected of him.
- He's had issues with the long ball in recent years, so it's encouraging that he's bumped up his ground ball rate a bit this season.
- His home run per fly ball rate is again above the league average, but he's had luck on his side with regards to his hit and strand rates.
Hammel has faded in the second half each of the last two seasons, but is going strong right now, having allowed only six runs in seven starts since his debacle against the Mets. That being said, his BPIs aren't as strong as they have been, as he's walking more batters and striking out fewer than he has the past couple seasons. Hammel should continue to be solid, and with a potent lineup behind him, will keep racking up the wins. But his xERA shows how lucky he's been so far, and when his hit and strand rates correct, his ERA is likely to rise.
Roark outpitching his skills ... After posting a 2.85 ERA as a starter in 2014, Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) didn't even crack the team's Opening Day rotation in 2015. He ended up making 12 starts, but in all, recorded a 4.38 ERA and 5.7 Dom. He got his starting job back for 2016, and is at it again, with a 2.81 ERA. Was last year the outlier?
Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd FpK SwK G/L/F H% S% hr/f BPV ==== === ==== ==== === === === === === ======== == == ==== === 2013* 159 3.04 2.60 1.8 5.8 3.3 71% 7% 50/24/26 28 72 3% 99 2014 199 2.85 3.80 1.8 6.3 3.5 65% 9% 41/21/38 28 77 7% 84 2015 111 4.38 4.17 2.1 5.7 2.7 60% 8% 48/22/31 30 71 15% 71 2016 157 2.81 3.81 2.8 7.3 2.6 59% 9% 51/20/29 28 78 8% 86 *Includes MLEs
Roark's BPIs don't support this level of success:
- He's getting a few more swings and misses this year, but his SwK is still below average. His Dom has slipped to 6.2 in the second half and may continue to trend downward.
- He's been very stingy with the free passes prior to this season, but has had a little more trouble in that area this year, particularly early on, when he walked 20 batters in his first eight starts (3.6 Ctl). He's been better since, but his below average FpK doesn't hint at a return to previous levels.
- He is doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground, and has been aided by a home park that reduces home runs for hitters from both sides (-20% LHB, -12% RHB), allowing just four there in 84 innings.
- The three lowest scoring teams in the majors are in his division (Mets, Phillies, Braves), and he's feasted on them, with a 0.81 ERA across 44 1/3 innings. Against everyone else, he has a 3.59 ERA.
Roark's ground ball tilt sets a solid foundation, but these aren't the skills of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Given that he doesn't miss a ton of bats, his 7.8 first half Dom was a little over his head, and has started to correct, and he's been more generous with the walks this year. Roark should get plenty more chances against the weak NL East offenses, so he will be a viable option in most any format, but don't expect his ERA to stay this low.
First Impression: David Dahl (OF, COL)
STATS: Hartford/Albuquerque (AA/AAA) – 350 AB, .314/.394/.569, 27 2B, 18 HR, 0.47 Eye, 17 SB
CURRENT ROLE: Starting OF
POTENTIAL: Starting OF
RATING: 9C
Year AB HR/SB BA xBA bb% ct% h% HctX PX xPX Spd ==== === ===== ==== ==== === === === ==== === === === 2015* 288 6/18 .274 N/A 3 75 N/A N/A 96 N/A 152 2016 84 3/0 .345 .278 7 69 47 89 154 89 140 *MLEs
Dahl is off to a hot start:
- He had a 73 percent contact rate in the minors this season, and has struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats in the majors. His home park typically yields high hit rates, but his current 47 percent mark is clearly unsustainable.
- He showed much-improved power prior to his call-up, and it's been on display during his brief time with the Rockies as well.
- He's yet to attempt a stolen base, but with three triples already, and 17 steals in the minors this year, there's no denying he possesses outstanding speed.
Dahl ranked number 33 in this year's HQ100, and certainly hasn't disappointed. The 22-year-old displayed improved power and plus speed during half a season in the minors, and his success has carried over to the majors. His propensity to strike out, along with an extremely inflated hit rate, suggest that a fairly significant batting average correction is looming. But Coors Field sets a nice floor in that category, and with his power/speed combo, he could quickly emerge as a five-category stud.
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