(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Villar, Gonzalez, Hammel, Roark, Dahl

Villar running wild ... In Houston, Jonathan Villar (SS, MIL) had a hard time even staying on the big league roster, as 70 percent of his plate appearances a season ago were at the Triple-A level. Fast forward a year, and he's batting over .300, and fighting for the major league stolen base crown. What has happened, and can he keep it up?

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA   OBP  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  Hctx   PX  hr/f  Spd  SBO  
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===
2013* 549   8/42  .246  .249  .308    8   68  66/20/14  35    84   91    6%  142  40%
2014* 453   9/34  .213  .218  .279    8   67  51/19/30  30    85   91   13%  104  41%
2015* 396   6/31  .241  .239  .292    7   70  57/20/23  33    73   84   10%  139  45%
2016  431   9/46  .299  .259  .384   12   70  59/22/20  41   100  102   16%  109  41%
*Includes MLEs

Improved skills and better fortune have both played a role in Villar's breakout:

• His Spd score isn't elite, and he's been caught on 16 of his 62 stolen base attempts, but he's undoubtedly fast, and running every chance he gets.
• He's still striking out a lot, and while the combination of his speed and low fly ball rate can be expected to lead to a high hit rate, his current 41 percent mark is over his head. Don't expect him to continue to hit .300.
• He's been extremely patient, drawing a lot of walks, and ranking sixth in the majors in pitches per plate appearance. The result has been a .384 on-base-percentage, which has led to a lot of stolen base opportunities.
• He's showing a little more power than expected, but doesn't hit the ball in the air very often. An inflated home run per fly ball rate has fueled the surge, but shouldn't be counted on to continue.

Going into the season, Villar clearly offered plenty of upside thanks to his speed, but it was unclear if he'd hold onto a starting role all year. He's rewarded those who invested in him, combining a high batting average with huge stolen base numbers, and even providing some power to boot. Both his hit rate and home run per fly ball rate are likely to slip, so he'll have a hard time maintaining the torrid pace he's on now. Still, Villar will continue to get the green light, and should be an elite stolen base source for the foreseeable future.

 

Gonzalez lacking power ... Adrián González (1B, LA) has been about as reliable as any hitter in the game over the past decade, but with just six week left in the season, he's stuck on 12 home runs. Is the power stroke going to resurface?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ===  ====
2012  629  18  .299  .279   6    83  40/24/36  34   121  111  134   10%  
2013  583  22  .293  .272   7    83  38/23/39  32   123  110  138   11%
2014  591  27  .276  .292   9    81  38/24/38  30   136  145  145   15%
2015  571  28  .275  .290  10    81  37/26/37  30   129  127  153   16%
2106  420  12  .298  .269  10    79  49/26/25  35   107   89   88   14%

A power resurgence is not something Gonzalez owners should bank on:

• He's been a solid power source throughout his career, topping out at 40 home runs in 2009, and hitting 20 or more in nine of the last 10 seasons. He's likely to fall short of that mark this year, as his power metrics are in decline.
• His current fly ball rate is by far a career low.
• A high hit rate has helped him exceed his xBA by a pretty wide margin this season. But after striking out quite a bit over the first two months of the season (76 percent contact rate), he has an 82 percent contact rate since the beginning of June, and should continue to be a batting average asset.

Gonzalez has been rock solid throughout his career, annually accumulating high at-bat totals with a strong batting average and plus power. He's once again providing the first two in 2016, but his power is severely lacking, and showing little signs of returning to form. Gonzalez is hitting the ball on the ground way more than he ever has before, and his lousy .140 ISO is a career worst. He can still be counted on to hit for a high average, but at age 34, it's fair to wonder if his days as a power hitter are over.

 

Hammel good, but not this good ... Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC) was cruising along with a 2.58 ERA at the end of June, but a 10-earned-run shellacking on July 1 elevated his ERA almost a run to 3.45. He's since righted the ship, and with a string of three consecutive scoreless outings, has his ERA down to 2.75 on the season. Is this his best season yet? 

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%  S%  hr/f  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ========  ==  ==  ====  ===
2012  118  3.43  3.48  3.2  8.6  2.7  57%  11%  53/19/28  30  74   10%  100
2013  139  4.97  4.52  3.1  6.2  2.0  56%   8%  40/22/38  31  70   13%   46
2014  176  3.47  3.53  2.2  8.1  3.6  57%  10%  40/22/38  28  74   12%  103
2015  171  3.74  3.57  2.1  9.1  4.3  61%  11%  38/25/37  30  73   13%  122
2016  134  2.75  3.95  2.8  7.6  2.7  59%  10%  45/18/37  24  80   12%   83

Hammel's skills have actually taken a step back in 2016:

• It was surprising that he struck out more than a batter per inning a season ago, and both his Dom and SwK have predictably regressed this year.
• He kept the walks to a minimum in 2014 and the first half of 2015, but has followed it up with a 2.9 Ctl in the second half and 2.8 this season. Given his below average FpK, his current mark is in line with what should be expected of him.
• He's had issues with the long ball in recent years, so it's encouraging that he's bumped up his ground ball rate a bit this season.
• His home run per fly ball rate is again above the league average, but he's had luck on his side with regards to his hit and strand rates.

Hammel has faded in the second half each of the last two seasons, but is going strong right now, having allowed only six runs in seven starts since his debacle against the Mets. That being said, his BPIs aren't as strong as they have been, as he's walking more batters and striking out fewer than he has the past couple seasons. Hammel should continue to be solid, and with a potent lineup behind him, will keep racking up the wins. But his xERA shows how lucky he's been so far, and when his hit and strand rates correct, his ERA is likely to rise.

 

Roark outpitching his skills ... After posting a 2.85 ERA as a starter in 2014, Tanner Roark (RHP, WAS) didn't even crack the team's Opening Day rotation in 2015. He ended up making 12 starts, but in all, recorded a 4.38 ERA and 5.7 Dom. He got his starting job back for 2016, and is at it again, with a 2.81 ERA. Was last year the outlier? 

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%  S%  hr/f  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ===  ===  ========  ==  ==  ====  ===
2013* 159  3.04  2.60  1.8  5.8  3.3  71%   7%  50/24/26  28  72    3%   99
2014  199  2.85  3.80  1.8  6.3  3.5  65%   9%  41/21/38  28  77    7%   84
2015  111  4.38  4.17  2.1  5.7  2.7  60%   8%  48/22/31  30  71   15%   71
2016  157  2.81  3.81  2.8  7.3  2.6  59%   9%  51/20/29  28  78    8%   86
*Includes MLEs

Roark's BPIs don't support this level of success:

• He's getting a few more swings and misses this year, but his SwK is still below average. His Dom has slipped to 6.2 in the second half and may continue to trend downward.
• He's been very stingy with the free passes prior to this season, but has had a little more trouble in that area this year, particularly early on, when he walked 20 batters in his first eight starts (3.6 Ctl). He's been better since, but his below average FpK doesn't hint at a return to previous levels.
• He is doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground, and has been aided by a home park that reduces home runs for hitters from both sides (-20% LHB, -12% RHB), allowing just four there in 84 innings.
• The three lowest scoring teams in the majors are in his division (Mets, Phillies, Braves), and he's feasted on them, with a 0.81 ERA across 44 1/3 innings. Against everyone else, he has a 3.59 ERA.

Roark's ground ball tilt sets a solid foundation, but these aren't the skills of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Given that he doesn't miss a ton of bats, his 7.8 first half Dom was a little over his head, and has started to correct, and he's been more generous with the walks this year. Roark should get plenty more chances against the weak NL East offenses, so he will be a viable option in most any format, but don't expect his ERA to stay this low.

 

First Impression: David Dahl (OF, COL)

STATS: Hartford/Albuquerque (AA/AAA) – 350 AB, .314/.394/.569, 27 2B, 18 HR, 0.47 Eye, 17 SB
CURRENT ROLE: Starting OF
POTENTIAL: Starting OF
RATING: 9C

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  Spd
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===
2015* 288   6/18  .274   N/A   3    75  N/A   N/A   96  N/A  152
2016   84   3/0   .345  .278   7    69   47    89  154   89  140
*MLEs

Dahl is off to a hot start:

• He had a 73 percent contact rate in the minors this season, and has struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats in the majors. His home park typically yields high hit rates, but his current 47 percent mark is clearly unsustainable.
• He showed much-improved power prior to his call-up, and it's been on display during his brief time with the Rockies as well.
• He's yet to attempt a stolen base, but with three triples already, and 17 steals in the minors this year, there's no denying he possesses outstanding speed.

Dahl ranked number 33 in this year's HQ100, and certainly hasn't disappointed. The 22-year-old displayed improved power and plus speed during half a season in the minors, and his success has carried over to the majors. His propensity to strike out, along with an extremely inflated hit rate, suggest that a fairly significant batting average correction is looming. But Coors Field sets a nice floor in that category, and with his power/speed combo, he could quickly emerge as a five-category stud.  

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